Behind the numbers: What really drives FIFA World Cup attendance? Lessons from the past and a look ahead to 2034

Understanding FIFA World Cup Demand: A Complex Puzzle

Understanding demand for the FIFA World Cup is like solving a fascinating puzzle. While it’s the world’s most-watched sporting event, fan attendance is not automatically guaranteed. A World Cup’s demand is shaped by unique and complex factors, and when we look at it from a tourism perspective, a host destination’s efforts to drive visitation must be built on top of these existing dynamics. Having worked on 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia? and FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022?, I’ve seen firsthand how demand is shaped, how it fluctuates, and how disruptions can impact attendance. As Saudi Arabia prepares to host FIFA World Cup 2034?, understanding these dynamics will be key to maximizing visitor volumes and ensuring a seamless event experience. So, who exactly comes to a World Cup, and why?

The Two Main Drivers of Demand: Who Comes and Why?

There are two main groups that drive demand—the ones who make the event happen and the ones who decide to attend as a matter of choice.

The Non-Negotiables: Those Who Must Be There

These individuals and organizations form the foundation of event demand. Participating teams don’t just arrive with the players; they bring an entire entourage of coaching staff, administration and medical teams, analysts, sponsors, friends & family, and sometimes technical support staff. Then, there are the event technical teams responsible for logistics, venue operations, security, and medical support, among others—not just inside the stadiums but across the entire host infrastructure. FIFA officials, dignitaries, and special invitees are always present, ensuring governance and representation. Broadcasters and media teams, a massive contingent, are responsible for bringing the tournament to billions of viewers worldwide. Entertainment crews and artists bring FIFA Fan Festivals and ceremonies to life, adding to the spectacle. And, of course, sponsors and commercial affiliates play a crucial role, activating marketing campaigns and corporate hospitality experiences that elevate the event’s global footprint. These groups are massive in size and provide a predictable baseline for accommodation, transportation, and service demand. But they don’t fill stadiums or drive tourism impact on their own.

The Fans: The True Game-Changers

The real game-changer in attendance is the fans—the people who actually have a choice. Unlike the working groups, their decision to attend is influenced by multiple factors, and this is where things get interesting.

How Fans Secure Their Tickets

Fans come through two primary ticketing pathways: official hospitality and general public ticket sales. Hospitality tickets, which, by major sporting event standards, typically make up 15 to 20% of total ticket sales, offer premium seating, access to lounges, dedicated parking, and other additional services within the stadium. Within a FIFA World Cup event, hospitality tickets are the only ones that can be purchased far ahead of time, long before general public tickets are released. They guarantee access to the matches of choice, allow for group sales, and can be bundled with additional travel services. Hospitality also runs extensive "follow your team" programs, allowing fans and operators to plan elaborate trips through the knockout stages. In contrast, general public tickets are released much closer to the event, with strict limits on the number of tickets an individual can buy and rigid resale policies. Within the last three World Cup editions tour operators could not purchase these tickets for resale purposes or bundle them into tour packages, making it more challenging to plan group travel.

Football Culture and Fan Travel Behavior

For fans, deciding whether to attend a World Cup is a major commitment and football fan culture plays a big role. Countries with deeply rooted football traditions consistently bring thousands of dedicated supporters, and fans of particularly football-centric nations like Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, may save up travel budgets for years just to follow their teams live. Fans of other countries, where football culture isn’t as strong, might opt to stay home and watch the matches in their favorite sports bar instead of traveling. And then there is also the sheer size of the football fan market, with larger nations like the USA, China, and India naturally having the potential for more traveling fans. Therefore, national team qualification is a massive factor and different teams have different “tourism demand potential” value.

A prominent example is the USA’s failure to qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. In the final stages of the CONCACAF qualification process, USA suffered a shocking 1-2 defeat to Trinidad and Tobago, missing out on a World Cup for the first time since 1986. As a result, Panama secured their first-ever World Cup appearance, and the tourism demand impact was significant. St. Petersburg had been planned as the USA team’s base, with thousands of hotel rooms reserved for the team, sponsors, and media. Overnight, that demand disappeared. Individual and corporate team followers who would have normally followed the team redirected their travel and hospitality budgets elsewhere and the overall impact from this massive fan market was far less than initially expected.

Beyond Ticketing: External Factors Shaping Demand

Beyond ticketing and qualification, other external factors can shape demand. For example, timing plays a role. FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022?, the first-ever winter World Cup, was scheduled in November-December due to the country’s climate. However, this timing coincided with school exams, year-end corporate pressures, and the pre-Christmas period in the Western world, all of which affected attendance patterns from traditionally strong football fan markets. Another external influencing factor example comes from AFC 2023, where China team was qualified, the football market in China is massive, but strict Covid-19 travel measures were still in place and fans missed seeing their national team play in Doha.

How Demand Fluctuates During the Tournament

A key consideration of event tourism demand is the fact that it is not linear; it fluctuates dramatically throughout the tournament. The highest demand falls in the first phase—the Group Stage—where all teams participate, and fixtures are known in advance. The Final Draw, typically held around six months before the tournament, sets the stage for fans to plan their trips. In contrast, the knockout stages, which now begin with a Round of 32 in the expanded format, bring uncertainty. Fans don’t know if their team is staying in the tournament and which venue they will be playing next, requiring them to make last-minute travel adjustments if they want to follow their team. Hospitality programs help solve this issue with "follow your team" packages that guarantee tickets and travel services regardless of venue, but most general admission fans must make decisions on the go.

This creates an uneven demand curve, with many travelling fans opting to attend only the Group Stage matches, which are planned well in advance. Once teams are eliminated and the overall number of participating teams drops, so does the number of traveling visitors. By the time the tournament reaches the semi-finals and final, the audience shifts toward prestige attendance—where the excitement of witnessing history drives demand, rather than loyalty to a particular team. This phase also sees heightened protocol attendance, with government officials, FIFA executives, and VIP guests filling 5-star hotels of key venues.

Looking Ahead to FIFA World Cup 2034?

Looking ahead to FIFA World Cup 2034?, Saudi Arabia has a unique opportunity to redefine the World Cup travel experiences. The lessons from Russia and Qatar provide valuable insights into optimizing fan visitation, ensuring balanced demand across host cities, and maximizing the event’s tourism impact. How do we establish Saudi Arabia not just as a World Cup host, but as a destination worth exploring beyond the matches? What strategies can be implemented to enhance accessibility, affordability, and overall fan engagement?

So, I leave you with these questions: What do you think are the biggest factors influencing fan attendance at a World Cup? Have you ever attended one, and what shaped your decision? Let’s start the conversation—because as Saudi Arabia prepares for 2034, understanding demand is more important than ever.

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