Behind Canada's 200K Job Loss in January, a Silver Lining
Toronto Region Immigrant Employment Council (TRIEC)
Championing the talents of newcomers, and building immigrant-inclusive workplaces in the Greater Toronto Region
Canada’s labour market shrank in January, shedding 200,000 jobs as work absenteeism rose during the Omicron wave.
One in 10 workers were absent from work due to illness or disability, a record level. Across the country, young people and women borne the brunt of job losses. For landed immigrants, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6% compared to that of December, when the economy added more jobs than analysts had anticipated.
Fret not. There is a silver lining.
In the West, the pandemic is likely to ease its grip on the economy as we learn to live with COVID-19. In his most sanguine comments about the virus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said this week that the U.S. was exiting the “full blown” pandemic phase, adding that “there’s no way we are going to eradicate this virus.”
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His remarks follow similar statements from health officials here in Canada, as the country lifts restrictions in fits and starts. To avoid economic disruptions, Western governments have gradually retired strict lockdowns. Australia is reopening its borders to vaccinated travelers, many states in the U.S. are dropping mask mandates and Denmark has lifted all COVID-19 restrictions. The message is loud and clear: COVID-19 will be a manageable risk, perhaps not unlike seasonal flu.
In Canada, while Omicron pummeled the services sector in January, some professions including healthcare have seen accelerated hiring. In recent weeks, Ontario introduced measures to make it easier for internationally trained nurses to work in the province. In a new survey by World Education Services, the proportion of respondents who believe COVID-19 has a positive impact on the job availability rose to 35% in 2021 from 27% a year prior, an increase owing to growing demand in sectors hungry for workers.
On the income front, average hourly wages in January rose?2.4%, down from?2.7% in November and December?last year.
The slower wage gain could soften the wage-inflation spiral—at least temporarily. Yet a new TD analysis predicts that faster wage growth “is just around the corner ,” giving workers unprecedented bargaining power. Amid high inflation and a tight job market, the Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates in March, a decision with wide implications for businesses and the broader economy.?