Is it 'the beginning' of 'the end' of SEO?

Nischal Sanghavi , Gateway Group of Companies

Last week at Google I/O, a groundbreaking announcement was made: AI-generated answers will soon be integrated into your search results, if they haven't been already.

The introduction of AI-driven responses raises a critical question: Will a chatbot-style interface replace the traditional search experience? If the answer to your query is immediately presented at the top of the search results, will this disrupt the flow of search traffic to individual websites?

John Herrman, writing for New York Magazine, eloquently captured this shift: “It’s a half-step into a future in which the internet, when given a query, doesn’t provide links and clues—it simply answers.” This succinctly summarizes the potential transformation from an information retrieval system that offers a plethora of links to one that provides direct, concise answers.

Casey Newton, in his blog Platformer, delves deeper into the ramifications of this change. While it might enhance user experience by providing faster, more straightforward answers, it could spell trouble for businesses, publishers, and content creators. “As the first day of I/O wound down, it was hard to escape the feeling that the web as we know it is entering a kind of managed decline," Newton observed. This sentiment reflects a growing concern that the traditional web ecosystem, which relies heavily on SEO and search traffic, may be on the brink of a significant downturn.

Writer's May Habib poignantly stated, "Google has burned the boats." This metaphor suggests that Google is fully committing to this new direction, with no intention of returning to the old ways of search.

This move is not unprecedented for Google. Historically, when the company perceives a threat to any segment of its business, it responds aggressively. A decade ago, Google+ was launched as a counter to the rising dominance of Facebook. Though it ultimately failed to gain traction, it exemplified Google's strategy of heavy investment in response to perceived threats.

Eric Solomon, A. Team CxO and former director at Google, highlighted the stakes involved: “This time, it’s the core of the business that’s being attacked. Google Search as the portal to the ‘web’ is slipping away fast.” This insight underscores the critical nature of the current challenge. Unlike past threats that targeted peripheral services, the core function of Google—search—is now at risk.

However, there is a significant complication in this plan. If publishers and creators experience a drop in revenue due to declining SEO traffic—some estimates predict losses of at least $2 billion annually—there will be less incentive for them to produce high-quality, original content. This could lead to a decrease in the amount of human-generated data available for training AI models, which in turn could impact the effectiveness and accuracy of these AI-generated answers.

This situation illustrates a potential vicious cycle: as AI-generated answers reduce the need for traditional search results, the resulting decline in web traffic and revenue could diminish the quality and quantity of new content. This, in turn, could limit the data available for AI training, potentially leading to a degradation in the quality of AI responses over time.

In essence, we may be witnessing the beginning of an AI ouroboros—where the system begins to consume itself, leading to a self-perpetuating decline. The future of search, content creation, and the very fabric of the internet as we know it hangs in the balance as these changes unfold. The full impact of these developments remains to be seen, but it is clear that the landscape of the web is undergoing a profound transformation.

Welcome to the unpredictable world of #AI