Is this the beginning of the end for Doug Ford?

Before I dive into politics, let me start by acknowledging that the COVID-19 crisis Ontario is facing, in the words of the OHA’s Anthony Dale, its most serious civil emergency in history. Many lives will be lost and many more will face long term injury in the days and weeks to come, no matter what choices are made by government from this point forward. Like most people, I hope that the Ontario government finds its feet and makes inspired choices that will keep the harm to a minimum in the coming days.

Yet here we are.

No matter how this pandemic ends, it will end, and politics will resume. Choices made by politicians now will have consequences then. And we can start to see those consequences now.

The government has had a tough two weeks. The spotlight is shining brightly on the Ontario PCs with INNOVATIVE’s latest poll showing 81% reporting they have read, seen, or heard something about the Doug Ford government in the past two weeks. To put that in context, the average budget has about 43% attention, so this is a critical moment n politics. That high level of engagement has not been good news for the PCs as more than twice as many feel less favourable (48%) rather than more favourable (21%) because of what they have heard.

This is not about specific decisions. Of the 535 Ontarians we interviewed last week, more than two thirds (69%) support the Ontario government’s four-week stay-at-home order. Despite that, the first three weeks of April in Ontario saw an 8-point drop from 41% to 30% approval for the provincial government’s handling of COVID-19.

So why is Ontario COVID -19 approval dropping faster than elsewhere? To me, it looks like a question of perceptions of leadership. Given the changes in COVID-19 policies we are seeing in many places in Canada, we asked Canadians whether these changes simply reflect the evolving nature of the virus and government’s best efforts to find the right balance, or if it shows governments don’t really have a plan and are just making things up as they go along. 

Nationally we find almost half (49%) feel changes in COVID-19 restrictions reflect the best efforts of government to find the right balance. However, in Ontario the numbers flip with a majority (54%) feeling the changes show the government has no plan. The government had been doing better earlier last week but lost ground after the announcement.

We find this feeling reflected in Ford’s personal numbers. The number of people who chose Ford as best Premier dropped from 37% in March, to 29% in the first two weeks of April, to 24% after Friday. Ford’s net favourables dropped 13-points in the first two weeks of April and another 8-points after Friday. 

The biggest concern for Ford is that much of the news coverage has been thematic rather than episodic. Episodic stories report the news as stand-alone events. Thematic stories connect the dots and report events as an example of bigger trends. Much of the COVID-19 stories in Ontario appear thematic, that is framing new developments as examples of Ontario government failures. The news stories since Friday seem to move even further in that direction.

Three key elements stand out in that narrative:

1.      The February 11th modelling briefing when TVO’s John McGrath asked, “Am I missing something here or is this presentation actually predicting a disaster?” and Dr. Steini Brown responding “No, I don’t think you are missing anything.”

2.      Charts that show the actual COVID caseload growing as predicted on February 11th.

3.      Doug Ford’s statements that the actual experience with COVID is worse than predicted.

Given the video of the February 11th McGrath/Brown exchange, it is not sustainable for the Premier to hold to his position that he was not warned. He will be held accountable for the choices the government made in February and March whether he accepts that or not.

So, what does this mean for Ontario politics?

Doug Ford has gone from being a drag on his party, to an asset for his party, and now is on his way back to being a drag.

If he continues on his current course and attempts to deny or shift responsibility, the only hope for a PC re-election will come from a split in the anti-Ford vote. That is possible but unlikely at the moment.

The core reality that the PCs face is that more people wake up every day feeling like Ontario Liberals than feeling like Ontario Tories. The chart above shows the underlying brand loyalty towards each of Ontario’s parties. This brand loyalty or party identification is stickier than vote and presents a tough challenge for the Ontario PCs.  The Tories must have a better campaign than the Liberals to overcome that core Liberal advantage. If the Premier is dragging the party down, they cannot succeed.

So, what can Doug Ford do now?

First and foremost, he must own up to the government’s failure to respond to the February 11th warning. If the Premier continues to suggest the experts did not warn Ontarians and tries to shift blame onto the feds, Ontarians will remain angry and unforgiving.

Second, the government must stop making decisions that broker interests and start making policy that solves the problem. The Ontario PCs have a strong tradition of brokerage politics from their Big Blue machine days, and for many issues it is a great model. It is a bad model for a pandemic at a crisis point.

The government must focus on one goal – wrestling the variant genii back into its bottle. The government should state clearly how it believes COVID is spreading and then adopt whatever policies are needed to achieve that goal.

Almost everyone likely to vote in the next election is watching Doug Ford now, and most of them do not like what they see. It may be too late to save him. If he does not manage to regain more of the public’s trust, it is almost certain the government will go down with him. If the Premier wants a chance to bounce back, he must change course now.