Before we set 'sustainability' goals, we need to understand how our world really works.

A plethora of Net Zero target pronouncements both by governments & institutions begs the question how many of these targets are actually attainable. A deeper assessment of how our world has evolved over centuries reveals that most of these targets are either impractical or even frivolous in some cases.

"How the world really works" by Vaclav Smil is a book which helps you with this assessment as it presents a detailed account of how the world's energy trends have evolved across generations and how we have an extremely high level of dependence on fossil fuels. Getting rid of this dependency any time soon is simply not possible. He covers a wide array of facts which clearly showcase why most of the Net Zero timelines laid out by policymakers and institutions are unattainable.

We need much more effort and seriousness if we really want to avert or limit the damage from climate change. Decades worth of planning and efforts and seamless global coordination is needed to shift humanity towards a relatively lower emission economy.

"How the world really works" is not the easiest book to read and some background in science helps. It's dense and packed with data and hard facts. One needs to reflect simultaneously while reading to make sense of the messages Vaclav is trying to drive. The core message being that the world is 'high' on its addiction to fossil fuels, which, in terms of energy efficiency, still have almost no credible alternatives to meet our ever-increasing energy needs.

Vaclav Smil: "We are slaves to fossil fuels. The global transition that we’ve only barely, unevenly, begun is not the work of years but decades, if not centuries."

Some astonishing facts which I personally never realized intuitively & which Vaclav was able to bring out strongly included:

• The stunning rise in per capita energy availability globally in the last 300+ years: Since the start of the 19th century (which is a very small duration vs. the overall timeline of humanity's existence) the per capita useful energy available has jumped an incredible 700+ times and is even higher in absolute terms given the sharp rise in population. This has primarily been due to the efficiencies we have gained from increasing fossil fuel adoption and innovations during this period.
• Despite so much attention on reduction in dependence on fossil fuels & increased adoption of renewable sources, the share of fossil fuels in the world's primary energy supply has barely moved since the turn of the century (87% in 2000 to 84% in 2019). Renewable energy sources are still quite far from offering the efficiency levels achieved through fossil fuel sources.
• Our dietary preferences are a key hindrance to positive sustainability outcomes - especially our penchance for an animal rich diet in most countries. Each of our food items can be mapped to the fossil fuel consumed given that food production has a lot of phases to arrive at our table: marketing, packaging, transportation, wholesale, retail service, household food storage, and preparation.

For e.g., roasted chicken costs 300-350 ml of crude oil, 210-250 mL/kg for bread, and two skewers of medium-sized wild shrimp require 0.5-1 liters of diesel.

• The most important material critical to human existence is not steel or plastics but "ammonia". Its absence can sharply end the high levels of agricultural efficiency which we have come to take for granted - and which supports our animal rich intake. Ammonia's absence can end at least 40% of humanity as food production would simply not be enough to support 8 billion+ people. While we can't change its usage overnight, reducing food wastage, using fertilizers efficiently & a radical shift towards plant based diet can help.
• Shift towards veganism is not helping because a much greater shift towards animal based food is happening in Asia & Africa where per capita income & food intake is gradually rising (especially in India, where bulk of the diet in recent history has been vegetarian - though a greater adoption of animal based food is seen).
• Electrification & batteries cannot be the answer unless electricity generation and battery development eliminate dependence on fossil fuels from all underlying processes whether it be mining or production/ manufacturing. Hence, while shift towards EVs is a great development but it would bring limited benefit if manufacturing batteries and mining lithium and other minerals remains fossil fuel dependent.

A typical lithium car battery weighs ~450kgs and requires extracting & processing worth 225 tons of raw materials. Given the rapid rise in EV adoption, the need for both Lithium & Cobalt is expected to increase by a factor of at least 17-18 times by 2050 (vs. 2020 levels) and mining this new demand would require massive earth moving globally. This won't be possible without fossil fuels playing a major part.

• Globalization is heavily dependent on the use of fossil fuels. Entire aviation & trade has become possible only because of energy efficient fossil fuels driving massive container ships and airplanes. Most economies are no longer self sufficient and a sharp cut down on fossil fuels without credible energy alternatives driving trade, the global economy would simply halt.

E.g., Canada, blessed with greater forest acreage than any affluent nation, saves money by importing toothpicks from China.

• We are simply not preparing or can even prepare for new & emerging risks. Covid 19 was a big example of how underprepared the world is even when solutions are right in front of us and also showcased our total complete incompetence to effectively coordinate our efforts globally. For instance, one major risk most people don't even know about is solar geostorm. If a geostorm with the intensity of the September 1859 event (known as Carrington event) hits earth now, all satellites, telecom networks, GPS, internet & electrical infrastructure can be severely damaged sharply pushing us back by years. Read more here: https://www.space.com/the-carrington-event

space.com: "Researchers from Lloyd's of London and the Atmospheric and Environmental Research agency in the U.S. have estimated that a Carrington-class event today would result in between $0.6 and $2.6 trillion in damages to the U.S. alone."

• We are not at the risk of running out of Oxygen (as claimed by a few proponents of climate change): Even if every plant/ tree on this planet is burnt, the Oxygen concentration in our atmosphere won't change much from the current 21% (Oxygen's share in atmosphere would go down a mere 0.1%pts). The much bigger worry would be the increased share of CO2 - which will elevate Earth's average temperature - & air pollutants.
• The world throws out a third of its food. The world sees significant wastage due to (1) irresponsible behavior by large segments of population - especially those who can easily afford food and (2) inefficient or non existing cold chain infrastructure - which leads to excessive spoilage - especially in the developing world.

Sustainability is not a simple checklist & political or corporate gimmickry can at best win elections and improve bottom lines. But to achieve real results & before we set sustainability goals, it is imperative to comprehend the workings of our world. This understanding can only be achieved through comprehensive research and analysis of the complex interplay of natural and human-made systems that govern our planet.

We must strive to develop sustainable solutions that are rooted in scientific evidence, and are capable of tackling the challenges of a changing climate. By enhancing our knowledge of the Earth's systems, we can establish sustainability goals that are realistic, impactful, and grounded in scientific fact. Only then can we work towards a more sustainable future, and a planet that is resilient in the face of climate change.