Before it's too late, let’s shift our attention to Africa
Often, I find myself expressing our responsibility toward future generations, in many areas, through these pages. And my thought is that if we are not careful, those who will be alive and active in 2050 will curse those who were in 2020, for doing nothing to save them from the hell they’ve entered.
This is not only true for the climate, for public debt, or for lack of control of technologies, in particular artificial intelligence. These issues are still perfectly manageable today, but it will probably not be the case in 30 years.
But there is also another topic that we do not talk about in similar terms: Africa.
Of course, this continent is the topic of conversations when it comes to demography, poverty, war, or migration. But do we see that the dynamic that is installing itself there is deadly for the world, and especially for Europe?
In 30 years, Africa will have more than 2 billion inhabitants. Though it is likely that a middle class and a well-to-do bourgeoisie will have developed there, it is also certain that, if current trends continue, more than one billion of its inhabitants will suffer severely from various shortcomings: water, food, education, healthcare, housing and employment.
There will also be many more roads, trains, cars, trucks, trains, seaports and boats, airports and planes on this continent than there are today. Her population will be infinitely more mobile than they already are.
The poorest, as well as the poorer, will therefore have many reasons and means to move to any of the other continents. And if only one percent of them decide to do it every year, 200 million Africans will try this adventure in a decade.
Asia will then be a continent experiencing full growth and America will remain coveted. But it is most likely that Africans will turn toward Europe: we are, and will still be, the richest continent, offering the best quality of life; and also the closest, geographically. As such, every year, several million Africans will try to come to Europe.
What will happen then? What will happen even before this situation arises?
Will the magnificent reaction of the Spanish people sustain an influx of one hundred, two hundred or 2000 boats that are equivalent to the Aquarius? The German and Italian people, so welcoming at the beginning, could not sustain this and became hostile. The French people already are, without even having been as generous as these neighbours.
Europe will then probably try to close itself to Africa. Our fleets of war, which will drive back those who will try to cross it, will constantly patrol the Mediterranean.
Some will find this situation ideal: Africans, they will say, will be forced to take control, manage their fate, and develop their internal market. And the Europeans will stay among themselves.
But, very quickly, they will be disillusioned by the consequences: Because, we will not be able to maintain balanced relationships with these countries, and we better not hope to obtain their raw materials or sell them our products anymore. They will turn to China and we can say goodbye to these formidable markets and to the Francophonie project.
Moreover, Africans will react by finding ways to circumvent these prohibitions; and unless these boats with migrants are bombed, more and more of the will continue to pass. All in all, Europe will lose its soul, democracy will not be sustained, the standard of living of Europeans will be at stake, and we will be at permanent war on our borders.
To avoid this disaster, we have no other solution than to understand, as soon as possible, that it is in our interest to massively develop this neighbouring continent, to help speed up its demographic transition as quickly as possible; to organize the welcoming of migrants from inside the continent; and to create the conditions in our countries for a temporary or lasting welcome and integration into our cultures (that they will take home if they return) of millions of people coming from this cradle of humanity.
And not only in our football teams.
Architecting the future of mobility
6 年Great article, some people are already playing their part in an amazing yet simple way: 'One cashew at a time" and its working ! https://www.cajouespoir.com/untitled?
Consultant connecting global stakeholders to opportunities in Africa for collaborations, partnerships, concession management, contract farming and investment.
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Enseignant Anglais Professionnel
6 年I would like to go back with you to the debate we had 3 weeks ago on Mr Attali's article " before it's too late..' Please watch this video that sums it all.?
Retired PCM / now images maker ...
6 年I live it from the inside in Egypt. Yes Jacques, you vision is right and I feel that rather than to face the facts as such the so called western population prefers to contemplate their navels and choses to 'believe' it will not happen. Two remarks about that: - The 'ostriched' western population pretends to be a model of civilisation, the unique one for the human specie, say an unavoidable universal direction. A built in element of this 'culture' is the so called democratic process of election : let's give someone the THE responsibility and wash our hands. This is to say that one or several governments are not the only decision makers in every things, they simply obey their followers-supporters, never mind if those supporters change their way of thinking in the middle of the river. - Sorry to kill your argument about the Chinese impact on Africa but at my view this is a secondary input in the African apparent mess. Beside you very well highlight the balance of the African society between to casts: the poor populace versus the riches. In the best case let's bet on a 50% share between the two parts. Not long ago what was about France was also living a sort of tribes status (feudality) and education and health (to limit the subject) were initiated developed and sustained, not by the Lords, Kings and Princes, but by the most educated of the christians, their clergy: monks and 'curés' were teachers, professors and doctors. The money was coming from the riches to pay a social quietness but also to cover their needs. And it has worked well, at least at our today satisfaction. Now let us imagine the transfer of data to Africa today: population in numbers, general live style, climatological conditions, real gap in the life style between poor and riches, communication means (travels, information), communication speed ... Amazingly modern "monks and curés" are already there (Evangelits, Muslims, ONG -!-), just because the Presidents-Kings are also seating the thrones. But the live style and the technology are quit different: the todays Kings have learned the usage of the communication technology as a soft weapon toward their own people (in what they just copy the westerners !). Jacques, don't you think that nowadays communication is of the essence ? I am sure you do. Don't you think that nowadays most of the communication is not implementing knowledge and social dimension of the 'receivers' but at the the contrary promotes individualisme and blind consumerism ? Why (worldwide) are medias ignoring education, health, social behaviours (at home, in the street, at school, at the office, ...). Why are the medias oriented to individual freedom (with thousands of reading of these two words) ? And in that direction only (save some rare TV channels and confidential social networks). I guess that if and when we'll have the beginning of a change in the flying messages falling by hundreds on each individual TV set and cell phone in Africa (likewise everywhere) things may possibly change. Often the migrants are individualists leaving a land with very ancient social traditions (evolving for the benefit of the people) to reach highly individualistic societies which reject them. Paradox. Is there a remedy ? I doubt, I'm a man of your age. I witness the efforts (some) African people (of white and black Africas) are producing and on the other hand, like yourself, I witness the lack of good will not to speak about the today hostility of parts or all of the western world. "Le Christ a dit qu'il était venu pour séparer l'époux de la femme, la mère de ses enfants, le frère de sa soeur, l'ami de l'ami; et sa prédiction ne s'est que trop fidèlement accomplie." (Diderot) Hum ! "Vanité, vanité, tout n'est que vanité" (B. Pascal) Re HUM ! Bien à vous cher Jacques, HP.Guillerme