Beating the odds: How to win in a zero-sum environment.

“Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up, it knows it must outrun the fastest lion or it will be killed. Every morning in Africa, a lion wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the slowest gazelle, or it will starve. It doesn't matter whether you're the lion or a gazelle-when the sun comes up, you'd better be running.”

―Christopher McDougall

I'm a firm believer in Win-Win partnerships. In my career I was brought up on the philosophy that brands, distributors, retailers, and brokers can create wealth together by solving problems for stakeholders throughout the value chain.

There is a lot of truth to this. A differentiated product which sells well because it addresses a consumer need/want brings value to everyone from the raw materials producers to the end user.

Alas, there are physical limitations to this altruistic synergy. Not to be cynical, but brick and mortar retail grocery is almost always a zero-sum game for emerging brands.

Until someone invents the “shelf stretcher” there are a finite amount of 4-foot sets in any given store. There are FAR more SKUs in the marketplace in any given category, than there are retail shelf placements to fit them all.

Here’s the empirical reality:

Every time we see a growth brand founder celebrate a “big win” in front of their dream retailer, 95%+ of the time that means someone else’s brand is being discontinued to make room for it.

It feels insensitive to talk about it, because usually it isn't a big multinational CPG brand that is getting kicked off the shelf to make room for the new placement...it's usually an emerging brand which was built by human beings as a passion project.

Retailers have bills to pay, and it's a tough, labor-intensive low-margin business. They are paying rent on their stores, and ever linear foot of shelf space in every store needs to pay IT'S rent, or the business model breaks down.

Most retail buyers have enough of a self-preservation instinct to act accordingly. If product doesn't perform, it doesn't last very long, and it gets discontinued.

When this happens, the key criterion is almost always simple unit velocity...products with above-average units/store/week very rarely get discontinued.

In very real granular terms, if you want to get into retailer “X” you are looking to remove someone else’s product from the shelf and replace it with yours.

It’s important to know specifically what that product is, how much it costs, how it performs, and how your product can out-compete it.

The one universal truth is that EVERY buyer needs to drive positive comp sales week-by-week. If your product can help them achieve this, you will create a win-win partnership.

As an innovation brand, if you can clearly articulate through Ingredient profile, data, marketing strategy, attributes, demographics and packaging design that your product is likely to outsell one or more products on the shelf, you have a very good place of winning that dream placement.

Every retailer is different, and each CM has their own goals and objectives. Some are more risk-tolerant than others and will take more chances on a product which might sell well. Others won't take a risk on a new product unless you can literally guarantee that it will sell well.

Believe it or not, one of the most common questions I hear from buyers in our Innovation meetings every week is “Do you have anything for me which is selling extremely well which I can cut in off-cycle?”

Think about that...buyers are just as eager to make the sale as the brands are. So much so, that they will deviate from their own established processes and timelines to shoehorn a product in...and kick another product out in the process.

Make sure it isn't yours. Demo the product, promote the product, evangelize the product. Listen to customers. Discontinue slow-moving SKUs and replace them with new ones that sell better. Refresh the packaging. Improve the recipe. Lower the price.

Don't be the slowest Gazelle