‘Beans there, done squat

WORLD: Brazil’s soybeans are now the growing weather worry.? Wheat worries become more about cold-event risk for now.?

AUSTRALIA: Australia’s winter crops likely continue shrinking this week – but no faster than anticipated.? The west’s worries though will widen.

AUSTRALIA: The west’s worries widen.?

Australia’s winter crops likely continue shrinking this week – but no faster than anticipated.?

Western Australia

• Weather forecasters expect another week of little rain and warm-to-high temperatures in the west.?
• Yield losses likely continue in the wheatbelt’s northern half.?
• We have put several more central regions on ‘watch’.?
• The southern half is more mixed because the scant rain will fall here and so it remains open to good fortune.?

Analysts are still likely downgrading their crop forecasts.? Those downgrades most likely support-or-raise local prices.? The smaller risks to wheat crops elsewhere in the world mean basis is biased higher.?

Southern Australia

Southern Australia’s Watchlist status is unchanged this week.

• Weather forecasters expect some light rain through most crop regions in South Australia and western Victoria next week.?
• These regions are yet to see sustained seasonal warming.?
• Higher temperatures would manifest the lack of moisture in watch-listed regions.?

Eastern Australia

?The Watchlist’s take on eastern crop regions is little changed.?

• The region’s experience will likely continue to be diverse.?
• Queensland regions bordering NSW and Walgett likely continue to see yield declines.?
• Other northern NSW regions continue to get a little weather luck.?
• The rest of the region is looking okay for at least another week.?

Crop worries in the south and east remain.? The triggers though for further cuts to crop forecasts are, for now, absent. ?So, for now, support is modest for further local price gains.? The usual seasonal temperature rise is behind schedule.? Higher temperatures would activate some dormant moisture issues in several regions.? That activation would be supportive for prices.?

WORLD: ‘Beans there, done squat.?

Brazil’s soybeans are now the growing weather worry.?

Wheat worries become more about cold-event risk for now.?

Southern summer crops

Central Brazil’s dry summer crop regions are likely to look better in the east and worse in the west.?

• Weather forecasters again expect useful rain in east-central Brazil this week.?
• So, the regions around the border junction of Bahia, Goias and Minas Gerais are off ‘watch’.?
• This evolution reduces market worries about first-crop corn.?
• West-central Brazil remains worrisome.?
• Forecasters expect that region to get a little rain this week.?
• The rain amounts, and the likely still cracking pace of evaporation, mean any widespread soil moisture gains are unlikely.?
• So, worries about Brazil’s soybean crops will persist until the weather improves.?
• And those worries will slowly increase because Brazil soon crosses the halfway point of ‘bean planting.?

Argentina’s summer crop regions continue to have material dry areas.

• Weather forecasters are expecting some further rain in Argentina in the week ahead.?
• North and the north-central regions though are unlikely to see much of that rain.?
• Higher temperatures in those regions also likely mean any moisture gains are short-lived.?

South America’s crop issues are likely to become much more soybean-centric.? Brazil’s centre-east summer crop regions likely get more rain this week.? If rain forecasts are realised, then worries about Brazil’s first crop corn will shrink.? Worries about Brazil’s soybeans though likely grow this week.

Southern winter crops

Argentina’s wheat crop remains unlikely to shrink further for the time being.?

Northern winter crops

Ukraine’s south remains a ‘watch’.?

• Weather forecasters expect a little rain in the ‘watch’ regions – much like last week.?
• The moisture gains though are again likely marginal.?
• The crops in those regions will remain vulnerable to cold.?

The eastern half of Russia’s Southern District continues at ‘alert’.?

• Weather forecasters expect only light rain in those dry regions.?
• Immature crops, likely in poor condition, are vulnerable to cold.?

In Europe, worries about the south-east again extend.?

• The ‘watch’ region now includes more of southern and south-eastern Bulgaria.?
• Weather forecasters expect little rain in the region.
• And temperatures will likely be warm enough that zero moisture matters.?
• So, these regions remain on watch or worse for another week.?
• Crops in these regions also remain vulnerable to cold snaps.?

US winter wheat crops will continue to be vulnerable to cold snaps for another week or so.?

A hefty chunk of US Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat regions remains on ‘watch’.?

• Weather models are proffering rain for the dry chunk – forecasters though are highly sceptical.?
• Weather forecasters do expect rain in some HRW regions next week – but not in that dry chunk.?
• And most of the dry chunk has now been that way for a couple of months.
• So, crops there are likely feeble and so vulnerable to cold until covered by snow.?

In the US north-west, forecasters expect temperatures to fall this week.?

• Crops in the dry regions are still vulnerable to cold snaps.?
• Those dry regions have started to accumulate snow cover but not yet enough to scratch them from The Watchlist.?

Worries about wheat crops remain.? The biggest worries are the poor establishment in the US and the Black Sea.? Those systematic worries though will now only manifest next year.? The immediate threats to wheat are ‘event’ risks.? Feeble crops in the worrisome regions are vulnerable to cold snaps.? Those snaps though are unusual, so anticipation in crop forecasts and prices is minimal. ?Rather cold snaps sit as a largely unpriced, dormant issue that can cause sharp price jumps.? Importantly too, the snaps only present a risk to crops until they are safely quilted under snow.?