Bayesian Thinking Issue #4: Would You Pay $9.99 a month for your privacy?

Last week, when I opened Instagram on my phone, I received a notification that I could either subscribe to Meta, or continue for free, with ads. I didn’t hesitate to hit subscribe. Would you?

I’d say my privacy is worth the €9.99 a month I’m now paying Meta to use its products without ads (if you read the fine print the rate increases to €20 in March 2024).??

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The introduction of Meta's subscription model aligns with Europe's robust consumer protection stance, reflecting the EU's commitment to safeguarding user privacy. The company formerly known as Facebook was fined $1.3 billion in May for violating EU data privacy laws. To address the EU’s concerns, the Silicon Valley corporation sent the message to all users in Europe as the line between public and private and ads and entertainment continues to blur.?

When I signed up for Facebook in 2004 while a junior at 美国印地安那大学伯明顿分校 , I, like everyone else with social media accounts, was voluntarily putting on golden handcuffs, locked in to giving away my personal data to use a “free” service. With Facebook profiles the only way to stay in touch with some high school friends, distant and maybe not so distant family members, and to even find the love of your life (do you remember the poke?), we can’t back out, especially now that we have Instagram and WhatsApp are part of the Zuckerberg empire.

In a 2010 article from Chris Dixon, Facebook was the equivalent of the Eagles Hit Hotel California — “You can check out any time but you can never leave.”

As naive as we may have been about the consequences of sharing photos of our summer vacations, parties, and favorite inspirational quotes with a company in the business of selling ads, Facebook’s intentions were clear from day one. But we weren’t paying attention.?

Instead of creating a website to tell the world about you, Facebook made it turnkey. No lost time deciphering HTML, or Wordpress templates, or CSS (I just launched my website, and as a product, I see the logic of Facebook). Anyone can create a Meta account and go viral with their daily insights about what makes them, their skills, and their perspective about the world special.?

I’m not an influencer (yet), although my friends might say differently about my posts about climbing, mountains, and photography. I receive a ton of ads for yoga/ hip exercises to my disdain. I don't like being sold to and if I get an ad for flexibility, I would never click on it on principle. But we’re reaching a point where it’s hard to tell what’s an ad and what isn’t.

We’re almost 20 years into the social media experiment and if you zoom out we’re at a massive exponential inflation point in humanity. Having passed through the Hunter-Gatherer, Agrarian, and Industrial Ages, we’re now in the early stages of the Information Age.

Some futurists speculate about what might come next. This hypothetical Speculative Future or Post-Information Age might involve advancements in AI, biotech, and quantum computing, leading to profound changes in how humans live and work (or as Elon Musk has said, no need to work, unless we really want to).

?? The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence - Part 1

?? The AI Revolution: Our Immortality or Extinction - Part 2

If you want to understand more about what’s happening to us in the “Information Age,” I recommend reading The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age. James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg’s research published in 1997, while it feels like sci-fi at times, is alarmingly on point.

"The Sovereign Individual" argues that as society becomes increasingly digital and interconnected, individuals will gain more control over their lives and finances.?

I hope part of that is truly owning our data (although we are not there yet), because a choice to disconnect from the ad-driven model is not a convenience — it's a human right.?

Video: Chris Dixon, a partner at Andreessen Horowitz and an internet historian, is featured in this Tim Ferriss episode. It's a great listen to learn about the past, present, and future of the internet, including discussions on how Web3 could help shift us away from a model where users are exploited for the benefit of advertisers, the actual customers of Meta.\

The more opportunities we have to own our information and be sovereign individuals leaves us less vulnerable to the Metaverse and those that need our information to make a profit.?

In an era where artificial intelligence and digital interconnectedness redefine our lives, the choices we make today will shape the fabric of our digital future and help keep us human, not robots.

What is Bayesian Thinking?

Each of us has a spectrum of beliefs across many topics and perspectives. From 18th-century British philosopher Thomas Bayes, Bayesian Thinking is a compass guiding us closer to the truth.

Bayesian theory includes:

1) Refrain from attributing absolute certainty to any belief.

2) Remain open to adjusting convictions based on new evidence.

With this mindset, I’ll share my take on current events, impactful ideas, and sustainability, in this bi-monthly LinkedIn newsletter.

Why sustainability? At work, I spend my time helping companies engage stakeholders in order to reach Net Zero with AWorld. On weekends, you’ll find me climbing around the Alps, maybe with a camera or drone in tow.

Here's some more about me and the things I do.

Amid the information age, I’m grateful for the technology that lets us connect with people worldwide. Hopefully, tech will also help solve the climate crisis.

-Rick