Battling the Heatwave: Natural Rubber Industry braces for Super El Ni?o.

In Southeast Asia, April and May usually mark the peak of the hot season, with temperatures soaring before the monsoon rains provide some respite. However, this year, the region witnessed unprecedented heat levels in most countries, even in popular tourism destinations like Thailand and Vietnam. The temperatures reached record-breaking highs during these months, surpassing anything experienced in the past. This extraordinary heatwave pose a significant risk to the agricultural sector in this vital region, which plays a pivotal role in producing palm oil, natural rubber, rice, coffee beans, and other essential commodities. Additionally, the rapidly expanding manufacturing industry might face challenges due to potential strains on water and power supplies.?

El Ni?o Unleashed: A Look Back in Time

Throughout history, El Ni?o events have consistently disrupted weather patterns in Southeast Asia, leading to prolonged droughts and scorching temperatures. Countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam have borne the brunt of these past El Ni?o occurrences.

During El Ni?o, the region experiences a marked reduction in rainfall, adversely affecting the growth of rubber trees and impacting latex production. Moreover, the dry spell heightens the vulnerability of rubber trees to diseases and pests, compounding the challenges faced by the industry. In 2019, a moderate El Ni?o contributed to devastating land and forest fires in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, resulting in estimated losses of $5.2 billion according to the World Bank.

What to Expect this Time: Super El Ni?o

How bad could it be? On June 8, 2023, the National Weather Service reported the presence of El Ni?o conditions, which are expected to gradually intensify as we approach the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023-24. Climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera revealed historic heat records across Southeast Asia; Thailand experienced its hottest day ever recorded on April 15 this year, reaching a scorching 45.4 degrees Celsius (114 degrees Fahrenheit). Laos witnessed consecutive days of extreme heat, with temperatures peaking at 43.5 degrees Celsius (110 degrees Fahrenheit) in May. Additionally, Vietnam also encountered a new all-time high in early May, soaring to 44.2 degrees Celsius (112 degrees Fahrenheit). These record-breaking temperatures highlight the severity of the heatwave in the region, raising concerns about the impacts of climate change on extreme weather events. As other climate scientists warn of an anticipated prolonged El Ni?o in the Southeast Asia region, the natural rubber industry braces itself for potential challenges in the coming months.

The region can expect heightened water stress, reduced latex yields, and increased production costs during this prolonged El Ni?o event. The lack of water availability could lead to higher irrigation demands, further straining resources and intensifying the impact on small-scale rubber farmers. The US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has projected an 84 per cent likelihood of a strong El Nino event, with a 25 per cent chance of an even more intense occurrence referred to as a "Super El Nino."

Impact on Production: Riding the Heatwave

Reduced Latex Yields:

The prolonged dry conditions during El Ni?o are likely to reduce latex yields per rubber tree, directly impacting the production output. Lower latex yields translate to reduced revenue for rubber producers, thereby affecting the overall economic performance of the industry.

In a study conducted by the Rubber Research Institute of India, located in Kottayam, Kerala, the impact of climatic variables on the latex yield of natural Hevea trees was examined.

The study identified the optimal weekly weather conditions associated with the best latex yields, which included a maximum temperature of 30.4 degrees Celsius, a minimum temperature of 22.8 degrees Celsius, 5.9 hours of sunshine, and 72 mm of rain. It was also noted that any deviation from these meteorological conditions for up to six months could significantly affect latex production.

Among the climatic variables, the research highlighted that higher temperatures, longer sunshine duration, increased vapor pressure deficit, and higher pan evaporation rates showed significant negative correlations with latex yield, regardless of the time period considered. On the other hand, there was a significant positive association between rainfall lasting more than one month and latex yield.

Increased Production Costs:

To counter the water scarcity, rubber plantations may be forced to implement costly irrigation systems, leading to higher production costs. These expenses, coupled with reduced yields, could potentially lead to a slump in profitability for rubber growers.

Threat of Diseases and Pests:

The vulnerability of rubber trees to diseases and pests is amplified during dry periods. Plantations may witness a surge in pest infestations and diseases, necessitating increased investments in pest management and disease control measures.

Mitigation Strategies: Nurturing Resilience

While the challenges posed by a prolonged El Ni?o are significant, the natural rubber industry in Southeast Asia can take proactive steps to mitigate its impact and enhance resilience:

Water Management and Conservation:

Optimal water management practices become imperative during dry periods. Employing water-conserving irrigation methods, embracing rainwater harvesting, and implementing water resource reuse strategies can significantly alleviate water stress on rubber plantations. By adopting such water-saving initiatives, the natural rubber industry can enhance its resilience and sustainable growth even during challenging climatic conditions. The Malaysia's National Disaster Management Agency recently took proactive steps to address water scarcity in the northern region of Peninsula Malaysia. In June, they initiated cloud seeding as a means of artificially inducing rain. This approach aims to replenish water levels in major dams, responding to warnings issued by the Meteorological Department regarding diminishing water supplies.

Diversification:

Diversifying crops can act as a buffer during El Ni?o's adverse effects on natural rubber. Integrating alternative crops alongside rubber plantations can offer supplementary income and reduce reliance on a single commodity.

Research and Development:

Channelling resources into research and development to cultivate drought-tolerant and disease-resistant rubber varieties represents a crucial investment that can fortify the natural rubber industry against the adversities of an extended El Ni?o period. By developing rubber trees with enhanced resilience with improved yield, the industry can better endure the water scarcity and unfavourable conditions posed by such climatic events.

For example, the average rubber yield achieved by Malaysian smallholders stands at approximately 1400 kg per hectare per year, significantly lower than the theoretically attainable yield of 7000–12,000 kg per hectare per year. This yield disparity may arise from various factors, such as crop genetics, environmental conditions, and agronomic practices. To enhance smallholder productivity and defense against fluctuating weather conditions, one effective approach involves developing new rubber varieties that are well-suited to their specific environment, capable of delivering consistent and high yields. Rubber research institutions frequently engage in breeding programs to identify superior clones exhibiting robust growth and maintaining high yields during the harvesting phase. Additionally, these institutions explore opportunities to expedite the breeding cycle, aiming to accelerate the availability of improved rubber cultivars to benefit smallholder farmers.

Conclusion

As the natural rubber industry prepares for the upcoming prolonged El Ni?o, a unified effort is required to implement sustainable practices and proactive strategies to weather the heatwave. Drawing valuable lessons from past experiences and embracing innovative approaches will empower Southeast Asia's rubber industry to safeguard its future sustainability and resilience amidst the climatic challenges. By fostering collaboration, investing in research and development, and prioritizing adaptation measures, the industry can effectively navigate the adverse effects of El Ni?o and continue thriving in the face of climatic uncertainties, securing the region's prominence as a key player in global rubber production.

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