Battle of UP

In the history of India, Uttar Pradesh (UP) has unique position, be it linkages with Ramayana or Mahabharata or India’s struggle for independence or post-independence administration, Uttar Pradesh has played a significant role. Total Uttar Pradesh population is over 200 Million and this number is just behind Indonesia, world’s 4th largest population.  It has area of more than 240 thousand square km.

Uttar Pradesh is so dominating in the Indian Politics that it sends 80 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 30 MPs to the Rajya Sabha. Today, it is unthinkable for anyone to gain power in the central government without gaining these crucial seats from Uttar Pradesh. While this can be considered as pride for many people who are living there but this same is the big administrative challenge for the local government and it is clearly reflected in the Human Development Index of the state.

As per the UNDP report Uttar Pradesh alone has approximately 73 Million poor people in the world! It ranked 20th out of 23 states in the Human Development Index but if this number was to be compared with international ranking it will be closer to 170 while India International ranking is about 130. Which means it would have been ranked among the bottom most nations of the world.

One of the arguments has been made that for administrative purposes perhaps there should be smaller states but is there any data which favours this argument? First state which should be compared is Uttarakhand which was carved out of Uttar Pradesh in 2000 and today it ranks 11th among 23 states. Other geographically smaller states like Himachal Pradesh ranks 3rd, Punjab 5th and Goa 6th.

Way back in November 2011 itself, State assembly cleared the motion for 4 way split of the state into Paschim Pradesh, Awadh Pradesh, Purvanchal and Bundelkhand. The potential capital cities for these administrative entities could be Meerut, Lucknow, Varanasi/Allahabad and Jhansi. Can you believe all the places of immense historical and cultural importance!

So where is the issue? In my view the timing for this creation of administrative entity is now and it will not happen for any other sane reason but to win the elections!!!

State reorganization bill would have to be cleared by parliament. Lok Sabha is controlled by Bharatia Janata Party led alliance and in Rajya Sabha congress holds 64 seats out of 245. Elections in Uttar Pradesh are due in 2017 and unless steps are taken now it won’t be reality to see smaller states in near term.

Key question is why would BJP want it considering that BJP won almost all parliamentary seats from UP and can dream about forming its own government in state? Answer lies in the change in voting pattern for central and state elections and as BJP has also experienced that in the absence of any credible face in time for Chief Minister's post, it runs risk of losing the plot. When it comes to credible face today it has challenges in finding a name which has clear top of mind recall of being acceptable across UP but when it looks from the perspective of four states it can find leaders with regional appeal and BJP has clear chances of making government in smaller states.

Now if BJP finds merit in the case the bill will be passed in Lok Sabha.

Now comes Rajya Sabha, where as per the latest data, parties have following strength, Congress 64, BJP 49, Samajwadi Party 15,Janta Dal (U) 13, AIDMK 12, TMC 12,  BSP 10, etc. So it is most important to understand why Congress and JDU will support the bill as BSP is known to be supporter of the bill and their government only in 2011 had cleared motion in the state.

Congress, has not been in power in UP since 1989, upon rise of regional parties, almost 3 decades!!! Party needs to think what are its realistic chances of making government in next elections? As of now it almost has none but if there are smaller states. In smaller constituencies its loyal vote share can create a reasonable chance.

Now next significant entity is JD (U) which aims to be establish itself a national party and in the present case it is trying to grow beyond Bihar and Jharkhand and it has strong chances of making inroad in Purvanchal if it supports the idea.

Samajwadi Party has to face incumbency factor. It may not like the idea as its vote bank spreads across state but if it opposes the bill it will alienate the voters and risks losing further vote share as voters prefer idea of being closer to power rather than being far away. They would have to support it reluctantly.

Rest of the parties will vote as per their potential regional impact but the above mentioned parties would more or less settle the issue and can usher a new era in the lives of citizen of this state.

Once again it is rare chance in the administrative history of India and hope elected representative do not miss the opportunity.

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Prakash Singh is currently Director with EY in India. Views are personal.