The Battle for Top 4: Analyzing Manchester United's Chances in the 2024-2025 EPL Season

As a Manchester United fan, the anticipation surrounding the arrival of a new manager this week has certainly stirred up the fanbase and the football world alike. The question on everyone's mind: How is the season going so far, and can Manchester United break into the top 4? The Premier League standings are incredibly tight this year, with many pointing to the fact that the top 4 race could still be wide open. But is there any real hope for the Red Devils to recover and secure a coveted UEFA Champions League spot?

Recently, much buzz has surrounded the idea that 80% of the variance in league standings is already established by match week 10. This statistic, widely shared across sports commentary, is based on studies like those by Clive B. Beggs, Alexander J. Bond, Stacey Emmonds, and Ben Jones, who have analyzed historical Premier League data to examine how much of the league’s outcomes are predicted by the results leading up to mid-season. With Manchester United currently not in the top 4, is there still a chance for the team to finish strong? Let’s dive into the data and see what the numbers tell us.

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Methodology:

To answer the question of whether Manchester United can recover and make a late-season push for the top 4, we need to look at two key statistical tools: Spearman's rank correlation and Normalized Kendall Tau distance.

Spearman's Rank Correlation

Spearman's correlation is a non-parametric test that measures the strength and direction of the monotonic relationship between two variables. For example, in the context of league standings, it can be used to assess the correlation between teams’ positions in one match week with their positions in a later match week. A strong positive Spearman correlation implies that teams with higher rankings in one week are likely to maintain their positions throughout the season.

Normalized Kendall Tau Distance

Kendall Tau is a measure of correlation that compares the number of concordant and discordant pairs of items between two rankings. When normalized, it becomes a useful tool for understanding how rankings in one match week correlate with later weeks. It helps us measure how much of the variation in league standings is explained at any given point during the season.

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Analysis on the Past 12 Seasons of EPL:

Using data from the last 12 seasons of the English Premier League , we applied both the Spearman rank correlation and the Normalized Kendall Tau distance to determine how much of the league standings can be predicted by match week 11. Here are the key findings:

1. Spearman's Rank Correlation:

Spearman’s correlation analysis showed that by match week 11, 80% of the variance in league standings can already be explained. In simpler terms, the ranking positions of teams up to this point are highly predictive of their final standings by the end of the season. This makes sense, as by this stage, teams usually settle into a rhythm, and the results tend to follow a predictable pattern.

2. Normalized Kendall Tau Distance:

A similar analysis using the Normalized Kendall Tau distance also revealed that 80% of relative league positions are determined by week 8. This means that the relative difference in positions between teams tends to stabilize early in the season, with few surprises after this point.

3. 2024-2025 Season – A Unique Case:

However, this season is different. By match week 11, the standings are unusually open, with 9 teams still within 2 wins of breaking into the top 4. This is one of the most competitive starts to a season in the last decade. In fact, only the 2020-2021 and 2014-2015 seasons were as open at this stage.

This season, Manchester United finds itself far from the top 4. Despite their current position, the data shows that there is still a chance for the team to break into the top 4—all it would take is a couple of key wins and some favorable results from competitors.

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Conclusion:

So, what does this all mean for Manchester United? While historical data suggests that 80% of the standings are often set by match week 11, this season can prove to be more unpredictable. The 2024-2025 season is one of the most open in recent years, and with a new manager coming in, there is certainly hope for a turnaround. If Manchester United can make the most of the next few match weeks and capitalize on the tight race for top 4, they might still have a fighting chance to secure a Champions League spot.

For MUFC fans, this season is far from over—and the hope is that with a fresh approach, a strong squad, and a bit of luck, Manchester United could indeed make a dramatic push towards the top. Keep the faith, Red Devils!

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