Battery Cathode Materials Market Analysis: Week Ending 26 November 2024.

Contents:

Part A

1. Weekly Price Movements

2. Pricing table, including weekly and monthly price movements

3. Monthly price movements

4. Market Insights

Part B

"The Unassailable Dominance: China's EV Supremacy" by Dev-Ad MagZ

as prompted by Michael Dunne's recent article in FT Intelligence, "Northvolt collapse lays bare Chinese EV supremacy."

A Devil's Advocate is someone who takes a contrary position or expresses skepticism towards popular beliefs to stimulate critical thinking and deeper analysis. This approach originated in the Roman Catholic Church, where an official would argue against candidates for canonization to expose potential flaws in their sainthood cases.

Part A

Weekly Price Movements:

NMC Materials

• NMC811 and NMC523 cathode materials continued their decline, falling 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, though at a slower rate than previous weeks.
• Nickel sulfate dropped significantly by 1.8%, while manganese sulfate (-0.4%) and cobalt sulfate (-0.5%) showed modest declines.
• Lithium hydroxide showed slight recovery with a 0.2% increase, suggesting potential stabilization in lithium markets.
• Spodumene concentrate maintained its upward trend, rising 1.5%, driven by ongoing supply constraints.

LFP Materials

• LFP cathode material decreased slightly by 0.2%, reversing last week's gains.
• Lithium carbonate declined marginally by 0.1%, suggesting market equilibrium.
• Ferro-phosphate continued its downward trend with a 0.3% decrease.

LMO and LCO Materials

• LMO cathode material showed strong performance with a 2.7% increase, the largest weekly gain.
• EMD grades and manganese tetraoxide both declined by 0.1%.
• LCO cathode material fell by 1.3%, with cobalt tetraoxide dropping 1.7%.

Monthly Price Movements

Longer-term Trends

• NMC materials show sustained pressure: NMC811 (-3.6%) and NMC523 (-2.6%).
• Nickel sulfate experienced the sharpest monthly decline (-7.9%).
• Spodumene concentrate shows remarkable strength (+9.0%), the highest monthly gain.
• LFP materials demonstrate resilience with positive monthly performance: cathode material (+3.6%) and lithium carbonate (+5.5%).
• LCO materials continue to struggle, with cathode material down 6.4%.

Market Insights

Supply Chain Dynamics

• The continued rise in spodumene prices reflects ongoing supply constraints and production discipline from major producers.
• Nickel's sharp decline indicates persistent oversupply issues and reduced demand from battery manufacturers.

Technology Shifts

• The strong performance of LMO cathode material (+2.7% weekly, +4.2% monthly) suggests increasing interest in manganese-rich chemistries, potentially driven by LMFP development.
• LFP's monthly gains despite weekly softness indicate sustained long-term demand for this chemistry.

Key Price Movers

• Largest Weekly Increase: LMO cathode material (+2.7%)
• Largest Weekly Decrease: Nickel sulfate (-1.8%)

Critical Analysis

The market shows clear signs of structural change:

1. The divergence between weekly and monthly trends in LFP materials suggests long-term adoption despite short-term volatility.
2. Strong performance in manganese-based materials indicates growing interest in next-generation battery technologies.
3. Continued weakness in nickel and cobalt prices reflects the industry's shift away from high-nickel chemistries.

Stakeholders should monitor these trends closely as they signal significant changes in battery material demand patterns and technology adoption.

Part B

"The Unassailable Dominance: China's EV Supremacy"

by Dev-Ad MagZ

as prompted by Michael Dunne's recent article in FT Intelligence, "Northvolt collapse lays bare Chinese EV supremacy."

Dear Valued Readers,

I hope this newsletter finds you well. Today, I want to draw your attention to a pressing matter that's reshaping the global electric vehicle (EV) landscape.

You may have read Michael Dunne's recent article in FT Intelligence, "Northvolt collapse lays bare Chinese EV supremacy."

• Dunne's piece paints a stark picture of China's dominance in the EV sector and the struggles Western companies face. The bankruptcy of Northvolt, once Europe's most promising battery start-up, serves as a wake-up call for the entire industry.

In light of these developments, I've commissioned a series of articles that take a Devil's Advocate perspective on China's EV supremacy.

This approach isn't about conceding defeat; rather, it's about preparing for the worst-case scenario and mitigating risks. As Northvolt's situation has shown, optimism without careful consideration of market realities can lead to unexpected setbacks.

• Over the next eight weeks, we'll explore various aspects of China's EV dominance and the challenges facing Western companies. Our goal is to provide a clear-eyed assessment of the situation, helping you make informed decisions in this rapidly evolving industry.

Here's what you can expect in our upcoming series, "The Unassailable Dominance: China's EV Supremacy":

1. The Undeniable Dominance - China's EV Market Supremacy
2. Manufacturing Might - How China Outpaces the West
3. Supply Chain Stranglehold - The West's Dependency Dilemma
4. Innovation Imbalance - China's Technological Leap
5. Infrastructure and Policy - China's Integrated Approach
6. Western Woes - Setbacks and Struggles in EV Development
7. The Collaboration Conundrum - Risks and Opportunities
8. Charting a New Course - Lessons from Successful East-West Partnerships

• I encourage you to approach this series with an open mind. Challenge your assumptions, question the status quo, and consider how these insights might reshape your strategies in the EV and battery materials sector.

Look for the first installment,

"The Undeniable Dominance - China's EV Market Supremacy,"

in next week's newsletter.

• Thank you for your continued readership.
• I look forward to engaging in this critical discussion with you over the coming weeks.

Cheers for now,

Magnus.

https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/magnus-bekker/