“Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” — John F. Kennedy
Contents:
1. Weekly Price Movements
2. Pricing table, including weekly and monthly price movements
3. Monthly price movements
Weekly Price Movements:
NMC Materials
- NMC811 and NMC523: Both NMC811 and NMC523 cathode materials experienced significant declines this week, down by 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. These declines are driven by reductions in key precursors, including nickel sulfate, which fell by 2.3%, and cobalt sulfate, which dropped by 2.6%. The continued oversupply of cobalt and nickel in the market, coupled with reduced demand from electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers shifting to lower-cost battery chemistries like LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate), is contributing to these price drops.
- Lithium Hydroxide: Decreased by 1.6% week-on-week, reflecting weak demand for high-nickel chemistries as many battery producers favor LFP for its cost-effectiveness.
- Spodumene Concentrate: The standout performer this week, up by 3.8%, driven by supply constraints following production cuts at Pilbara Minerals' Ngungaju plant. This has tightened spodumene availability, causing a short-term price spike.
LFP Materials
- LFP Cathode Material: Marginally decreased by 0.2%, reflecting relative stability in the LFP segment despite broader market pressures.
- Lithium Carbonate: Increased by 0.7%, supported by tightening supply as production cuts from key lithium producers start to affect availability.
- Ferro-Phosphate: Decreased by 1.5%, indicating that precursor costs for LFP production are continuing to fall, keeping overall LFP prices stable.
LMO and LCO Materials
- LMO Cathode Material: Remained unchanged week-on-week, indicating stabilization after previous significant declines.
- LCO Cathode Material: Dropped sharply by 2.1%, driven by continued weakness in cobalt demand and a further decline in cobalt tetraoxide prices (-1.5%).
Monthly Price Movements
NMC Materials
- NMC811 and NMC523: The monthly picture shows continued pressure on NMC materials, with NMC811 down 5.1% and NMC523 down 5.9%. This reflects sustained weakness in demand for high-nickel batteries as the industry increasingly favors lower-cost alternatives like LFP and LMFP (Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate).
- Nickel Sulfate: Down by 4.9% month-on-month, reflecting reduced demand from the battery sector as more manufacturers adopt LFP technology.
- Cobalt Sulfate: The largest monthly drop among NMC precursors, down by 6.7%, driven by oversupply and reduced demand from EV manufacturers.
LFP Materials
- LFP Cathode Material: A modest monthly decline of 0.8% suggests that LFP remains relatively stable compared to other cathode materials, benefiting from its cost-effectiveness and growing adoption in energy storage systems (ESS) and lower-cost EVs.
- Lithium Carbonate: Down by 2.1% month-on-month, reflecting broader lithium market corrections after strong gains earlier this year.
- Ferro-Phosphate: Fell by 2.2%, aligning with broader declines in precursor material prices.
LMO and LCO Materials
- LMO Cathode Material: The most significant monthly decline across all materials, down by 10.2%. This reflects a structural shift away from LMO batteries as newer technologies like LMFP gain traction.
- LCO Cathode Material: Down by 5.8% over the month, driven largely by falling cobalt prices as manufacturers continue to shift away from cobalt-heavy chemistries.
Market Insights
Several key developments are influencing these price movements:
- Supply-Demand Dynamics for Key Precursors:The lithium-ion battery supply chain continues to face oversupply issues for critical materials like nickel and cobalt, which is driving down prices for NMC cathode materials.Cobalt sulfate's sharp monthly decline (-6.7%) reflects weak demand as manufacturers increasingly move toward cobalt-free or low-cobalt chemistries like LMFP.
- Spodumene Supply Constraints:Spodumene concentrate prices surged (+3.8%) due to production cutbacks at Pilbara Minerals' Ngungaju plant, tightening supply in the lithium market.
- Technological Shifts Toward LMFP Batteries:The rise of LMFP technology is reshaping the demand landscape for manganese sulfate and other materials used in high-manganese batteries. While manganese sulfate saw a modest monthly decline (-2.4%), its long-term outlook remains positive as LMFP batteries gain traction due to their cost-effectiveness and improved performance compared to traditional LFP batteries.
- Global EV Battery Market Volatility:The global EV battery market remains volatile due to fluctuating raw material prices and shifting preferences toward lower-cost battery technologies like LFP.
Comparative Analysis
The comparison between weekly and monthly price movements reveals several important insights:
- Short-Term Volatility vs Long-Term Decline:While some materials like spodumene concentrate showed short-term gains this week (+3.8%), their monthly trends remain negative (-1.8%). This suggests that while supply constraints may cause temporary price increases, broader market dynamics continue to exert downward pressure on prices.
- Stabilization in LMO Prices?LMO cathode material's unchanged weekly price contrasts sharply with its significant monthly drop (-10.2%). This indicates that while short-term stabilization may be occurring, long-term demand for LMO is waning as newer technologies like LMFP gain market share.
- NMC's Continued Struggles:NMC materials continue to face both weekly (-1.8%) and monthly (-5%) declines, reflecting persistent oversupply issues for nickel and cobalt amid shifting preferences toward lower-cost alternatives like LFP.
Key Price Movers
The two biggest price movers this week were:
- Upward: Spodumene concentrate (+3.8%)
- Downward: Cobalt sulfate (-2.6%)
These movements highlight ongoing supply constraints for spodumene due to production cutbacks, while cobalt continues to face weak demand amid technological shifts away from cobalt-intensive battery chemistries.
Conclusion
The battery cathode materials market remains under pressure from oversupply of key precursors like nickel and cobalt, while technological advancements such as LMFP are reshaping demand dynamics for traditional cathode materials like NMC and LMO.
As manufacturers increasingly adopt cost-effective alternatives like LFP and LMFP batteries, we expect continued volatility in the pricing of traditional materials such as nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate.
Stakeholders should closely monitor developments in battery technology and global supply chains, as these factors will continue to drive price fluctuations in the coming months.
If LMFP battery technology, and other next generation High-Manganese content, Lithium- & Sodium battery technologies, are something you need to start paying attention to,
