Battery Cathode Materials Market Analysis: Week Ending November 5, 2024

“when the going gets tough, the tough get going”

Contents:

1. Weekly Price Movements

2. Pricing table, including weekly and monthly price movements

3. Monthly price movements

4. Market Insights

Weekly Price Movements

NMC Materials

• NMC811 and NMC523 showed slight increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, marking a reversal from previous weeks' declines.
• Nickel sulfate rose 0.2%, while cobalt sulfate declined 0.4%, indicating mixed precursor cost dynamics.
• Spodumene concentrate showed the strongest weekly gain at 1.2%, suggesting potential upstream price pressure.

LFP Materials

• LFP cathode material increased by 1.2%, continuing last week's positive trend.
• Lithium carbonate rose 1.6%, the largest weekly gain across all materials.
• Ferro-phosphate showed a modest 0.3% increase, supporting the overall LFP price movement.

LMO and LCO Materials

• LMO cathode material increased by 1.9%, showing significant recovery.
• EMD grades showed mixed performance: LMO-grade up 0.2%, alkaline-grade down 0.1%.
• LCO cathode material declined by 1.68%, the largest weekly drop.

Monthly Price Movements

Long-term Trends

• NMC materials continue their downward trajectory: NMC811 (-4.0%) and NMC523 (-4.8%).
• LFP materials show moderate monthly declines: cathode material (-0.5%) and lithium carbonate (-1.7%).
• LMO materials experienced significant monthly drops: cathode material (-9.6%) and EMD-LMO grade (-3.0%).

Market Insights and Analysis

Supply Chain Dynamics

The market is showing signs of stabilization after several weeks of decline, particularly in the NMC segment. The modest weekly gains in most materials suggest a potential pricing floor, though monthly trends remain negative

Technology and Innovation Impact

Recent developments in sodium-ion batteries are creating competitive pressure on lithium-based technologies. With sodium-ion production capacity expected to reach 335.4 GWh by 2030, this could influence future pricing strategies for traditional lithium-ion materials

Regional Market Implications

Manufacturing costs outside Asia remain approximately 20% higher, creating ongoing challenges for Western producers. This cost differential continues to influence global market dynamics and investment decisions

Strategic Market Shifts

• The LFP segment shows resilience with positive weekly movements, despite monthly declines, indicating potential market rebalancing.
• The contrasting performance between weekly and monthly trends suggests a possible inflection point in the market cycle.
• The significant monthly decline in LMO materials (-9.6%) indicates possible structural changes in demand patterns

Forward-Looking Analysis

The market appears to be entering a new phase characterized by:

1. Price Stabilization: The positive weekly movements across multiple materials suggest potential market bottom formation.
2. Technology Competition: The emergence of sodium-ion and LMFP technologies is creating new competitive dynamics that could influence pricing strategies
3. Supply Chain Reorganization: Ongoing efforts to establish production bases outside Asia continue to face challenges from price competition

The biggest price movers this week were:

• Upward: Lithium carbonate (+1.6%)
• Downward: LCO cathode material (-1.68%)

These movements suggest a market in transition, with traditional materials facing pressure from emerging technologies and evolving demand patterns.

Cheers for now,

Magnus.

https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/magnus-bekker/