A Bank Robbery, Lemon Juice And Comptence

This is a real-life money heist story with a twist that resulted in fantastic research and theory.

In January of 1995, McArthur Wheeler and Clifton Earl Johnson set their sights on robbing not just one, but two banks in Pittsburg, USA

But hold on, these were no common robbers covered in masks and gloves. They were so confident of their invincibility that they didn’t even try to hide themselves. Why would they do that? Weren’t they afraid of getting caught?

Nopes. They thought that no one could catch them, because… they believed they were invisible. That too because of lemon juice. Yes. you read that right.

Wheeler firmly believed that by applying lemon juice to their faces, they would become invisible. Knowing that lemon juice reveals hidden messages when heated, he thought it would also obscure his face from surveillance. He checked it with a Polaroid selfie, which as luck would have it, came out blank. So, they went about robbing banks without bothering to hiding themselves. Not stopping with that, they even smiled at the cameras as they left each bank after committing the crimes.

Sadly for them, the security cameras caught clear pictures and videos of them which were broadcast in the local news. When apprehended, Wheeler stared at their pictures in disbelief, and said, "But I wore the lemon juice. I wore the lemon juice!"

This bewildering incident caught the attention of David Dunning, an American social psychologist and a Professor of Psychology. He wrote in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette,

"If Wheeler was too stupid to be a bank robber, perhaps he was also too stupid to know that he was too stupid to be a bank robber — that is, his stupidity protected him from an awareness of his own stupidity." He went on to co-author a study along with his graduate student Justin Kruger.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

As David Dunning and Justin Kruger explored the relationship between competence and self-awareness and published these findings in a 1992 paper, “Unskilled and Unaware of it: How Difficulties in recognizing one’s incompetence led to inflated self-assessments”.

They called it the Dunning-Kruger Effect. It states a cognitive bias that the more incompetent we are, the lesser we are aware of our incompetence. The flip side is also true, the more competent ones second guess themselves and live in more self-doubt than those who know less.

Even today, it is quite easy to fall into the Dunning-Kruger trap. WhatsApp & other easy pieces of ‘wisdom’ is the biggest deceiver here. Countless people, having read a forwarded message about finance, health and nutrition, climate change, and geopolitics, consider themselves experts without any further research and confidently advise people in doubt.

Such is the persuasive communication and false consensus spread via social media platforms that one can’t help but feel like they know a lot and be sure of it.

Points to Ponder

Developing a good grasp of the the Dunning-Kruger effect has multiple benefits. Here are some quick ideas that are pertinent.

1. Never stop learning: One way to overcome the Dunning-Kruger effect is to learn more and more about any new field. Don’t just stop at face value, confusing familiarity for confidence. So, keep exploring and learning.
2. Keep experimenting: Talk to people who know more on the subject, and quietly check your own knowledge. Examine the bubbles you are in. You won’t be an expert in one go, so keep checking your knowledge at different levels. That is the best way to get a reality check and avoid this bias.

When you feel too confident, check, and when in doubt, smile. Remember the words of Robert Hughes, "The greater the artist, the greater the doubt. Perfect confidence is granted to the less talented as a consolation prize.”

What do you think?

#Change #Competence #Learning #growth #awareness #selfawareness #confidence