Bangladesh's Political Crisis: Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster, Yunus’ Puppet Government, and the Growing Risk of Fragmentation

The political crisis that has engulfed Bangladesh in 2024 marks a critical and alarming chapter in the nation’s history. The dramatic ousting of long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has not only thrown the country into political turmoil but has also strained its traditional relations with its most significant neighbour, India. The series of events leading to this crisis raises profound questions about the future of Bangladesh, the legitimacy of the interim government under Muhammad Yunus, the plight of the country's religious minorities, and the very fabric of its democracy.

Who Was Responsible for the Political Crisis?

The responsibility for Bangladesh's political crisis cannot be attributed to a single factor; rather, it is the culmination of years of political instability, widespread dissatisfaction, and external influence. The immediate catalyst for the crisis was a student-led movement protesting a controversial quota system for government jobs, which snowballed into a nationwide demand for Hasina's resignation. Despite the opposition forces, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, capitalizing on this unrest, the crisis has deeper roots in Hasina's increasingly authoritarian rule, the militarization of the state, and political exclusion.

Internal factors such as mounting public anger, the stifling of democratic freedoms, and a shrinking political space have exacerbated the situation. The opposition groups, while seeking to unseat Hasina’s regime, have also been vying for power in a country where political polarisation has deepened. This opened the door for external forces to exert influence, notably the West, which has long had interests in Bangladesh’s political and economic landscape. The crisis, thus, cannot be understood in isolation from broader geopolitical forces at play.

The Puppet Government: Yunus and the Deep State

Following the ouster of Hasina, the country finds itself under the control of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, a man with deep ties to international financial elites and Western powers. Yunus, seen by many as an agent of the American "deep state," is now positioned as a puppet leader tasked with reshaping Bangladesh’s political future. However, Yunus' rise to power raises significant concerns about his ability to act in the best interests of Bangladesh.

Yunus’s leadership is viewed by many as an attempt to install a government that prioritises foreign interests over the welfare of the Bangladeshi people. Under his leadership, the interim government has failed to live up to its core responsibility: overseeing free and fair elections. Instead, there has been a dangerous delay in conducting elections, leaving the country in a state of political limbo. Yunus, despite his international stature, seems oblivious to the reality on the ground. His call for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India—an unrealistic demand that reflects his ignorance of Bangladesh’s geopolitical history—is a glaring example of how detached he is from the ground realities of the nation he now leads.

The Growing Crisis of Religious Persecution

One of the most disturbing aspects of the current political crisis in Bangladesh is the systematic targeting of religious minorities, particularly the Hindu community. Under the watch of the interim government, violence against Hindus has surged. Reports of rapes, killings, and the destruction of Hindu temples have surfaced, creating an atmosphere of fear and persecution. These atrocities have gone largely unchecked, with the interim government offering little to no protection to the affected communities.

The recent arrest of the head of the International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON), a prominent Hindu religious organization, under dubious sedition charges, further highlights the worsening state of religious freedom in the country. The violence against minorities in Bangladesh undermines the very principles on which the nation was founded. Bangladesh was created as a secular state, but the growing hostility towards Hindus threatens to erase the nation's pluralistic ideals.

The international community, particularly India, has a vital role to play in addressing these abuses. India's government, which has historically supported Bangladesh’s liberation and its path toward democracy, must now take a stronger stance in ensuring the protection of minorities and advocating for the restoration of Bangladesh's secular, democratic foundations.

Economic Collapse and the Risk of Civil War

The economic situation in Bangladesh is deteriorating rapidly. Once hailed as a rising economic power in South Asia, the country’s economy is now teetering on the brink of collapse. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have both slashed their growth forecasts, with warnings that many rural households are at risk of falling back into poverty. The ongoing political instability, combined with a lack of governance and widespread corruption, has left the economy in shambles.

With the country on the verge of economic collapse, the possibility of civil war looms large. As the political factions intensify their struggle for power, Bangladesh faces the very real threat of widespread unrest. The ongoing repression of political dissent and the rising tide of extremism could lead to armed conflict, further destabilizing the region. The absence of a legitimate, elected government means that there is no clear leadership to guide the nation through this crisis.

The potential for civil war is compounded by the deepening economic crisis, which has left millions of people struggling to make ends meet. The instability has already led to violent clashes between protestors and security forces, resulting in the deaths of more than 1,500 people. As the interim government struggles to hold power, the country risks descending into chaos, with the possibility of armed factions vying for control.

The Fragmentation of Bangladesh

Given the current trajectory, the fragmentation of Bangladesh is becoming an increasingly likely scenario. The divisions between different political factions, ethnic groups, and religious communities are widening, and the legitimacy of the interim government is increasingly in question. The rise of separatist sentiments, particularly among regions with significant minority populations, could lead to the disintegration of the country.

Bangladesh’s traditional unity, forged through the struggles of its founding father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the sacrifices made during the 1971 Liberation War, is now at risk. The growing political polarisation and increasing regional and religious tensions signal that the nation could be on the verge of disintegration. The longer the political crisis continues, the more likely it is that Bangladesh will fracture into competing factions, each vying for power.

India’s Role and the Future of Bangladesh

India’s role in this crisis cannot be overstated. As Bangladesh’s closest neighbour and historical ally, India has a vested interest in the stability and future of the country. India has long supported Bangladesh's sovereignty and democratic values, and it must now ensure that Bangladesh returns to a democratic path. The protection of minorities, the restoration of democratic processes, and the guarantee of free and fair elections must be the priority.

However, the situation is complex. India cannot afford to simply stand by as Bangladesh descends further into chaos. The growing persecution of Hindus, the continued delay in elections, and the threat of civil war demand that India take a more proactive role in the crisis. India must also navigate the delicate balance of maintaining good relations with whichever government emerges from this crisis while ensuring that Bangladesh remains a stable, peaceful neighbour.

Conclusion: A Nation on the Brink

Bangladesh is at a critical crossroads. The ouster of Sheikh Hasina and the rise of Yunus's interim government have led the country into a period of unprecedented political, social, and economic instability. The targeting of religious minorities, the failure to conduct elections, the collapse of the economy, and the threat of civil war have plunged the nation into crisis. As Bangladesh faces the prospect of fragmentation, the role of India, the international community, and the Bangladeshi people in restoring stability and democracy will determine the future of this once-promising nation.

The people of Bangladesh deserve the opportunity to freely elect their government and chart their own path. If they are denied that right, the nation risks falling into further chaos, with far-reaching consequences for the region and the world. It is time for Bangladesh to return to its roots of democracy, secularism, and justice—before it is too late.