Bangladesh: The Long Road Ahead
After fifteen years in power, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country following a month of protests in which over 300 people were killed. The army should prevent reprisal killings, and the soon-to-be-formed interim government should investigate abuses and begin rebuilding democracy.
// On Our Radar
Russia-Ukraine
Ukrainian forces staged a surprise incursion into western Russia Tuesday, near the city of Kursk, leading to by far the heaviest fighting on Russian soil since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Moscow said it was pushing the Ukrainians back across the frontier, but at week’s end it appeared that fighting in the Kursk region was still under way. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says Ukraine’s objectives are still unclear. For the time being, however, Kyiv has managed to turn the tables on Moscow, exploiting weak border defences and an intelligence failure to strike inside Russia.
Sudan
联合国儿童基金会 and the World Food Programme confirmed this week that famine has struck Zamzam, a camp sheltering some 500,000 displaced people outside El Fasher in North Darfur, site of some of the heaviest combat between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The fighting makes it nearly impossible for humanitarian agencies to reach the camp, and both warring parties have been obstructing delivery of vital supplies. The worst situation is in Zamzam, but the World Food Programme warned Thursday that thirteen other areas, including the capital Khartoum, are also at risk of catastrophic hunger. Ceasefire talks in Switzerland could finally convene later this month, but expectations remain low, says Crisis Group expert Alan Boswell. World leaders should demand that both sides allow in food aid now – and end the war.
Venezuela
Authorities this week widened a crackdown on citizens protesting the result of the 28 July presidential election, which the government says incumbent Nicolás Maduro won by a margin of almost 10 per cent. Maduro’s government has yet to release official tallies proving its claim; by contrast, the opposition and foreign media outlets have presented evidence showing that the main challenger Edmundo González was the victor, as exit polls had indicated. At least 24 demonstrators have been killed in clashes with police, who have also detained over 1,100 people. Opposition figures and independent journalists are among the victims of a massive campaign of “knock, knock” arrests across the country. Maduro has vowed to build new jails to house “another thousand” people. The standoff between the government and dissenters looks set to continue, says Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson Gunson, while outside parties led by Brazil seek a negotiated solution.
// CrisisWatch
August Alerts and July Trends?
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights four conflict risks and four resolution opportunities in August. It also identified deteriorations in six?countries and conflict areas and an?improvement in one location in July.
// Publications
Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East
The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.
Read the full conflict alert here. Also available in Arabic.
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Venezuela: What Next after its Election Uproar?
Venezuelan election authorities proclaimed incumbent Nicolás Maduro victor in the 28 July presidential poll despite evidence brandished by the opposition showing its candidate won by a landslide. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson explains what the ensuing outcry means for Venezuela’s protracted crisis.
Also available in Spanish.
Man on a Wire: A Way Forward for Iran’s New President
The Islamic Republic’s ninth president assumes office with an unenviable inheritance of domestic discontent, regional turmoil and poor relations with the West. He should work to bridge the state-society gap, while outside powers should test his administration’s willingness to shift from an escalatory posture.
// New Op-Ed
The U.S. Can Do More to Prevent an Israel-Iran War
In this new Foreign Policy op-ed, our CEO and President Comfort Ero writes about how genuine pressure on Israel and Hamas to enact a Gaza cease-fire could dial down tensions across the region, and what more the U.S. can do to achieve this outcome.
// Video
A Three Border Problem: Holding Back the Amazon’s Criminal Frontiers
In this video, Bram Ebus us, Crisis Group's Andes Region expert, delves into the rise of organised crime in the vast jungle region where the borders of Brazil, Colombia, and Peru converge.?
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