Balancing Hope with Urgency

"[...]history shows that things can be different. They don't have to be this way. We can change them." - Rutger Bregman, historian and author

Based on recent headlines, you could be forgiven for feeling confused about where we stand in the energy transition, or even for feeling completely hopeless. The latest report from the IPCC released just yesterday has spawned a thousand headlines and none are encouraging. The Commission's press release headline is about as optimistic as it gets: "Urgent climate action can secure a liveable future for all." I mean... at least it has an active verb in it? Meanwhile, we have gems such as Warnings About Humanity's Future Don't Get More Dire Than This , World is on brink of catastrophic warming, U.N. climate change report says , Italy vulnerable as climate 'timebomb' ticks - IPCC report , and Samoa PM urges world to save Pacific people from climate crisis obliteration . Give it another day and there will be a thousand more.

The Facts on The Ground

Urgency is, of course, warranted. Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. The implications of warming beyond 2 degrees Celsius, which today appears to be increasingly likely, are grave. This interactive graphic from Carbon Brief shows what various levels of warming could mean for life on this planet. The scale of what must be achieved is daunting - due to the lagging effects of carbon emissions, we must immediately flatten the emissions curve and cut it in half by 2030 in order to achieve the most optimistic 1.5 degree warming scenario.

Reasons for Optimism

Amid this slow motion calamity, there are in fact bright spots that deserve to retain their place in the spotlight. Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE) 's annual Sustainable Energy in America Factbook recently highlighted jaw-dropping growth in investment flowing to the energy transition. It's a meaty report with a lot of great data from BloombergNEF . In 2022 alone, the US saw a record $141 billion investment in energy transition, and global investment topped $1 trillion, a staggering 44% year on year increase. That kind of increase is unprecedented, and it's really something to be proud of. Canary Media Inc. does a great job of highlighting the good news in this report (with the obligatory bad news), and if you prefer your information in audio format, thi Volts podcast unpacks some of the findings of the report with Lisa Jacobson herself.

How We Tell The Story Matters

You might wonder why I'm dwelling so much on a report that gives us the historical snapshot, when this other report projecting our future pathways looks so bleak. It's because I've been thinking a lot about this other podcast I listened to recently that examines the idea of humanity's true nature. This idea of the "thin veneer of civilization" that underpins a lot of modern discourse may not accurately represent how people actually respond in the face of disaster. Rebecca Solnit shares stories of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and how mutual aid was the reality on the ground, while media coverage verged on hysteria over looting and other alleged misdeeds - disaster porn later shown to be often unsubstantiated.

Historian and author Rutger Bregman closes the episode with these thoughts, and they have been ringing in my head all day while considering these two competing narratives:

Every milestone of human civilization - the end of slavery, democracy, equal rights for men and women. These were all utopian fantasies once, until they happened.

[...]history shows that things can be different. They don't have to be this way. We can change them.

This is what I see when I look at this report showing how far we've come. I see history showing us that things can be different. The unprecedented is simply a precedent not yet set.

For a little extra credit, and something beautiful to help soothe the existential terror of the IPCC report, may I recommend my favorite disaster story of all time? Station Eleven by Emily John Mandel is the most hopeful story you'll ever read about humanity in the aftermath of devastation. The HBO miniseries adaptation is a credit to the novel and a must for any lover of Shakespeare.

Humanity's better nature can and often does prevail, especially when we seek community and help each other make space for art, beauty, and shared connections. These are the messages that will unite us to drive change.