Balance realism with optimism...

When I read the published article of Gates foundation yesterday … “Relentless pursuit of an equitable world - the optimist” - the word ‘optimist’ (though the meaning was pointing towards realism) stood out for me from another read that resonated with me and to include ‘realism’ as well… 'The Stockdale Paradox - why confronting reality is vital to success' by MIKE COLAGROSSI.

Though Mike wrote this piece in 2018, it is so relevant in today’s scenario. The Stockdale Paradox reminds me to balance realism with optimism.

We can continue to say ‘All is well’ (like AmirKhan’s mantra from 3 Idiots) or like the ‘godman’ (you know whom I am referring to) said with his powers, he will eliminate the virus from the face of the earth by 30Apr (well today is 01 May) or we can parallelly prepare for the worst to make the best. 

The current pandemic situation - is there an opportunity to balance optimism with realism? This takes us to ‘the Stockdale paradox’s perspective. This situation is so different for each one of us, something that we have never experienced. The only hope is to get back to normal, but how prepared are we as individuals, businesses to know, or to design what that new normal could be for each of us or our businesses, investors, employees, customers, partners, etc. 

Eventually, everything here onwards will boil down to ‘experience’ - in a very very different way.  

UAE partially has relaxed its lockdown rules for the Ramadan period - one of the fascinating experiences for me was how the UAE govt handled this festive experience for its people. To allow people to venture out (with only 30% occupancy in malls, each store allows a limited number of people at a time, a private car can travel with no more than 3 people, Kids below 12 and seniors citizens are not allowed to venture out). This is for sure a new way, for now, we will probably start to experience such changes more and more to make it to the norm. 

I don’t quite remember when my international travel changed to become what it is now. It used to be very simple but over the years we have adapted to the new norms (so many checks and restrictions at the airport) - this stemmed out of fear and then the new norm was adopted to make sure we move on with life. 

So, why Stockdale Paradox - In the simplest explanation of this paradox, it's the idea of hoping for the best, but acknowledging and preparing for the worst.

Excerpts from Mike Colagrossi’s piece - 

In paradox we often find some of the greatest bits of wisdom. The difficulty in understanding a paradox comes from the fact that when it's heard as a maxim in some kind of verbal form, it is contradictory and not intuitively grasped. This said, paradoxes are best understood through experience.

The Stockdale Paradox is one such concept that, at first glance, takes some linguistic mental jumping jacks to fully grasp. This paradox was first put forward in Jim Collin's book Good to Great, a seminal corporate self-help and leadership book. 

Author Jim Collins found a perfect example of this paradoxical concept in James Stockdale, former vice-presidential candidate, who, during the Vietnam War, was held captive as a prisoner of war for over seven years. He was one of the highest-ranking naval officers at the time. 

During this horrific period, Stockdale was repeatedly tortured and had no reason to believe he'd make it out alive. Held in the clutches of the grim reality of his hell world, he found a way to stay alive by embracing both the harshness of his situation with a balance of healthy optimism.

Stockdale explained this idea as the following: "You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."

In the simplest explanation of this paradox, it's the idea of hoping for the best, but acknowledging and preparing for the worst.

The ability to acknowledge your situation and balance optimism with realism comes from an understanding of the Stockdale Paradox. This contradictory way of thinking was the strength that led James through those trying years. Such paradoxical thinking, whether you consciously know it or not has been one of the defining philosophies for great leaders making it through hardship and reaching their goals. 

Whether it's weathering through torturous imprisonment in a POW camp or going through your own trials and tribulations, the Stockdale Paradox has merit as a way of thinking and acting for any trying times in a person's life. 

The inherent contradictory dichotomy in the paradox holds a great lesson for how to achieve success and overcome difficult obstacles. It also flies right in the face of unbridled optimists and those positivity peddlers whose advice pervades nearly every self-help book or guru spiel out there. 

In a discussion with Collins for his book, Stockdale speaks about how the optimists fared in camp. The dialogue goes: 

"Who didn't make it out?"

"Oh, that's easy," he said. "The optimists."

"The optimists? I don't understand," I said, now completely confused, given what he'd said a hundred meters earlier. "The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, 'We're going to be out by Christmas.' And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they'd say,'We're going to be out by Easter.' And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart."

CONCLUSION:

INDIVIDUALS: {fear = Safety / Health}

Get comfortable and start defining your own new norm (build my own operating principles). Making lifestyle changes, educating everyone in the family, working as a team.

BUSINESSES: {fear = not surviving for reasons that are beyond control, unwillingness to acknowledge} 

Businesses have to innovate. Though digital is the way forward, everything cannot be digital. People still want human experience, coexisting of Brick & Mortar and Digital will make its way in a very very different way. Brick & Mortar will adapt to more self-service options. Customer experience will become the topmost priority in a very different way - customer safety and heath will take over.

Education industry especially, going digital schooling is not innovation. They need to come up with newer ways to get the co-existing model working. Like Elon Musk says, "I think college is basically for fun and to prove you can do chores, but they are not for learning. You can learn anything you want for free".

EMPLOYEES: {fear = survival, don't know what to expect, blindsided}

Employed individuals need to be aware of and prepared for the worse. Being well informed about your company, making informed choices, build perspectives, alternative skills /paths, and taking strong decisions is crucial.

I am sure there are more categories (kids, seniors, small businesses etc) to discuss. I will keep this for open discussion for people to contribute.