Bad Foresight
“In action be primitive; in foresight, a strategist.” Ed Koch ?????
In severe and long-lasting economic crisis decision makers in policy, public sector and enterprises suffer from severe cognitive biases. This results mediocre outcomes as everyone is keen on delivering accepted and positive impact to the public and general audience. Societies suffer from foresight process relaying on promoting predetermined and controlled policy views rather than systematically analysing underlaying systemic causalities, path decencies, obstacles, and events creating plausible futures. This controlled policy foresight practice relaying on speed in decision making and true beliefs is only increasing effects of syndrome and biases.
Several studies found that contextual expert performed foresight with strong vision, intuition and imagination capabilities can deliver twice bigger profitability in average and in the high performing industries up to five times higher growth. The future prepared public sector organizations, industry associations and firms have better learning capabilities from past and vast better anticipation competencies (forecast and predict) broader relevant probable future, imagine and experiment relevant possibilities opportunities, process to analyse and plan and access to more up-to-date knowledge. In many ways the future prepared organizations and firms have very broad contextual systems knowledge from real business and industry giving them significant competitive advantage over inexperienced, mediocre and regressed process.
The highly dynamic and competitive globalisations era calls for evolutionary expert perspectives in foresight process. The systemic and causal path dependencies play bigger role than ever. This can be seen as complex and chaotic but for experts analysing futures with different layers, contexts and spaces allows structure to form. The evolutionary foresight is concerned how the foresight outcomes evolve in highly dynamic process to unknow spaces in random alternative futures. The main objective of evolutionary expert foresight processing is to break free from bounding norms, biases and rules controlling evolution of future opportunities.
Mediocre foresight is lacking sustaining impact (economic, societal and environmental). The first caveat is the lack of sharp focus, appropriate methods and as mentioned carefully selected evolutionary experts generating imaginary, intuitive and high-quality insights. The second pit fall, also point out earlier, is short cutting corners with mediocre insights, hype views, headlines topics and obvious actions. And not least but as the last the mediocre foresight process is typically lacking capability to transform findings to strategic and agile actions generating sustaining and lasting value. ?
“One can have only as much preparation as he has foresight.” Jim Butcher
Your evolutionary future catalyst,
Mika Helenius
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