Bad decisions and meerkats

As the deadline looms to begin my Christmas shopping, I thought a bit of reflection might be wise. I’m reflecting why I have made so many disastrous gift decisions in years gone by. Hopefully this may inform me to do better this year.

The person in the picture introducing this article is my wife, Pamela. A woman of immense patience. She’s smiling on the outside. I’m not convinced she felt the same way inside. Why on earth would I think a meerkat would be a suitable Christmas present? Well, I felt she may appreciate something different and quirky. Nothing says different and quirky like a meerkat.

For some reason I ignored all the obvious evidence. She loves the rock band, The Eagles. She’s really keen on historical novels. I know this for certain as other members of the family have bought her gifts related to these things in the past and she has positively glowed and sang their praises.

I then started thinking: how, if I am such a bad decision maker when it comes to gifts, have I managed to make a few decent business decisions?

I began questioning whether my entire life is based upon a set of random choices I have made depending on which side of the bed I have rolled out of.

It became immediately apparent that I am a Jekyll and Hyde character.

Let me explain. I’ve always been studious for looking at data and trends when it comes to business strategy. I’ve spent many hours thinking and planning before making a move. For example, looking back this year I can now see that I have presented to over 30,000 people over the course of my career (15 years) with New Tricks. I have to pause because that’s a big figure. 30,000 people. Think about it. Of course, in itself there is little you can conclude from that figure other than I must talk a lot.

The figure only becomes interesting and useful when you start to break it down:

Number of events;

Sectors covered;

Average length of event;

Average number of delegates;

Average cost of event;

Average profit;

Delegate feedback from different topics;

Where marketing was targeted;

New/ existing customer ratios;

?Trust me I could keep going for a good couple of pages!

?Why is it important? The analysis of data produces far better indictors of future demand than my gut instinct.

All of this data is available to me. Exclusively to me. It’s what makes the organisation tick. You won’t find it on the internet.

This internal data analysis has enabled me to forge ahead with planning for many years. But then….. what happens when a ‘Great Disrupter’ appears? A ‘Great Disrupter’ is an event so unpredictable and big that it alters the entire way the market works. All of my internal data analysis becomes less valuable if history isn’t repeating itself or at least changing at a nice, steady, predictable rate. I am assuming what was valuable to customers in the past year will remain so in the coming year. Or at least most of it.

I really tried to avoid ‘the word’ during this article, but hey, I give up. You know, and I know, the one ‘Great Disrupter’ that is making business planning so challenging at the moment. Covid. And now Omicron.

However internal data isn’t all we have available. We can look outside at the big, bad world.

Never has so much information (and disinformation) been available. A quick scan of the internet quickly reveals a pile of data, from several reputable organisations, indicating that mental health issues are rising. Some of the rates of rise vary, but there is, undoubtedly, a trend in only one direction. Up.

Putting my Christmas gift strategy into action I can immediately conclude that I need to release a brand-new course in the New Year: Keeping ferrets as pets. In my gut I’m sure it can’t fail.

So there we are. In business I am driven by logic, data and trends. In my personal life it’s all gut instinct. The conclusion is simple. Logic is always better than gut instinct.

Or is it?

Have you ever interviewed and hired someone who turned out to be a disaster? You watched and listened to them give you all the answers you were expecting and hoping for. They smiled and were credible. And yet…. somewhere in the back of your mind there was a nagging doubt. You let yourself be won over by logic despite it not feeling ‘right’. You know if it doesn’t feel right, it usually isn’t.

If you are currently making decisions based on logic and data then give yourself a pat on the back. You clearly understand how to approach decision making. Maybe once you have done your analysis you could give a little headroom to the way you feel. Use your gut instinct as a ‘sanity check’.

If, however, you are very ‘feelings’ driven and you end up buying a lot of meerkats, then heed the warning. Try to ensure you understand the basis for your decision making with some evidence and logic.

If you don’t have the data you need to inform your decisions, stop. Go find it, create it. ‘Gut only’ decisions will eventually catch up with you.

I have read that many bands (including The Eagles) are planning big, 2022, comeback tours. The writing on the wall could not be clearer. I’m buying Pamela an inflatable canoe.

A massive thanks to my wonderful customers who have allowed me to continue working with their teams through virtual means during 2021. It’s been incredible.

Also huge thanks to all the people out there working hard to keep me and my family safe. I am in awe of your stamina and dedication.

Without further ado can I wish you and your loved ones a wonderful Christmas and fabulous luck in 2022.

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