Backward Thinking.

The headline reads: "Energy giant BP sees record profits of $28bn for 2022" which is interesting because perhaps the more important point is that this staggering number is almost double the profit of the previous year.

I'm confused, why are we trying to control inflation by reducing nurses pay whilst simultaneously allowing corporates to increase prices unrestrained and with no consequence?

And not just any corporate, specifically those corporates that contribute most to the climate change crisis. Whether or not you believe in the climate crisis, I'm quite confident that it's not a vote winner.

The BBC reports that Shell's recent profits are the highest in the history of the company. Whilst simultaneously the media is dominated with news about the worrying 'cost of living crisis'.

I'm not convinced that windfall taxes provide the optimum solution - it feels like running around the field long after the horse has bolted.

Energy prices have been allowed to run wild. Catastrophic government fiscal policy in 2022 amplified increasing inflation. Interest rates are a blunt instrument that is now being used to try to control spiralling prices in an untargeted way.

Increasing interest rates provides savers with a higher rate of return, whilst increasing costs for borrowers. The justification being that interest rates are an effective mechanism with which to stifle demand. I'm confused - where is the evidence of excessive demand? Who exactly is buying too much stuff - and what is it that they are buying too much of?

As an entrepreneur, I'm struggling to comprehend how, when, and why it is ever a good idea to stop demand. I've spent my entire life trying to persuade people to buy the things that I'm trying to sell, the last thing I need is someone industrially putting potential customers off.

To be clear, we are stifling demand at the same time that the UK has the unenviable accolade of having the slowest economic growth relative to all its western peers. It has been proven beyond doubt that 'trickle-down-economics' doesn't work. Increasing the wealth of the wealthy simply gets stuck in their bank accounts. Increasing the prosperity of the less wealthy instantly results in more spending - because frankly poor people have no choice.

If the less prosperous prosper, we all prosper. And so, what specifically are the initiatives that will enable more of us to prosper?

My worry is Backward Thinking. I worry that Backward Thinking seems to be significantly more dominant the Forward Thinking.

Forward Thinking is about looking at what's broken, frustrating, and causing friction - and fixing it. Government's job is to intervene when there is evidence of market failure. In the UK there is currently overwhelming evidence of market failure. In-fact, pub chat is clear: "Why is everything broken?"

Three examples that demonstrate that we can't rely on rational logic and 'market-forces' to provide the solution:

1. The electrification of mobility. The barrier to electrification isn't just the cost and availability of the EV cars - the primary barrier is the lack of EV chargers. Why can't I charge my electric vehicle? Why are there so few EV chargers? Why don't any of the EV chargers work? In 2023 a motorway service station with only two EV chargers is Backward Thinking.
2. Hospital bed blockages. We live in an ageing society. The capacity of care for the elderly has not kept pace with demand. Bulk buying care-home beds is a solution - but not one that elderly people want. Bulk buying more ambulances simply adds to the queues of ambulances already unable to offload their existing passengers. Such interventions are Backward Thinking.
3. Child safety. UK school classrooms are falling into disrepair. Children are going to school in buildings that are unsafe. We are struggling to afford the cost of the existing educational infrastructure and the future demand of classroom capacity. We can't afford to build schools the way that they used to be built. We need a new design for schools. Failure to deliver against such demonstrable need is Backward Thinking.

Backward Thinking simply dismisses such individual examples as niche; the tribulations of the affluent; first-world problems etc. "So what if your Marks and Spencer blue-berries are encased in single-use plastic". But each of these micro-problems is a powerful demonstration of macro-opportunity. France recently mandated that all car parks (over a certain size) must be covered with solar panels. Easy to dismiss such innovation as trivial, but my assertion is that the cumulative impact of such initiatives is the difference between vibrant progressive economies versus recessions and economies that are going backwards.

Forward Thinking is about investing in new technologies and innovation that multiplies exponentially the efficiency and productivity of the willing labour force. Technology that helps people to do their work more effectively, and more safely. Innovation that compels people to want to work by reducing mundanity and monotony. Technology that reduces costs substantially to enable the affordable construction of the infrastructure on which future generations will depend.

Physical and digital infrastructure. Why can't our children navigate social media safely? How many children have to die before global social media giants are appropriately regulated, mandated, and held accountable for the safety of their consumers?

From the perspective of an entrepreneur, 'Regulators' need reinventing. To my mind I think of a 'regulator' as a mechanical instrument - for example, a tap. Regulators control the flow - regulators control the pace - regulators control what gets through and what is not allowed to get through. Regulators by definition slow things down. Even if regulators turn the tap fully on, they take forever to do so; they always seem so reluctant; and everyone proceeds cautiously in fear that the tap could just as easily be 'turned-off' at any point. In an era of unprecedented opportunity for innovation and invention, my assertion is that we don't need 'regulators' - what's needed now are Facilitators. There is a massive difference.

Imagine if today you said you were an employee of a 'Regulator'. And tomorrow you said: "I work for a Facilitator - our organisation exists to help realise the opportunity of tomorrow, today."

What we need now is Forward Thinking.