Back to the (Virtual) Future

Four years ago, almost to the day, I and other colleagues in the industry were featured on the ABC Future Tense program: "Virtual Reality Explained By The Experts".

This was 6 months prior to leaving my role as CTO for Innovation at Hewlett Packard Enterprise Services (now DXC), one year prior to co-founding ACHIEVR with all the ups and downs that that has brought.

The program sought to explain what Virtual Reality (VR) is, how it is different from Augmented Reality (AR), and what it means. As a primer for immersive technologies or spatial computing, this article still stands; it is definitely worth the read. The article is an excerpt of a live panel interview hosted by Antony Funnell. If you have 43 minutes, this is worth a trip down memory lane. You can listen here: https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/futuretense/next-gen-tech-%E2%80%93-beyond-the-screen/7469990

Just a Gimmick?

Interestingly, the response to the question: Are there applications beyond just games? (paraphrase) still hold true:

• Connection (and by extension collaboration) as discussed in the Samsung use case of the contract miner's ability to be with his wife at the birth of their child from across a continent.
• Training as discussed by me, talking about the STRIVR sports training, and
• Enterprise use cases, such as Big Data analyses.

Where are my AR Contact Lenses?

Equally, my response back then to the question: "Will AR be a mainstream technology soon?" also still holds true...

We know adoption of a technology into mainstream requires both the technical features (function) and social acceptance (form.) Back then even Bluetooth headsets weren't yet mainstream. This after 15 years of consumer availability! Just as we needed both technology progress to add stereo to BT, and minituarise batteries for all day use; we also needed a design powerhouse like Apple to make stereo BT headsets "cool." (Not to mention remove the headphone jack on the X to force the issue)

But It's 2020 Already...

Despite my misgivings, back in 2016 even I was a lot more bullish about the advent of mainstrean (wearable) AR. Now, not so much. The consensus is this is still probably years, rather than months, away.

Frankly, there are "laws of phsyics" problems we have yet to solve with the technology. The vergence-accommodation conflict for one. Also the minituarisation challenge for computer and graphics processors, display technologies, and batteries, that would allow for a lightweight, whole day wearable, head mounted display.

The Microsoft Hololens 2 is a great example of some 15 or more years R&D in this space, and is remarkable technology. The Magic Leap 1 shows what you can do with $8 billion (yep, you read that right) of investment and six years of R&D. Even the Meta 2 (tethered) display showed promise. But of these companies that are still in business, all have pivoted to Enterprise applications.

Let's be honest, even if these headsets did work longer than a couple of hours, it is unlikely we would wear them continuously. But then these all aspire to the more complex "Mixed Reality" where the objects you see interact with the real world: reflecting light, occlusion, responding to physical forces and human interaction - think of a digital ball you can throw that bounces off tables and rolls behind the sofa. What about a simple Heads Up Display (HUD) - that just overlays 2D shapes or alphanumeric digits across your vision. Well, Google Glass demonstrated how society responded to such a device. Glasshole anyone?!

In short, no-one (ok, ok, not everyone) is wearing a Google Glass or a MS Hololens on the bus, in the cafe, or to dinner anytime soon. It is going to take a device powerhouse to make it "cool." Apple? Perhaps...

Of course, "content is king!" There is no point in having wearable AR without valuable content. Which is why all the tech giants: FAMGA i.e. Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon not to mention Snap, and Samsung, are pushing developer communities to develop mixed reality (incl. AR and VR) content. Much like the App store was delayed on the iPhone for a year so there was plenty of choice from the get go, these companies need available, compelling content when they do launch their "glasses."

So What Can We Consider "Mainstream?"

What I'm interested in, however, is our progress from that Future Tense perspective to Present Tense. The consensus, as evidenced at least by investment, is that Spatial (AR) and Immersive (VR) Computing will be how we interact with technology. But do we still see this as sci-fi, some futuristic vision, or as mature engineering, currently available, adopted seamlessly.

Technology Progress?

Four years is an age in technology tempo. If we were just to follow Moore's Law, all our devices would be 4x more performant than those in 2016. Let alone Metcalfe's Law (which has to do with the exponential effect of networks).

Sure enough, since those heady days of the Oculus Rift v1, the HTC Vive, and later the Windows Mixed Reality headsets, we have seen subsequent improvements in resolution, the shift to "inside-out" tracking, and of course the advent of the first 6DoF , affordable, "stand-alone headset" in the Oculus Quest. One year later and the Quest is still the best way to experience VR.

Social Acceptance?

First comes the platform, then the application, and then the adoption. In an ideal world, these three become a flywheel. A virtuous cycle of supply increasing demand for ever increasing supply. But the world is hardly ideal. For some technologies (e.g. the automobile, jet aviation) it has taken world wars to drive the funded research, industrial production and mass education needed for such technologies to become mainstream.

Right now we are experiencing the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Self-isolation and social distancing has driven masses to work from home. So whilst neither web conferencing, nor collaboration technologies are new, the nexus of widespread broadband deployment, and sudden requirement to be "virtually" present has opened the eyes of organisations and individuals alike to the benefits of telework.

This is all well and good for the information worker who spends most of their day in front of a computer. It really doesn't matter whether that computer is on an office desk, or on the dining room table (although I don't recommend working from the dining room table). For face-to-face meetings, web conferencing has revolutionised everything from interviews to virtual happy hours.

The VR epiphany

Several companies such as:

• The dominant: Facebook (Oculus Rooms, Oculus Venues & Facebook Horizons), Microsoft (AltSpace)
• To the mature: VRChat, RecRoom, BigscreenVR Beta, Mozilla Hubs
• The Silicon Valley darling: Spatial.io
• To the Scandic challengers: Glue, MeetinVR
• and more

Are building Virtual Collaboration spaces for different purposes from work collaboration to social interaction.

From a work point of view, these still largely benefit information workers. Perhaps those that need specific environments or spatial presence to collaborate. Imagine working on a 3D design, or needing to inspect a facility.

At ACHIEVR we use these experiences to collaborate with customers for things like VR pre-production.

As collaboration spaces, these are all superior to video conference. Even the subtle introduction of spatial audio, hearing someone speak from where they are in the room, enhances the experience inestimably. And being able to workshop with sticky notes, kanbans, and whiteboards, or even inside a 360 photo, beats sitting on an aeroplane for hours.

And therein lies the rub. What about the Non-Information worker. What about the person who needs to be present with more than just a face and voice? Perhaps they need to operate machinery; understand interactions in space; or teach/assess such practical skills.

Training schools can substitute a classroom of desks, projector and whiteboard for their virtual equivalents like Zoom and Miro; but they can't substitute for a cafe, a courtroom or a construction site. Until now.

Are we there yet?

Back in 2016 Antony Funnell mentions that the AR/VR market was speculated to be $120b by this year. Actual figures are about a 1/6th of that. So for even the most optimistic VR evangelist like myself VR isn't mainstream.

Despite the affordability of equipment, the accessibility of high impact experiences, and demonstrably saving organisations millions whilst improving outcomes.

Yet...

...the Oculus Quest is flying off the shelves, and largely unobtainable due to demand;

...leading enterprises like Walmart, VW, Volvo have been using AR/VR for collaboration and training;

...and entertainment experiences from Rock Concerts, Sporting Events, Movies and Games are beginning to earn multiple millions of dollars.

As expected the next round of headsets will be lighter, faster, with superior displays, and crucially, constantly connected. Computing power means will allow hand tracking, thereby making experiences even more intuitive and compelling.

So no, AR/VR is not yet mainstream. However:

• Both AR and VR are well adopted within enterprise, and a viable option to ensure your business can thrive in a post-COVID "low touch" world.
• AR will become mainstream as soon as AR Glasses allow people to connect with their loved ones in the comfort of their own homes more comfortably and easily than Zoom.

What are your thoughts? Could you use AR or VR to overcome the COVID-19 restrictions in your business?

The Author:

Roger Lawrence is a passionate technologist, and itinerant traveller. He has been working with emerging technologies for 30 years; implemented the first Remote Access System for Nokia UK in 1995; led the team that built the first hosted MS Exchange and Office platform, Optus a-Services in 2000; and even featured in an article about "teleworking" in the Sydney Morning Herald in 2003.

He has been working with AR and VR since 2015 whilst at HPE, and developed solutions for organisations of all sizes. Now he runs ACHIEVR, a startup dedicated to solving tough training challenges for individuals and organisations using immersive computing (AR, VR, MR). You can connect with him on LinkedIn