Back to (Universal) Basics - The Future of Work and Healthcare post-COVID

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October 2019

Wuhan International Airport, China

Sitting in an almost deserted departure lounge at the new international airport complex, I was on my way back to Heathrow after attending the opening of the new 3,000 bed Guiqian International General Hospital earlier in the week. It has often been my practice during international travel to sit and reflect on my good fortune to be a “Baby Boomer” and to have lived through some of the most remarkable changes in human history.

Like so many parents of baby boomers, my father had lived through the hardships of the Second World War. This conflict had deprived him of the chance of a university education and he, like many others, wanted his offspring to have the chances he never had. Apart from his RAF service in India, he never had the chance to the kind of international travel that I have been blessed with and have taken for granted.

Despite this feeling of warm contentment at my own happy situation, I was also conscious that my good fortune was not likely to be enjoyed by the millennial generation. The human race seemed to be sleepwalking into the combined global challenges of the ageing society, lifestyle-related medical conditions that threatened to overwhelm public services and the threat of environmental catastrophes brought about by global warming and consumption.

At this time of low unemployment and healthy economies my worries about the future of our planet did not envisage that, within a few months, life would never be the same and that this trip to China might be my last trip outside of the UK.

August 2020

Alderton Village, Northants, UK

Sitting at home writing this article on my laptop, I can once again reflect on my good fortune to be a baby boomer living in a rural village. I am still able to take my morning walks and continue my passion for the application of the digital technologies which shape our futures and hold the potential to build a better and more sustainable world.

Today, the world is very different from the one I left in Wuhan. The human race is still, it seems, almost sleepwalking into a catastrophic future in which the future lives of billions of people hang in the balance as Governments across the world struggle to deal with a pandemic that costs lives and destroys economies.

Ironically, it seems to me that the characteristics of Coronavirus and our response to it have helped to address the global challenges of the ageing society, lifestyle medical conditions and environmental sustainability by impacting the elderly and those with lifestyle-related conditions whilst simultaneously almost stopping travel and reducing carbon emissions.

These positive effects on the global challenges of October 2019 have come at the cost of many thousands of deaths, badly damaged economies and a legacy of public debt and other problems that will hang like a millstone around the Millennial generation.

At times, when I listen to the news or read predictions about an economic rebound, I feel as if I am living in an alternative universe. It is as if the experts who have shaped the decisions and policies that affect our lives have not foreseen the consequences of those decisions on the future of society and sustainable lifestyles.

I do not envy leaders and politicians at a time like this. The “New Normal” is building divisions between people with whole economic sectors decimated and constant pressure to adopt special support measures at a great cost to the taxpayer.

Back to (Universal) Basics

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

These unprecedented times need foresight and vision to navigate. Crises such as this should force us to go back to basics and learn from the lessons of history and the nature of human beings in crisis situations. Crises always bring out the best and worst in human nature. We have seen myriad examples of self-sacrifice to help others as well as criminal activities targeting the most vulnerable.

Exceptional times call for exceptional thinking and vision if we are to avoid “worst-case scenarios” in which economies and industries collapse beyond the point of no recovery.

It should now be clear that, even if and when a vaccine for coronavirus is readily available, there is little prospect of a return to previous routines.

·      Many people will lose their jobs either because their industries fail or because of digital automation, AI and robotics

·      The commercial property industry in cities will be decimated as corporates adopt home working

·      Higher Education will need to focus on vocational training and apprenticeships because many traditional professional careers will be replaced by technology

·      The travel, sport, live entertainment and hospitality industries may never recover despite our human desire to travel, meet and celebrate together

If these scenarios come to pass, we may be forced to consider measures like a Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a way of preventing social unrest and civil disruption from those affected by the crisis.

The way in which we view work and retirement needs to change. Even before coronavirus, the ageing society phenomenon was forcing Governments to realise that a dwindling proportion of “working-age” people could not support a growing population of elderly pensioners.

Human beings are essentially “hierarchical” by nature – I believe that this is part of the human DNA. From the time we are born, we are motivated to develop and improve our circumstances.

It is time to seriously consider Universal Basic Income (UBI) and new ways of helping everyone to lead a useful and sustainable life with opportunities to use and develop their talents in an equitable way.

Universal Basic Healthcare (UBH)

The UK’s National Health Service (NHS) has long been regarded as a flagship model for public health through its provision of healthcare to everyone, regardless of circumstances. Coronavirus has served to reinforce the importance of the NHS in our daily lives. The NHS co-exists with private healthcare organisations who provide additional services and priorities to those who can afford it.

Private Healthcare Insurance Companies are also part of this ecosystem whose sustainability is challenged by pandemics and also affected by lifestyle related medical conditions.

In many ways, Universal Basic Healthcare has exactly the same imperatives as UBI in providing equitable and affordable access to medical treatments that balance the challenges of communicable diseases, individual genetic conditions and forecast lifestyle-related conditions.

UBH is potentially a way to look after people who become ill through no fault of their own – either through communicable diseases or pre-existing genetic conditions.

The arguments against UBH are paralleled by the arguments against UBI in that those who are socially responsible and look after their health are being required to subsidise those whose medical conditions are the result of chosen unhealthy lifestyles. Technology can and will help to address this situation with UBH and medical insurance business models by tracking of physical activity and vital signs and providing incentives to encourage healthy lifestyle practices.

Conclusions

Although there are arguments for and against UBI and UBH, the legacy of coronavirus and its economic impact may force their implementation, if only to avoid social unrest and to protect the future generations.

These are uncertain times which should cause us to reflect on what is valuable to humanity and what we should fight to preserve.

IORMA WEBINAR

The Future of Work and Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Thursday September 3rd at 14:00 BST