Back to reality, here comes gravity

Human-caused climate change will be with us for a long time to come. The EU can do two big things:

• reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
• put in place measures to cope with the results of climate change

To date, the EC, EU Parliament, and national governments have been focused on the reduction of greenhouse gases and not AS focused on dealing with the consequences of climate change. As if they could reduce their way out of climate change. They can not.

Why not?

Even if the EU cut its greenhouse gases to zero, climate change would still rage into the future. No one says that out loud, but we all know it is true.

Earlier in March, the European Environmental Agency published its "European Climate Risk Assessment" and boy or boy, it is a doozie.

Here is one of the most sobering graphs.

The highest numbers modeling out to 2100 show heat increases of 5-8 degrees. For reference, the U.S. NOAA estimates current increases are about at about 1.5 degrees and expected to continue to rise. Remember the graph above, 85% of global emissions are from outside Europe.

In order to prevent the most catastrophic global warming predictions, all the EU needs to do is convince all the other countries in the world to take climate change as seriously as the EU is taking it.

Since that is not going to happen...

The main points of the European Climate Risk Assessment are to try and shake policymakers out of their stupor.

1. All stakeholders must figure out together who can pay for which parts of the climate mitigation work. Currently, the available funding mechanisms are a confusing and overlapping mix of provincial, regional, metro-area, national, multinational, and EU-wide funding. Each of these levels have different political forces representing them and they are each subject to periodic changes in leadership. This will not do. The huge investment levels needed for mitigation projects need to be funded for decades to come.
2. Climate change is a risk multiplier that will exacerbate existing risks and crises. Emergencies inside and outside Europe will cascade, build, and multiply because of climate change. The risks of both years-long draughts and severe floods will increase. Sea level rise will continue and cause upwards of 1 trillion Euros of damage each year by the end of the century.
3. Work must begin immediately to restore natural systems. Coastal and marine systems are already facing grave threats and climate change is exacerbating unsustainable management practices and industrial pollution.?Healthy ecosystems help to offset some of the negative impacts such as coastal flooding. A key first step was expected to happen in the coming months with the adoption of the Nature Restoration Law. HOWEVER, after the law was narrowly approved by the European Parliament in February, it has been delayed indefinitely by the Belgian presidency of the European Council since it does not have enough support to pass. (Remember the parliament represents EU citizens while the council represents EU Governments one vote per country.) The Council is the group of heads of state of each of the EU member countries. There is currently not a majority to pass the law.
4. Agricultural systems are going to have to change, A LOT. The continent faces a growing risk of megadroughts that span large regions and last for several years, and that are even more severe than recent drought events in Europe. Also, southern Europe is hot and it is expected to become still hotter and dryer. The Climate Risk Assessment says that Europeans are going to need to curb their consumption of meat because meat production uses so much water. I think that is going to be a tough sell. Maybe it will happen via meat prices as the cost of drinking water increases and scarcity grows. Or it might happen with trade as different regions of Europe become meat production powerhouses. (I'm looking at you five degrees warmer Sweden.) Overall the CAP needs to be adjusted in ways to incentivize less water-thirsty crops. (I will add that to the growing list of CAP reforms I think are needed. ;-)
5. NOW is the time to begin to address sea level rise. Yes, seas are only rising a few millimeters per year, for now. However, as temperatures rise, and ice melts, this problem will grow geometrically. It is truly a situation where by the time you see the problem it is too late to address it. And we all know that figuring out which solution will be best, and then figuring out the funding for that solution will take a lot of time (See point #1 above). Coastal flooding and storm surges will become more frequent and more severe, “with potentially devastating impacts on Europe’s population, infrastructure and economic activities.”?So we need to start now figuring out the mitigation strategies. (Except the Dutch, I'm pretty sure we all know which approach they will select.)

It seems that the tenor of this report is at least a step in the right direction. Gone are the EU official dreams extolling the virtues of reducing CO2 emissions. Instead, it is a clear-eyed view of the mad max world that awaits us in the +2 degrees or +3 degrees (or more) future. I hope we see much more focus on mitigation in the months and years to come.