back to parliament: Fall 2024

We usually expect summer to be a slow period in politics. MPs are home from Ottawa, flipping burgers or pancakes at community events, stopping by the Calgary Stampede, and meeting their voters. We expect that the political maneuvering and action will slow down.

Well, it didn’t. This summer was bookended by two sets of by-elections and a surprise NDP announcement shaking up Ottawa’s political circles.

the by-elections

On June 24, Toronto-St. Paul’s elected Don Stewart – the first Conservative to represent that riding since 1993 and the first Conservative MP representing a riding in Toronto since 2015. In many ways, this by-election was a referendum on the Liberal Government, and particularly on the Prime Minister who has been becoming increasingly unpopular in polling .

The failure to hold Toronto-St. Paul’s – a seat considered safe for the Liberals – indicates something seriously amiss in the governing Liberal Party’s direction and the strength of surging Conservative support.

This week, the Liberals lost another safe seat, this time to the Bloc Québécois (BQ) in a tight three-way race . LaSalle-émard-Verdun, on the south-end of Montréal, was the seat of former Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti and of former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin.

The same night, voters in Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona elected the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) Lelia Dance as their representative in Ottawa with nearly half the vote. Despite the NDP win, it is notable that the Conservative vote surged nearly 15% compared to 2021, and the Liberal vote utterly collapsed – not even breaking 5% .

These results beg the question: are any seats safely Liberal?

confidence & supply

On September 4, Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP announced that he was “ripping up” the supply and confidence agreement (SACA) between the NDP and governing Liberals, citing Liberal inaction on “corporate greed”.

This agreement, signed on March 22, 2022, committed the NDP to vote with the Government on matters of confidence in exchange for the Liberals pushing ahead on NDP policy priorities, including dentalcare and pharmacare.

For the past few months, the question has been when, not if, the SACA would be abandoned. With recent polls suggesting that only 24% of Canadians see a “big difference” between the Liberals and the NDP, it was a political necessity for both to exit the agreement and start to contrast one another.

This does not necessarily mean that we’re headed for an immediate election – though it increases the chances. For the past two years, the SACA has been a stabilizer: as long as the terms of the agreement were met, the Government was secure. Without it, we’re in a minority parliament without guardrails.

With lackluster polling and fundraising numbers, it’s unlikely that the NDP or BQ would willingly trigger an election any time soon. But in a minority government, anything can happen and votes can go sideways. And political parties lay traps for one another and will do their best to force other parties into tough positions.

For instance, the NDP has signaled opposition to the unpopular “Liberal version” of a carbon tax – opposition which has propelled the upswing Conservative Party support. Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, has indicated that he will put forward a motion of no confidence in the Government over the carbon tax, testing the NDP’s recent opposition to the carbon tax.

What this all will amount to and when or whether the next election will be triggered this fall remains anyone’s guess.

ending poverty globally: we’re still waiting

At Results, we often say that there are “growing global needs” that Canada needs to step-up and help address. For those of you who read our Calls to Action or follow the work of our partner organizations, that phrase might sound a bit worn to you.

It does to us, too. But the far too real situation is that needs are growing. The progress on ending poverty over the last 20 years is slipping away, and, if we are to meet even some of the Sustainable Development Goals, we need bold action from our Government.

Back in January , I said that we need to see a vision of Canada’s role in the world from all parties. We are still waiting.

Despite instability in Parliament and the prospect of an election hanging over us all, every one of Canada’s parties must build their support for Canada’s role in the world, and commit taking bold and constructive positions that will ensure Canadian leadership in providing for the health, wellbeing, and dignity of millions around the world. We cannot allow political expediency at home to force current and future governments to abandon millions around the world.

Whenever the next election is and whatever the outcome, Canada cannot miss real opportunities for global impact. Throughout the fall and into the new year, there are several opportunities for each to show continued Canadian support for meaningful investments in immunization and nutrition which will save lives worldwide.

One way we’re moving things forward across party lines is the Global Cooperation Caucus (GCC). Supported by Results and ONE Canada, the GCC brings together MPs from all parties to discuss global issues, work on common goals, and push for progress.

This fall, we are looking forward to watching a Parliament that will be more interesting and unpredictable than ever. You can take action today and tell parliamentarians that you care about how our Government shows up to address global problems by

• Reading our Call to Action
• Scheduling a meeting with your MP to discuss the importance of bold action to fight extreme poverty around the world,
• Joining our October 3 Action Kick-off meeting
• Signing up to our emails and following us on social media: X , Instagram , LinkedIn , and Facebook .