Back to normal?

Last weekend I went back to an in-person yoga class. Since Feb 2020 that the yoga studio I attend has been closed due to Covid. It felt great. There is something about social gatherings for humans that does not compare to connecting virtually. Another student of the same studio said that doing yoga in a group feels more powerful than doing it alone at home. It is energy!

Two weeks ago I also went to a business dinner and it felt liberating, almost exhilarating, to meet people with whom I have been interacting virtually over the past 18 months. I met some of them for the first time face to face and it felt like a virtual reality experience. I had known them very well in 2D, and all of the sudden, I was seeing the full 3D reality.

I'm hearing similar stories from others that are going back to normal in person social interaction, but I'm wondering how much of it will go back to pre-Covid standards, or our perception of what we though was normal before. McKinsey's recent article on "What's next for consumers, workers, and companies in the post-COVID-19 recovery", starts by saying that the "pandemic has changed our life forever". The reality is that things will change but, in my view, these changes are not new, they started years and in some cases decades ago, but the great majority of people where not seeing it.

When our "normal" changes slowly we don't notice it, it is like the frog being boiled slowly. I have seen this happening with yoga, mindfulness and meditation practice. Sixteen years ago, when I started my regular practice not many people had it in their weekly routines, let alone the business community. Even eight years ago, when I moved back to US, the practice of mindfulness was barely starting to grow, despite that I live in a fairly progressive state that is typically ahead in these mindsets and practices. Today, most people have heard about these practices and many have tried them or have incorporated them into their lives.

Any personal and societal change takes a long time and needs catalysts and motivators to grow. No doubt that the Covid Pandemic has been a huge catalyst for digital transformation, however, that did not start in 2020! The problem is that when our "normal" changes quickly, we feel the disruption and like the frog, we jump to resist to it.

So, how much we will evolve and grow thanks to such Covid-19 and how much we will tend to go back to the old comfort?

My sense and prediction is that less than what we see today will change in the long term and that most things will go back to the "normal", although what is considered normal is in constant evolution and has been since the beginning of times. Changes we have seen in the pandemic are actually changes that started years earlier and accelerated this past year. Let's see a few examples:

• Leisure travel - The trend there was to travel everyday more. I am from Barcelona and the number of people that have been there has been consistently increasing over my lifetime. Years ago many people could not even locate the city it in the map, now I frequently hear: "ah Barcelona!, one of my favorite cities, I have been there several times". People are not going to travel less than before, we saw a huge increase in RV demand during the past 18 months because people wanted to continue travelling, even when a lot of places where "closed" and there was certain danger or uncertainty in doing so.
• Business travel - This is a huge industry for airlines, hotels, conference centers, restaurants, taxi and limo services, etc. The trend there was to grow due to the increase number of people in the workforce and the affordability and convenience of travel. I think that we will go back to normal there, even if it is not normal to cross the US for a 1h meeting, no matter how important that meeting is. When I was at Hewlett-Packard I travelled once from San Diego to Tokyo for a 2h meeting and I came back the next day. Was that normal? It was a big issue with a supplier and the potential monetary impact was huge, but could we have dealt with that situation though a virtual call? I'd like to say yes but the reality is, knowing the Japanese culture well, that what we accomplished in that meeting (including the social gathering at night drinking sake at a karaoke bar) it would have been hard to accomplish virtually. In some instances, however, I see people making different decisions in the future to reduce travel. I was recently asked to go to Peru for a 1h meeting with a CEO and I asked them to do the call online. Business travel has a huge impact in CO2 emissions but this hardly gets into the equation for decision making, until some day it will!.
• Office work and business meetings - The trend in this industry was to work more and more remotely and to increase flexibility and work-life balance into people's busy lifes. The trend was caused by long commutes, an ever raising housing market in areas where businesses are growing, and the inability to attract top talent due to preferences in living style. So this trend will continue and it looks like Covid gave it a huge boost, but certain professionals have already experienced one of my life mottos: "Work Anywhere, Live Anywhere": Sales people, writers, accountants, consultants and many other independent professions that don't need to show up in an office or factory to do their job effectively. On the other side, depending on personality, people prefer a work environment where they can interact with others or at least feel the buzz of people around them. I know many people that for years have been working remotely or independently that went to work at cafes or social areas just to be with other people. Sharing office space has also been a global trend, in part due to the high cost of maintaining an exclusive office but in part because people want to go out and see other people, get in a car and establish a routine of getting out of the house. Some rating agencies such as IMF and Fitch stated that the value office space will fall from 15% to 50% in America depending on how many days a week people work from home in average. This is definitely a disruption that landlords of office space will have to endure for a few years until it all stabilizes again.
• Purchasing habits - Obviously the trend of buying online started many years ago and has been lead by Amazon. The convenience to buy something with the push of a button is difficult to beat, but many times we don't look for convenience. People will continue going out and buying things they don't really need for the pleasure to go out shopping with family, friends or sometimes alone. I don't think this is going away either.
• Training and Development - This is an area that impacts our business at CCL directly. A large percentage of our programs where delivered face to face. Like other leadership development providers, we have evolved to a virtual model and we will end up into a hybrid model. The question is how many people will come back to wanting to travel and meeting people face to face vs connecting remotely with the convenience of the virtual world. Again, the trend here was already to move to online, masters and shorter leadership development programs but my sense is that with time the majority of people will prioritize an in-person training again when looking for experiences that are potentially live changing like an MBA or a good leadership development program.

In summary, my prediction is that in a very limited time, the world will go back to old ways of doing, which in many respects is very reassuring and in some others is terribly worrying, especially when it comes to implications for our planet.

There is many other examples and industries I did not discuss here; what about medical research? or capital markets? Many young people started investing in the stock market and cryptocurrency during this past 18 months, will that continue over time?

I'd love to get your reactions to this! What changes do you think are going to stick in the long term after the pandemic?