Back to the future in West Africa for the UK ?

UK moves back to the future in West Africa

• Published on 9th May 2023

Status is online

Terry Lacey

Just as we were struggling to grasp the idea of post-Brexit Global Britain, the slogan seems to have been dropped. Goodbye go-it-alone Global Britain and hello refreshed foreign and defence policies and linkages that lead right back to closer relations with the EU. A new realism seems to be emerging from the fog of war. What does this mean for UK commitments to allies and partners in West Africa ? To go it alone, or to go with the EU ?

West Africa and the Sahel are the nearest region where the West risks being outflanked by Putin and the Wagner group. The EU is already deploying a soft power counter-strategy there. But what is happening to the UK international cooperation budget ? This makes up a big chunk of UK soft power resources.

Following the triple whammy of Brexit, COVID and the war in Ukraine the UK slashed its development co-operation budget from 0.7 to 0.5% of GDP. The UK now spends more than ￡3.5 billion per year on accommodation for illegal immigrants, refugees, asylum seekers and cross-Channel boat people. This is paid for from the UK aid budget, absorbing more than one third of annual UK international development expenditure. UK international development actual outreach spending has therefore halved from ￡14 billion to ￡7 billion.

The UK could reduce this diversion of international aid budget soft power by issuing temporary visas to asylum seekers whilst finalizing their status, encouraging them to support themselves and the UK economy. The alternative to this introspective focus on stopping the boats and illegal migration is a properly resourced UK international soft power policy framework. This should be based on an integrated approach to defence, security, foreign policy, trade and investment promotion and international development. This way the UK can address the causes of migration and support refugees and asylum seekers.

If Great Britain still want to be a world class player then it probably needs to devote 3% of GDP on foreign policy and soft power, to be spent via a range of Ministries, Departments and Agencies and another 3% on defence and security.

Following large scale spending on two aircraft carriers, and ambitious plans to build nuclear-powered attack submarines with Australia, the UK must urgently ramp up ammunition supply for itself and Ukraine. UK parliamentary criticism of poor management of UK armoured vehicle procurement contrasts with UK undertakings to deploy armoured capacity with NATO on the Eastern flank of Europe. But the UK is way behind on this. Shades of 1938 and too little too late.

This is not the time to cut the UK international development budget in half. Non-military responses in West Africa and the Sahel can make a big difference. Insecurity in the Sahel is spreading south to the coastal countries, already affecting Northern Benin and Togo, threatening UK trade and investment target markets in Nigeria and Ghana.  The President of Ghana just confirmed this.  Millions of farmers with good incomes supplying factories to process food products will be more use than a few thousand foreign troops scattered across the Sahel from Mali to Chad. Plus support to strengthen civil society and local security measures. Where are the UK-backed development projects, programs and finance to help do this ? Now the UK has set up embassies across the Sahel this is the right time to increase deployment of British development finance to promote trade, investment, economic development and improved governance.

Clearly UK is now improving linkages with EU security measures and logistical plans alongside direct military support via NATO. Russia has puts its economy on a war footing and the EU and UK are playing catch-up. Some, like Poland, are doing much better at this. The EU is promoting the largest international cooperation soft power cooperation strategy in the world and has become a soft super power, whilst the military power of its member states is expressed bilaterally and via NATO.  The UK is increasingly linking up with Eastern flank states on security, including a strong commitment to Ukraine.

It is inevitable that the UK will move towards a new kind of Association Agreement with the EU, aimed at improved cooperation and coordination rather than membership. A key component of this must be closer UK political cooperation with EU Mediterranean policy and EU initiatives to help stabilize the Sahel and West Africa.  This is the new front line on the Southern flank. If the UK is to help support its West African allies and partners effectively in the next decade, then this will have to be in close cooperation with the EU.  This will bring advantages to UK firms in terms of access to contracts generated by such cooperation, and on a much larger scale than the UK can do on its own.

The advantage for West Africa will be a more concerted, supportive and reliable co-operation policy from Europe, with the UK integrated into this wider framework on the basis of political cooperation between sovereign nations. Such an approach could initially cover the Mediterranean, North and West Africa. Political cooperation with the EU is not a threat to UK sovereignty. But UK sovereignty is under threat unless the UK can take adequate steps to defend its interests. The best way to do this in West Africa and the Sahel is with the EU.