Back to the Future of Virtual?Reality
February 15 this year marks the 4th year of Chronos. It was in 2015 that we had our launch event and it seems like it was only yesterday that we brought VR to Luke Skywalker’s Back to the Future event at the Living Computer Museum & Labs.
It was a different time then. Seattle thrived in an atmosphere of great excitement. There was no consumer version of VR yet. Developers were using prototypes that included mostly the Oculus DK1 and DK2. Some companies were lucky to have a Vive prototype (I’d like to write about how my company was fortunate to get a Vive prototype from Valve another time)
Some people thought that VR adoption would happen very quickly. Some people would state that in just a couple of years everyone would have a VR headset. We are now in 2019, and VR has not yet had mainstream adoption. I have even read articles stating that VR is dying. I however, am not discouraged about the speed of adoption the industry has seen. VR is not dying. The problem has to do in large part with unrealistic expectations.
I’m not here to talk about how great my career has been in high-tech. It’s very difficult to build a company, and it’s impossible to predict the future. My 20 years of experience in high-tech has had me see and understand that technological advancement does not come easy nor is it a natural thing. It’s based on the very hard work and dedication of tens of millions of people. This article by the US Department of Labor states that 10% of employment in the United States is in the high-tech industry or about 15 million people.
I do not take the work required for technological progress for granted. To build the XR industry we envision; for Virtual Reality to reach its full potential (the Metaverse), it is going to take a long time (perhaps decades). If the number of high-tech workers in the US amounts to 15 million people, and you consider that the US is one of the most populous countries with some of the most successful software companies — and then you look at the number of people who are working in the VR/AR space, you quickly draw the conclusion that the number of people required to build the next computing platform and environment simply isn’t there: for software and hardware.
On the hardware side, VR is the brick cell phone. AR is still a first generation prototype. The good news is that VR is a stable product. The larger issues, like the cost of the device and the cost of hardware capable of giving the user a good experience, have been solved. VR/AR hardware is making leaps and bounds as well. This headset (Varjo VR-1) can display the virtual world at a resolution better than most people can see and Microsoft is soon to announce the second generation of their AR product the hololens. The bigger challenge is on the software side. More compelling content is showing up, but for the taste of many, it’s not happening fast enough. VR is still only mostly games. But this won’t be the case forever, or even for long.
Virtual Reality is not a new technology. As a medium, VR has existed for over 20 years. Only recently however, an experience that cost over a million dollars and could only be found in a lab, can now be purchased on amazon for less than the cost of today’s smartphones. What’s different now is, thanks to some pioneers and the smartphone revolution, we have mobile chips with more processing power than your laptop from 6 or 7 years ago. These will be used to power the next generation of VR devices like the Oculus Quest and will drive the further adoption of VR/AR. From hereon, VR has to evolve on its own. And strapping on a headset on your head is still a big step for most people.
Again, we should celebrate that VR is so affordable today. Back in 2015/2016, room-scale VR was still only a dream. There were no VR consumer products. I am grateful to the large tech companies that are investing in this medium and spending the money necessary in R&D and developing the hardware.
On the software front though, the industry still has a long ways to go. There are simply not enough people creating content, and the people creating apps are mostly indie developers and small studios. Large studios have not yet committed to developing content for VR. It’s a catch-22 situation, and how do you beat it?
Instead of answering that question, I’d rather answer the question “what are we (Chronos) doing to beat this catch-22 situation that the industry is in?”
We have the Academy, and probably the most effective program for teaching people the necessary skills to create immersive content. And since we started in 2015 we have remained active and committed to sharing XR with people, and we recruit people to join our Academy so they can learn to create content.
Mostly we work with early adopters: people who are visionaries and very passionate about this new and most powerful medium. The jobs in the XR industry are still not in huge numbers, so those doing it for the money are unlikely candidates to commit to the task (another catch-22 situation). Having said that, I do strongly believe that the time will come in which the number of jobs will outnumber the people with the skills required for XR Development. If you are a visionary and willing to invest in a future that could be 2, 3 or 5 years away, then consider applying for our main VR Development Certification course.
The reason we all enjoy the fruits of the Internet that exists today (which we cannot live without) is largely due to the great number of people who were generous in offering their talent and their work to develop the internet protocols that make this instant communication, commerce and entertainment possible today. The internet could not have been built by one single company. Similarly, the Metaverse cannot be built by one single company. We need more XR companies in the space. We need a lot more developers and creatives in this industry.
The true power of VR, in my opinion, is not with games and entertainment. The true power of XR is with education. It’s for this reason I set out Chronos to be a company that creates educational and productivity content.
When education is done by simulations and visualizations, and no more textbooks are required, students will learn much faster and more effectively. And then, we will discover our true power, the power to create. For me, this is a cause that’s worth dedicating my life to.
If this vision inspires you, then join our cause and join our family. We need a much bigger family to create this new virtual dimension where so much more becomes possible.
Technical Program Management @ Microsoft
6 年I remember when you started out, I’m happy to see your continued success!