Back to the Bio-Future

What does the future hold for the bio-based sector?

Our journey today will take us through the past, present, and future of chemicals and materials—because, as Doc Brown said in Back to the Future, "If you put your mind to it, you can accomplish anything." And right now, our minds need to focus on a more sustainable, bio-based future.

Before we jump in, let's remember: history isn't just about the past—it's a guidebook for the future. By understanding how we once lived in harmony with nature, we can better predict and plan for a future that works with, not against, our planet's natural systems.

So, buckle up as we fire up the DeLorean and take a trip "Back to the BioFuture"—where our past and future collide.

Let's set the clock to 1850

Let's set the clock to 1850—before oil. The world was powered by nature. Chemicals and materials came from wood, cotton, hemp, flax, and wool. Energy came from biomass, water, and wind.

We lived in a bio-based world, whether we realized it or not.

But then came oil—cheap, abundant, and seemingly limitless. Plastics, synthetic fibres, fertilisers—all powered by fossil resources. It seemed like the future had arrived.

Little did we know that decision came with unintended consequences.

Fast-forward to today: 2025

Fast-forward to today: 2025. Our planet is feeling the strain of over 150 years of fossil dependence. Climate change, plastic pollution, and resource scarcity are the legacy of that decision. The chemical and materials industries alone emit over 2 billion tons of CO2 annually—more than double that of aviation.

Doc Brown warned us: "You're not thinking fourth-dimensionally." We've been stuck in a linear, fossil-based system: take, make, throw away—ignoring future impacts.

But what if we could go back—not to 1850, but to bio-based principles? Using modern science to work with nature, not against it?

Let's set the clock to 2050

Let's set the clock to 2050. Imagine a future manufacturing technology that could build a $500B UK industry, create thousands of skilled jobs, and significantly cut emissions. This opportunity is real and here now.

Our 2050 vision must be for the UK to lead in developing sustainable chemicals, helping us hit Net Zero targets while creating a world without waste.

Chemicals are in everything we rely on—food, clothes, phones, medicines. While energy can come from sources like wind and solar, chemical production requires carbon as a feedstock. To maintain these essential products while protecting the planet, we must use sustainable inputs.

Plants and trees are carbon-capturing champions. They can replace fossil materials in everything from plastics to personal care products. Unlike fossil resources, biomass returns only the carbon it absorbed during growth, maintaining atmospheric balance.

The future must be bio.

?From waste to Wealth

By 2050, waste must become a resource. We need to see waste as carbon-rich material to be captured, valorised, and re-entered into the UK economy.

Biotechnology can create new, higher-value products from this carbon waste. This 'bio-upcycling' approach can shift the chemical industry from a linear model to a circular one.

The key technology is Engineering Biology: the nature-inspired reprogramming of biology for industrial use.

Engineering Biology from the ground up

The flux capacitor of bio-innovation is charging. Scientists are using engineering biology to modify microbes to eat waste and produce high-value chemicals and materials—like fragrances from fatbergs, paracetamol from plastic, and textiles from mushrooms.

These aren't distant dreams; they're happening now. And companies adopting these materials are gaining market share as consumers prioritise sustainability.

As the Doc said, "Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads." The road ahead is about redesigning systems from the ground up.

?Half-way there, living on a prayer

We're at a pivotal midpoint here in 2025, halfway between the millennium and our 2050 Net Zero deadline. The next 25 years are critical, and the bioeconomy will be central to this transformation.

Remember NYE Y2K? The world braced for a technological meltdown. But thanks to proactive preparation, the lights stayed on, and planes stayed in the air. Y2K showed us the importance of action before a crisis hits—a lesson we need for the climate challenge.

Lessons from the past

So, what can we learn from the past?

The image below, published in The Daily Telegraph on December 31, 1999, reflects public predictions about events likely to happen by 2100. Among these, climate change ranked second, with 81% of respondents believing that global warming would lead to significant climate impacts.

Not only does this image show that as humans, we can be pretty crap at predicting the future, but it’s critical to recognise that we face an action gap, not an awareness gap. Discussions often centre on raising awareness about climate issues, to gain public support. However, this poll, from a right-leaning publication 25-years ago, already placed climate change high on the public’s list of concerns. Despite this awareness CO2, emissions have surged from 368 ppm in 1999, to 421 ppm today.

We face two core challenges:

An Action Problem: We know the stakes but aren't acting fast enough.

A Perception Problem: Climate change feels like a distant issue rather than a present crisis.

Loosing our competitive advantage

The UK has world-class expertise in bio-based chemicals and materials research, positioning us as potential global leaders. Yet, conflicting policies and regulations across government departments hinder commercialization. Previous strategies promised support, but policy changes haven't materialized.

The bioeconomy is key to ending waste and emissions. Low-value biomass can become high-value materials and chemicals, designed for circularity.

The pandemic showed how swiftly industry and academia can collaborate. We cut vaccine development from five years to under one. We must apply that urgency to defossilise chemicals and materials, securing a sustainable, prosperous future.

What could possibly go wrong?

So, what could possibly go wrong? These three words…

"Drill, baby, drill" sets the clock to 1875, not 2050. As Doc said, "Marty, you can’t go losing your judgment." We can't let short-term politics stall our progress.

Building a thriving bioeconomy

To build a thriving bioeconomy, we need bold action:

·?????? Scale Innovation: Invest in R&D and scale-up facilities.

·?????? Policy Support: Align regulations to support sustainable materials.

·?????? Public-Private Partnerships: Foster collaboration for faster commercialization.

·?????? Consumer Awareness: Educate people on the benefits of bio-based products.

?The future isn't written. It can be changed.

The next 25 years are our critical window. We cannot afford another Y2K-style panic in 2050.

By embracing the bioeconomy, we ensure 2050 is a milestone, not a deadline. As Marty McFly might remind us: "The future isn't written. It can be changed. You know that. Anyone can make their future whatever they want it to be." Let's make ours bio-based.

Now is the time to act. The future is bio-based. The countdown to 2050 has begun.