Back to the 80’s: Democrats need to pull off a “Triple Lindy”

The 2024 Presidential Election has meandered for nearly 3 ? years to a repeat matchup between essentially two incumbents, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.?The two men and their positions are so well known that it seems impossible for the basic trajectory of the race to change, even with tumultuous events like court cases and Middle East turmoil.?But with President Biden slightly trailing in the presidential polls, and the Democrats highly likely to lose the Senate as well, it is time for them to throw caution to the wind and attempt the “Triple Lindy’ solution.

For those who don’t remember the 1986 movie classic “Back to School,” aging clothes magnate turned college student Thornton Melon (played by Rodney Dangerfield) saves the fictitious Grand Lakes University swimming team in their big meet by pulling off the “Triple Lindy” dive. The preposterous effort required jumping from a diving podium, then bouncing across three different diving boards into the pool for a perfect 10. Now it is time for the Democrat Party leadership to execute a similarly difficult but winning move. Much like the dive, each of the three parts must be calibrated perfectly for the ploy to work.

First, whoever whispers to Supreme Court Justice Sonya Sotomayor convinces her to announce that she will resign her seat IF a successor is confirmed this Congress. It’s true, she’s not that old (she turns 70 later this month) and is a progressive icon, but if you are a liberal who cares about the trajectory of the court, not confirming a much younger justice now when Democrats control the presidency and the Senate is political malpractice. Should Sotomayor no longer be able to serve through the next president’s term, replacing her with a left-leaning justice would require both that Biden win reelection AND that the Senate have at least 50 votes willing to confirm a Biden nominee. However, increasing partisanship around court nominees makes a confirmation no sure bet if Republicans hold the Senate. In sum, the odds of ‘losing’ the seat, just as the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg situation handed Trump and Mitch McConnell a Supreme Court seat in 2020, are high enough to justify a transition now.

Second, nominate Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Sotomayor. Her poll numbers remain a rock around the Biden Presidency, she brings no special juice to a swing state, and Democrats seem even less interested in seeing her as their nominee in 2028 than they were in 2020. Having 51 Democrat-voting Senators to jam through a Harris nomination over the next few months is doable, although it would obviously require retiring members Joe Manchin and Kristin Sinema, plus some endangered red state Senators, to vote yes. However, Democrats have shown remarkable cohesion on Supreme Court fights and trading one liberal, female justice for another younger, female justice is a winnable fight. Harris would have to be convinced that 20 or 25 years as a Supreme Court justice would be more impactful than a 50-50 shot of a win in 2024 that might leave her as Vice President for four more years or possibly several years as a replacement President – it might be a close call but necessary as part of the overall plan.

For the third diving board, the Democrats select for their Vice Presidential nominee for 2024 a swing state player who can help deliver votes both nationwide and where it counts. The two most obvious candidates would be Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Georgia Senator Rafael Warnock. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg could also be a ground-breaking option, and there are others who might move the electoral needle such as North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, although they don’t deliver on the diversity front. Any of these candidates could help push Biden over the 2024 goal line and be an equal or more politically viable future presidential candidate as Harris.?

So that’s the political Triple Lindy the Democrats should attempt. In the movie, the diving coach says that dive is “too dangerous” to try. But what is dangerous for Democrats is risking a Supreme Court seat on a toss-up election and running a presidential candidate with underwater poll numbers with a Vice-President whose numbers are even worse. This triple maneuver solves three of their major political problems without requiring any Republican cooperation or forcing either President Biden or Vice President Harris into unwanted retirement.

In the movie, Rodney Dangerfield nails the dive, wins the meet and gets the girl. In real life, the stakes are much higher.