Azerbaijan: New Azerbaijan Party to sail to victory in snap Sep 1 Parliamentary Elections
Metodi Tzanov
Helping finance professionals understand what is going on in Emerging and Frontier Markets
Similar to the?Presidential Elections?held earlier this year, there is little uncertainty regarding the results from the upcoming Parliamentary vote this Sun.
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan scheduled early parliamentary elections for Sept. 1 in a?decree?published on Jun 28th. There was little surprise about this as the move was widely anticipated following earlier suggestions that snap Parliamentary Elections might be around the corner. The Constitutional Court also ruled the elections constitutional. The announced formal reason for moving the elections somewhat earlier than the legally mandated month of Nov is the hosting of the COP29 conference this Nov in Baku, which coincides with the regular schedule for the vote.
Azerbaijan is nominally a semi-presidential republic, with the President of Azerbaijan as the head of state, and the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan as head of government. Executive power is exercised by the president and the government. Checks and balances are nominally ensured by the legislature (Azerbaijan's National Assembly/Parliament/Milli Mejlis) and the Judiciary, but both institutions are in practice firmly controlled by the executive. The unicameral National Assembly has 125 deputies, all of them elected from single-member constituencies. There are nominal opposition parties and independents but they are supportive of President Aliyev.
The Parliament is still discharging key responsibilities:
Candidates:?991 candidates will be competing for seats in the Milli Majlis, of which 310 are from 25 political parties, and 681 are self-nominated or non-aligned.
Requirements for candidates:?Every citizen of Azerbaijan over the age of 25 can become a candidate for a deputy. The deputies are elected for a period of 5 years.
领英推荐
Ballots:?6516567 ballots were printed for more than 6 million voters.
Polling stations:?There are 6477 sites in total, of which 6343 are permanent and 134 are temporary. 1000 polling stations are equipped with high-resolution cameras for transparency and honesty of elections.
Observers:?The Central Election Commission has registered 604 international observers from 69 countries and over 110 thousand local observers. International observers from the Interparliamentary Assembly of the CIS will also monitor the parliamentary elections.
Parties:?Clearly NAP is vastly dominating the fractured array of opposition parties. The latter held only 10 seats in the previous Parliament and the situation is bound to be repeated this time around. 70 seats were occupied by Aliyev's NAP. There is, however, a strong tradition in Azerbaijan of non-aligned or 'independent' candidates and they, for example, held 41 seats in the previous National Assembly. The two most significant opposition parties are Musavat and the Real party. The former expressed concern over the persistent restrictions on fundamental democratic rights and freedoms, such as assembly, speech, and expression. It highlighted the ongoing detentions of political activists and journalists, emphasizing that these conditions hinder the conduct of fair and free elections. The latter highlighted the importance of participating in elections to maintain the party's activity and expand its influence. It noted that previous boycotts were ineffective, and argued that participating in the elections, despite unfavorable conditions, opens opportunities for the party's growth and advocacy. The other main opposition party, the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party (PFAP), decided to boycott the early parliamentary elections. According to the Chairman of the party, the decision was taken because there were more than 300 political prisoners in Azerbaijan, there is no freedom of assembly, free press or free competitive election environment, and independent local observers are not allowed to monitor elections, while electoral commissions are under the full control of the authorities, rendering it impossible to monitor the voting process and vote count.
Polls:?According to an opinion poll conducted by the US Oracle Advisory Group among 3000 people on 29 July - 9 August, 88% of respondents will vote for pro-government candidates in the snap parliamentary election on 1 September. A total of 70% of those polled said they would vote for the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, 6% for the opposition Musavat party and 4% for the opposition Real party. A total of 96% of the respondents said Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 Karabakh war directly influenced their preferences. A total of 85% said there was freedom of speech in Azerbaijan, while 10% said it was absent, and 5% preferred not to answer. Similarly, 97% said human rights were observed in Azerbaijan, 2% said they were not, and 1% preferred not to answer.
Similarly, some 71 percent of respondents rated the current situation in Azerbaijan as excellent, 20 percent as satisfactory, and 9 percent were unsure, according to a survey also conducted by the Oracle Advisory Group ahead of Azerbaijan's Parliamentary Elections. The Group's representative George Birnbaum added that considering the social situation, 89 percent of respondents believe the situation in Azerbaijan is positive.
Policies:?We anticipate little change in the course of domestic and foreign policy. As far as the former is concerned, the immediate focus will be on integrating Karabakh into Azerbaijan proper. The government has committed significant financial resources to achieving that goal, with the 2024 budget allocating about 10 percent of total expenditures to the new territories. This, along with the favorable base, will ensure that Azerbaijan will be the only country in the Caucasus and Central Asia enjoying accelerating GDP growth this year. In foreign policy, Aliyev is likely to maintain his hard-nosed approach to dealing with Armenia, although we foresee increasing chances of some form of a peace agreement being finally signed this year.