Axle Logistics Monthly Update - May 2024

Key Trends

• International Roadcheck week is scheduled for 5/14-5/16
• Multiple Holidays could cause supply challenges
• Mother’s Day to impact on Reefer supply

CVSA’s International Roadcheck Is Scheduled for May 14-16

The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance’s (CVSA) International Roadcheck is scheduled for May 14-16. International Roadcheck is a high-visibility, high-volume, commercial motor vehicle inspection and regulatory compliance enforcement initiative that takes place over three days in Canada, Mexico and the United States. CVSA-certified law enforcement personnel will inspect commercial motor vehicles and drivers at weigh/inspection stations, temporary sites, and via mobile patrols to verify compliance with federal, state, provincial or territorial regulations. Each year, International Roadcheck places special emphasis on a different category of violations. This year, International Roadcheck will have two focus areas – (1) tractor protection systems and (2) alcohol and controlled substance possession.

Supply Update

The number of for-hire motor carriers grew for the first time since March 2023 as FMCSA authorized 5,187 new for-hire carriers while only revoking the authority of 5,034. FTR’s Active Truck Utilization is currently at about 90% and is expected to exceed the 10-year average of 92% by the end of the year.

Demand Update

FTR’s 2024 forecast for total truck loadings fell in the last update, showing an increase of 0.3% vs an increase of 0.8% previously.

Two big movers in the latest reading were in the Dry Van and Flatbed space. Dry Van forecast is now for a 1.7% y/y increase vs 1.1% in the previous reading due to stronger automotive loadings. However, flatbed is moving the other direction, falling 1.4% y/y vs a prior projection of 0.6% growth. This change appears driven by a swing in building products.

Rate Update

Spot Rates continue to hover just under $2.00/mi for Dry Van and $2.30/mi for Reefer according to DAT’s Trendlines. Contract rates are also showing a decline, feeling the pressure of lower spot rates. May typically provides supply challenges as the CVSA Roadcheck, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day all put pressure on the broader market.

FTR reported a weaker total truckload rate outlook in the newest report, rates are forecast at -1.2% y/y vs down -0.4% previously. All equipment types saw increases in the forecasted drop vs the April release. The Dry Van forecast for March dropped from a -3.8% y/y % projection to -5.5%. Refrigerated also saw a notable change, moving from a forecast of -2.8% to -3.9%. For hire trucking added a seasonally adjusted 5,100 payroll jobs in March following an upward revision of 2,600 jobs to February’s numbers. That said, general freight is showing a little bit of a flattening. Employment in general freight is down 7,700 jobs, or 1.4% since May 2023.

Our Team

The spring cookout was all about celebrating the amazing people who make Axle great. It was awesome hanging out with everyone and getting to know each other better. Here's to good food, good times, and an even better team!

#AxleImpact

We are honored to highlight Make-A-Wish Foundation of East TN as our April Community Spotlight! Make-A-Wish Foundation bring hope and joy to kids facing critical illnesses by fulfilling life-changing wishes. By partnering with them, we’re honored to help turn dreams into reality!

Did you know...

The National Retail Federation estimates that Americans will spend about $33.5B for Mothers Day. The top 3 categories are Cards, Flowers, and Outings. This type of activity could equate to roughly 200,000 truckloads worth of products!