AWG Market Insights: Understanding Historical Price Trends of Waste Materials (2021–2023)

Over the past three years, the waste materials market has undergone significant fluctuations influenced by complex global economic conditions, evolving supply chain dynamics, and rapid technological advancements. This article rigorously examines the average annual prices of key waste materials from 2021 to 2023, offering a nuanced analysis of the factors driving these trends. Additionally, it provides a forward-looking perspective on estimated values for the next three to six months, contextualized within broader market trends, underlying economic drivers, and potential disruptions that could shape future price trajectories.

Scrap Metals

Scrap metals serve as a cornerstone of recycling industries, with their market prices reflecting broader economic activities. The valuation of scrap metals is inherently tied to global supply-demand dynamics, energy costs, and the performance of primary sectors such as automotive, construction, and manufacturing.

• Aluminium: Prices of aluminium escalated from ￡1,200 per tonne in 2021 to ￡1,500 in 2023, primarily driven by heightened demand in manufacturing and packaging sectors. Looking ahead, we project modest growth, with prices likely reaching between ￡1,550 and ￡1,600 per tonne as economic recovery proceeds and industrial activity remains vigorous. Aluminium's wide applicability, from transportation to consumer goods, suggests enduring demand, particularly as governments worldwide endorse greener infrastructure initiatives.
• Brass: Brass demonstrated a steady increase in value, rising from ￡2,800 to ￡3,200 per tonne, driven by consistent demand in plumbing and electrical applications. With ongoing infrastructure projects globally, brass prices are expected to remain stable, potentially climbing to ￡3,250-￡3,300 per tonne. The increased construction activity, especially in developing nations, along with the demand for brass in fittings, fixtures, and industrial machinery, underpins a robust outlook for brass pricing.
• Copper: Copper prices commenced at ￡5,500 per tonne in 2021 and peaked at ￡6,200 in 2023, influenced by supply constraints coupled with substantial demand from the electronics and construction sectors. We anticipate continued upward momentum, with prices potentially reaching ￡6,300-￡6,500 per tonne. The pivotal role of copper in electrical grids, renewable energy systems, and electric vehicles (EVs) enhances its strategic significance in the ongoing energy transition, contributing to sustained demand.
• Lead: Lead prices saw a moderate increase from ￡1,000 to ￡1,150 per tonne, underpinned by stable demand in battery recycling. We expect lead to maintain relative stability, with prices fluctuating between ￡1,150 and ￡1,200 per tonne. Lead's primary application in lead-acid batteries—widely used across various industrial sectors—suggests steady demand, although advancements in battery technologies may impact long-term valuation trajectories.
• Stainless Steel (316): Stainless steel prices trended upwards from ￡900 to ￡1,000 per tonne, in line with its growing use in the automotive and construction sectors. We project minor growth for stainless steel, likely reaching ￡1,050 per tonne as demand from construction initiatives persists. The material's durability and resistance to corrosion make it indispensable for infrastructure projects, reinforcing its consistent demand as nations invest in resilient infrastructure solutions.

Critical Materials

Critical materials, such as aluminium (primary), cobalt, copper (primary), lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, are vital to high-tech industries, with their market dynamics closely linked to technological trends, particularly within the EV and renewable energy sectors.

• Aluminium (Primary): Prices for primary aluminium rose from ￡1,800 to ￡2,100 per tonne, driven by global market trends and the elevated costs of energy-intensive production. We estimate a slight increase to ￡2,150-￡2,200 per tonne, largely influenced by ongoing energy price volatility. The trajectory of aluminium prices will be increasingly impacted by the global push towards decarbonisation, given the significant energy requirements of its production.
• Cobalt: Cobalt prices declined significantly, from ￡40,000 to ￡30,000 per tonne, owing to oversupply and waning demand in battery manufacturing. We anticipate that cobalt prices may face continued downward pressure, potentially stabilising at around ￡29,000-￡30,000 per tonne. The transition towards battery chemistries that reduce cobalt dependence, along with challenges related to ethical sourcing, will likely play pivotal roles in shaping cobalt's future market value.
• Copper (Primary): Copper prices increased from ￡6,500 to ￡7,200 per tonne, driven by large-scale infrastructure projects and persistent supply chain disruptions. We foresee a steady price increase, with estimates ranging from ￡7,300 to ￡7,400 per tonne. The electrification of transportation and the expansion of renewable energy installations are expected to underpin copper's upward trajectory, reinforcing its status as a critical material for developed and developing economies alike.
• Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices surged from ￡15,000 to ￡25,000 per tonne in 2022, subsequently correcting to ￡20,000 in 2023, reflecting the volatility associated with the EV market. We expect lithium carbonate prices to hover around ￡19,500-￡20,500 per tonne, with minor variations influenced by EV production rates. As a crucial component of EV batteries, fluctuations in automotive manufacturing directly impact lithium carbonate pricing.
• Lithium Hydroxide: Lithium hydroxide exhibited a similar pattern, with prices escalating from ￡16,000 to ￡26,000 per tonne in 2022, before correcting to ￡22,000 in 2023. We anticipate that lithium hydroxide prices will remain stable, within a range of ￡21,500-￡22,500 per tonne. Lithium hydroxide's preference in high-energy-density batteries, particularly those used in long-range EVs, makes it a critical component whose market value is closely linked to innovations in battery technology.

Waste Products

Waste products, including mixed scrap metal and end-of-life vehicles, have demonstrated consistent price increases, driven by advancements in recycling technologies and a growing market demand for recycled materials. These products are integral to the circular economy, contributing to sustainable resource management and conservation efforts.

• Mixed Scrap Metal: Prices for mixed scrap metal increased from ￡150 to ￡170 per tonne, driven by rising recycling rates and advancements in material recovery processes. We anticipate a continued gradual increase, with prices reaching ￡175-￡180 per tonne. Improvements in sorting technologies and a growing emphasis on material recovery are poised to drive mixed scrap metal prices upward, further supported by regulatory pressures aimed at reducing industrial carbon footprints.
• End-of-Life Vehicles: Prices for end-of-life vehicles increased from ￡100 to ￡130 per tonne, driven by the metal content and enhanced recycling efficiencies. We expect prices to stabilise, fluctuating slightly around ￡125-￡135 per tonne. As the processing of end-of-life vehicles becomes more sophisticated, the quality and quantity of recoverable materials will improve, adding value to the recycling chain and supporting moderate price growth.

Factors Influencing Price Trends

Several critical factors have shaped these price trends:

• Global Demand and Supply: Economic expansion, particularly in emerging markets, has driven increased demand for metals, while supply chain disruptions have restricted availability. The proliferation of digitalisation, electrification, and infrastructure projects has heightened competition for finite resources, exerting upward pressure on prices.
• Technological Advancements: The rapid growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies has intensified the demand for critical materials such as lithium and cobalt. Concurrently, there has been a significant focus on developing alternative materials and improving recycling efficiencies, which could materially affect market dynamics in the years to come.
• Environmental Regulations: Stricter environmental policies have significantly impacted mining and recycling operations, influencing both material availability and costs. Regulatory measures aimed at reducing carbon emissions have driven investments in recycling infrastructure, consequently affecting the pricing of waste materials as recycled components gain a premium over virgin materials.
• Energy Prices: Energy costs are a substantial component of the production and recycling processes of metals, and fluctuations in energy pricing have a direct impact on the cost structures of these materials. With a global shift towards renewable energy and efforts to minimise fossil fuel reliance, energy prices will continue to play a decisive role in determining the future pricing of metals.

Conclusion

Understanding the historical price trends of waste materials is imperative for stakeholders across the recycling and manufacturing sectors. These trends provide insights into broader economic and technological shifts, underscoring the necessity of strategic planning and adaptability in resource management. Our estimations for the upcoming 3 to 6 months are informed by historical data and current global purchasing trends, offering stakeholders a strategic lens through which to navigate market conditions.

The waste materials market is intrinsically volatile, influenced by a constellation of factors, ranging from geopolitical developments to technological innovations. Stakeholders must remain alert, continuously evaluating the evolving landscape while adopting proactive strategies to mitigate risks and leverage emerging opportunities. The ongoing emphasis on sustainability, circular economy practices, and green energy initiatives will play vital roles in shaping future market dynamics.

AWG continuously monitors these markets to secure the best value for our customers, ensuring they benefit from timely insights and competitive pricing.

These projections are estimates based on historical data and should not be construed as guaranteed outcomes. The waste materials market is inherently subject to volatility, with numerous external factors capable of affecting these values.

Sources:

1. London Metal Exchange (LME) historical pricing data.
2. International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reports.
3. Global Battery Alliance (GBA) market analysis.
4. World Bank commodity price data.
5. International Energy Agency (IEA) reports on critical materials.
6. Industry publications such as Recycling Today and Waste Management World.
7. Bloomberg NEF analysis on electric vehicles and battery materials.
8. Data from Metal Bulletin and Fastmarkets.
9. Reports from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).
10. Economic insights from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
11. Global market reports and industry trends from S&P Global.
12. Reports from the World Steel Association.

Additional Market Data and Insights: Market data and analysis from 2021-2023, supplemented by recent economic reports and industry insights.