The awesome power of an inconsistent mind...

A long print conversation between two of the greatest cranks in Irish sport isn't usually the place I look for philosophical life advice.

But reading Irish journalist (and slayer of Lance Armstrong) Paul Kimmage's interview with Eamon Dunphy in December, I came across some an insight that I wasn't expecting.

If you don't know him, Dunphy is a renowned amateur philosopher masquerading as a clownish sports journalist.

But when questioned about apparent double standards in his journalistic career, Dunphy said something very interesting in response, quoting Patrick Kavanagh.

'Consistencies are the hobgoblin of the mediocre mind. Consistency is an overrated thing, unless you're a liar...certainly with regard to opinions and your responses to people, your responses to life, the vicissitudes of life. Living is learning, and learning, and learning - first about yourself, and second about the world.''

Essentially what Eamon is saying is that it pays to have an inconsistent mind.

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Weakness

This is the opposite to what we're normally told.

In modern political or business life, changing your mind is seen as a sign of weakness. 'Flip flopping' on an issue when you should be iron clad harms your credibility.

This reflects our desire for consistency. Humans are hard wired to avoid the messiness of cognitive dissonance. We try not to spend energy constantly updating our strongly held views. We crave stability of opinion.

Once the mind has accepted something, we’re compelled to fit and contort all the subsequent knowledge we receive into that model of the world, whether it fits or not.

As renowned investor and thinker Charlie Munger says:

'the human mind is a lot like the human egg, and the human egg has a shut-off device. When one sperm gets in, it shuts down so the next one can't get in. The human mind has a big tendency to deal with opinions in the same way.' 

But this isn't real critical thought.

What if it's actually far more powerful to accept that life is not black and white but a deep shade of grey?

We see consistency as a virtue. But what if the opposite is true?

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Across the decades

When you start to understand the value of an inconsistent mind, a sort of Baader-Meinhof type phenomenon occurs. You start seeing the same thing pop up across the decades.

The idea of being open to changing your mind regularly is a theme that's reflected in some of the world's best thinkers.

According to French philosopher Voltaire:

'Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.'

British economist John Maynard Keynes, on receiving criticism for changing his opinion in an economic policy, is quoted as saying:

'When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?'

F. Scott Fitzgerald of 'Great Gatsby' fame wrote that:

'The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.'

In 1970 Alvin Toffler wrote in his seminal paper 'Future Shock' that:

'The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.'

The idea even echoes in Silicon Valley of the 21st century.

Investor Marc Andreessen, as the title of this piece suggests, argues for 'strong opinions, loosely held' - the idea the idea being that its useful to have a solid perspective and intuition, but it's also important to be intellectually humble, actively engage in healthy skepticism, to look for disconfirming evidence and indicators that point in a different direction.

Of course, this is all incredibly hard. It's very, very difficult to avoid the little voice in your head that says 'no, your opinion is right'. It's painful to have your illusions punctured. It's humbling to learn we're not as smart as we thought.

But nobody said it was easy to be a strong critical thinker.

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Rapid destruction

So how does this work in reality?

It's not about constantly doubting yourself or never having confidence.

It's not about being relentlessly 'contrarian'. In fact, it's often the case that supposed 'contrarians' are the worst for falling into the trap of bias, since their focus is always on taking an opposing viewpoint, rather than carefully teasing out the reality of a problem or situation.

It's also not about feeling forced to bombard yourself with cynical barbs from the other side or to listen to conspiracy theories just to create some false sense of balance.

It's about doing the hard work to test your opinions and actively 'steelmanning' potential opposing arguments, while being open to having your mind changed.

It's about reading widely instead of falling into silos and acknowledging that something you truly believe now might seem foolish in the future.

It's about giving yourself a kaleidoscope of mental models with which to view the world, depending on the situation.

To quote Charlie Munger again:

'Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.'

There's an innate pretension to a mind without contradiction because in essence it means you think you're right about everything.

So ask yourself, what strongly held view have you changed your mind about recently?

If you can't think of one, maybe it's time to challenge a few of them...

Postscript - In modern marketing, this concept is particularly important. We're an industry where a growing body of orthodoxy about marketing effectiveness is happily being developed. But we also can't fall into sycophancy and blind ourselves to other views/models/approaches.

For every Byron there's a Charlie Edby, for every Ad Contrarian there's a Julian Cole - a well thought out opposing viewpoint that might just give you a different perspective. Nothing works in every scenario. As Colin Lewis says here, the key to marketing success is being willing to change your mindset.

Shane O'Leary

@shaneoleary1

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