THE AWAKENING OF ASIA

December 25, 2022

It was almost 3 years ago, China brutally closed its borders and confined tens of millions of its inhabitants to their homes. To be honest, this was incomprehensible to us as Westerners. Such an attack on our freedom was inconceivable. The Chinese decision was followed in the wake by almost all Asian countries who chose a strategy of not letting the virus spread, even if at a high price. Little by little, other continents have been forced to close their borders in order to prevent the spread of this epidemic following family, religious or sporting gatherings that are very conducive to contagion.

After a period of astonishment came the hope first that Covid would disappear with the summer period, which was only a flash in the pan since it came back in force in the fall, then that of the arrival of an effective vaccine. Let us recognize that the development, manufacture and use of the two Western vaccines, all in less than a year, have been nothing short of stupendous and highly effective. Thus, in 2021, barriers between countries began to fall, even if it meant closing at the first opportunity, and 2022 saw borders open in most countries except Asians, leading to a fierce desire to displace frustrated populations for nearly two years. The strategy of Western countries has paid off, even if it has been complicated to put in place.

This has not been the case in Asia and particularly in China, Korea or Japan because the vaccines administered have been less effective. Governments had always kept under the elbow the possibility of reconfining their populations, which is what happened. But finally, after 3 very difficult years, Asian countries began to drop barriers to entry and exit from their countries, agreeing to pay the health price for populations with little immunity. And every day we have announcements of new openings of international airlines.

It does not take a great soothsayer to predict a rush of passengers on planes, frustrated as they have been for nearly 3 years. The consequence will be an increase in flights from East Asian countries to Europe and the USA.

It is not clear what state the Chinese carriers are in, but it is likely that they are perfectly capable of putting their fleets back into service. They also have a big advantage over European companies because they have the right to fly over Russia, which is denied to Westerners because of the war between Ukraine and Russia. The difference in flight time for the benefit of Chinese companies is of the order of 2 hours or 4 hours for a rotation which is still a big advantage.

It is likely that operating programs will return to their 2019 level as early as spring 2023. How then will European airports be able to absorb this traffic when they have had so much trouble getting through 2022? Will they have sufficient anticipation to hire and train the staff necessary for their operation? And then we will have to ask ourselves the question of remuneration if we want to attract applications. It is not enough to satisfy only the cabin crew to make fluid an aeronautical operation that is inherently very complex and which requires the participation of ground and runway staff that are absolutely essential and whose remuneration is infinitely lower.

The big maneuvers began in India. Air India the historic carrier is very sick, it is no secret. The arrival of a new company that belongs equally to the Tata group, the founder of Air India before it was nationalized, it should be remembered and Singapore Airlines, reshuffles the cards. It is likely that the two operators will merge in early 2024 under the name Air India. And we are starting to hear about the largest aircraft order placed by a company, in the order of 500 aircraft. ?Remember that the average price of an aircraft is in the order of $100 million. ?Never seen before!

The Asian continent will come back in force very soon. Let us not sulk our pleasure even if it should cause some difficulties.