There is no avoiding a race to the bottom as machines replace humans

An article by Stephen Hawking distributed at the World Economic Forum discussing his predictions about machines and artificial intelligence replacing humans prompts me to consider some of the circumstances by which those processes logically unfold.

The article considers professions related to driving as among the most susceptible to the impact of automation, with a probability of 89%. Mercedes Benz’s promise to put fully autonomous taxis on the roads in just three years, coupled with the some governments’ investments into such projects and the gradual appearance of major players such as Apple or Cadillac seem to be creating an ever-clearer roadmap for autonomous driving.

At the same time, economic models are increasingly defining a race to the bottom in which competition in a deregulated market makes it impossible to generate a profit, which ends up stifling traditional competitors, leaving space only for those who are able to take better advantage of technology.

Voyage, a Californian autonomous taxi startup, says its ultimate aim is to offer completely free transport, possibly financed by advertising. It’s a provocative idea, and resonates with some of the interesting meetings I had in the Daimler offices in Stuttgart some time ago, in which some of the company’s innovation managers said they were working toward free transport, with the idea of ending the practice of private car ownership. The idea of completely free transport systems based on advertising or sponsorship is not surprising in the case of cities such as London, where for only two euros a person has access to unlimited use for twenty-four hours of a bicycle painted with the characteristic red of the Santander bank logo.

In San Francisco, the city’s largest taxi company, Yellow Cab Co-Op, has been sold to a competitor for $810,000, less than a house now costs in the city. The culprits of such a brutal depreciation are not just Uber, Lyft and similar companies operating there, but also several accident claims that resulted in multi-million dollar damages, leaving the company bankrupt. In a scenario in which the accident rate of human drivers becomes a variable capable of sinking a company, autonomous driving, subject to a dramatically lower number of accidents, clearly emerges as the winning alternative.

Is it possible to transition from an activity traditionally carried out by humans, such as driving, to total automation, without it turning into a race to the bottom? No: such a process is totally and absolutely unavoidable, and anybody who thinks otherwise will find themselves on the wrong side of history. The only solution is to anticipate these kinds of processes and opt for systems that help those most affected to find new ways to earn a living, instead of allowing a downward spiral that ends up generating an irresolvable social problem.

(En espa?ol, aquí)