Avoiding the harm of hysteria-fueled haste

Even if you have only a passing interest in automotive news, you’ve seen or heard headlines announcing the doom of electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US. Once thought to be “the next big thing,” the lava-hot sales of EVs in 2023 have turned as cold as a January night in Chicago along the shore of Lake Michigan.

A recent casual conversation with a friend who has owned an EV for about a year was punctuated with an emphatic “they’re terrible” when I mentioned the reporting on EV sales. He told me that he had recently checked the value of his all-electric truck and found that the trade-in value was about 47% of what he paid for it last year.

Ever the bargain hunter, that conversation prompted a few minutes of checking used car listings of EVs. It’s fascinating just how cheap used EVs are. The depreciation cliff is significant. I ran across a 2023 GMC Hummer SUV in Wilmington with about 15,000 miles offered at 73% of its original MSRP or sticker price. There is a 2023 Ford Mustang Mach-E with 8,000 miles on it in South Boston, VA, offered for sale at 58% of its new sticker price. A dealer in New York is offering a 2023 Hyundai Kona EV with 15,000 miles at 52% of its new price.

The current used car values seem to confirm the doom and gloom about EVs. All indications are that the boom has turned into a bust. Or has it?

Dig deeper into the news beyond the siren-sounding headlines, national campaign rhetoric, anecdotes, and emotional reactions, and you find that the reality differs from the perception. Year over year, EV sales are, in fact, up in the US market so far this year. According to data from Cox Automotive, EV sales in the US through the first three quarters of 2024 are up about 9% over the first three quarters of 2023.

I’ll be curious to see how Chevrolet’s introduction of the Equinox EV affects the last quarter of 2024. It has a head start over many new EVs, with significant brand equity in the Equinox nameplate, a 319-mile range, and an entry-level price of just over $43,000.

So, how do these EV market realities in the US inform leaders? While there are many, I want to focus on one significant principle.

Good decisions are based on facts, not feelings. We’ve all heard stories of rare visionary leaders who can peer beyond the horizon and anticipate significant shifts in culture, trends, and markets that others cannot see. Elon Musk is one of those celebrated leaders who seems to see opportunities that others can’t.

If you know me well, you know of my disdain for even the conceptual idea of “luck.” There ain’t no such thing.

Some leaders have taken risks that have returned great rewards. Again, Musk has been celebrated as such because Tesla owned nearly the entire US EV market for several years. Less than three years ago, Tesla sold three-quarters of all the EVs in the US market. In 2024 Q3, that dropped to just under half. It's only reasonable to expect Tesla’s market share to continue eroding as more and more EVs hit the market. Even as the size of the market increases with more buyers willing to make the move to EVs, more consumer choices will result in more sales spread among more brands and models.

We must also remember that Musk paid $44 billion to buy Twitter two years ago. Recently rebranded as “X,” Fidelity Investments valued it at $9.4 billion in August. X losing nearly 80% of its value in less than two years reveals that Musk is a mere mortal.

Regardless of what and who we lead, emotions often cloud decision-making. Oft-repeated tidbits of gossip, viral memes shared millions of times on multiple social media platforms, and perceptions shaped by headlines rather than complete stories can prompt us to make hasty decisions that may have harmful effects in the future.

So, how do we avoid that mistake?

First, we seek wise counsel. Over nearly 30 years of ministry leadership, I have learned to seek counsel from close friends who know me well. I’ll also consult those with more relational distance to benefit from their objectivity.

I’ve also learned to seek out varied views. If everyone points me in the same direction, I’ll try harder to find contrary counsel and diligently explain the scenario in more thorough detail. I want to ensure, as best I can, that responses haven’t been skewed by how I have described the situation.

We would also be wise to step away from the emotion of the moment. Encourage those we lead to do the same. Weigh all the facts. And persistently seek information that genuinely informs rather than merely confirms the emotional tug.

Enjoy your weekend!

The views and opinions expressed in my Thursday Thoughts on Leadership are my own. They do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or policies of the Baptist State Convention of North Carolina or any affiliated churches.