To avoid humanitarian chaos, sub-Saharan Africa must industrialize in less than 20 years

According to the World Bank "by 2030, forecasts indicate that 9 out of 10 people living in extreme poverty will be living in sub-Saharan Africa." Its population will grow from 1 billion to 2 in 2050 and then 4 in 2100. Therefore, the development of agriculture and industry is more urgent than ever.

Ideological criteria for financing  

International institutions most often reserve official development assistance (ODA) funds for investment projects carried out only in a few sectors of activity to the detriment of others. Of course, technological developments in the fields of digital technology, telecommunications and sustainable development are essential and will enable Africa to move forward, but this will not be enough. We can also regret the ideological choices that are often opposed to the creation of a manufacturing industry of consumer goods.

A dogmatic policy that will provide little work seems inappropriate when the challenge is to change the informal economy and to think of economic solutions that provide jobs for a significant portion of the 20 million sub-Saharans who enter the labor market each year.

It is doubtful that Africans affected by extreme poverty, who do not see any improvement in their living conditions, will long believe a communication and policy that advocates industrialization of sub-Saharan Africa while preventing it. Even if this goes against the climate objectives of the IPCC or a green ideology, Africa also has the right to develop and poor Africans must also be able to access progress.

International institutions may have to answer for their blindness

If we do not act, it is to be feared that in the next few years or decades we will witness a famine that will kill hundreds of millions of Africans but that will be impossible to stop because of its extent.

We will then feel sorry for the failure since the 1960s or for the inaction of international institutions in terms of industrialization of sub-Saharan Africa due to climate ideology. What will the major climate institutions or NGOs be able to say to the 2 or 3 billion Africans who will ask them to explain their policies in a few years? Let us hope that the leaders of these institutions now take the full measure of their responsibility and the consequences of their dangerous ideological strategy, which is said to be sustainable but counterproductive in terms of inclusiveness and humanity.

An ineffective and outdated post-colonial model of development assistance (ODA) 

As we explained in the article "Sub-Saharan Africa: Capitalism could succeed where development aid has failed for 60 years", we must gradually break with an inefficient official development assistance (ODA) model that is often considered paternalistic and anachronistic in the age of globalization. It is necessary to favor collaborations and synergies between local and international companies that will generate more dynamics and initiate virtuous economic circles conducive to employment and human progress.

Creating industries and agriculture while preserving the environment  

We have lost a lot of time since the announcement of the World Bank's forecasts for 2018, which can make us fear the worst. So perhaps it would be useful to implement our Program for the Industrialization of Sub-Saharan Africa in less than 20 years.  

In order to avoid a humanitarian disaster of unprecedented proportions, we must promote, alongside the States involved, the creation of industries and agriculture while ensuring the best possible preservation of the environment and the local natural ecosystems of fauna and flora. The marketing of products in Africa, but also new exchanges, will generate an economic boom in the region (Africa Atlantic Axis (AAA).

The informal economy and informal work constitute a central African problem which sclerotizes the development of the continent but the concrete way that we recommend, will facilitate the creation of many direct, indirect and induced jobs better paid.

Without a structured sub-Saharan industrial project, the heavyweights of the economy will not come 

China was able to industrialize in 20 years because the West generously provided its technologies and know-how. As the first large-scale industrialization plan in 60 years, both realistic and voluntary, our concept proposes to convince large international companies to set up stages of their global value chains (GVCs) in sub-Saharan countries. This will require us to organize and synchronize the installation of new ecosystems, local networks of suppliers and subcontractors. Because without a sub-Saharan project such as the one we are carrying out, structured and capable of supporting production transfers or facilitating the establishment of new companies, the heavyweights of the French or global economy, who currently produce most of their products in China, will not come spontaneously to sub-Saharan Africa. We must therefore take up this challenge together.

Francis Journot est consultant et entrepreneur. Il dirige le programme pour l’industrialisation de l’Afrique subsaharienne en moins de 20 ans ou Plan de régionalisation de production Europe Afrique et Africa Atlantic Axis. Il fait de la recherche dans le cadre d’International Convention for a Global Minimum Wage