The Aviation of History
Having read Jop Dingemans post about the Harier this morning, with the realisation that I might once again miss VERTICON (formerly HAI HELI-EXPO) this year, I went off on a train of thought from my temporary bedroom in Lagos, Nigeria.
Where I type this I might seem not more than a mere observer in the International Aviation Industry and its recent development, but armed with the knowledge that the only thing humans learn from history is that we learn amost nothing from history.
I have made a sharp observation— that history does have a way of repeating itself (because we dont seem to learn that well from it). The eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) push today mirrors the early aviation boom, where money, media hype, and grand promises often outpaced real technical progress.
In the early 1900s, well-funded inventors like Samuel Langley had massive financial and institutional backing (dare I mention Smithsonian Institution careful ochestration of the truth) but failed spectacularly.
Meanwhile, the Wright brothers, working with precision, iteration, and self-driven innovation, succeeded with much less funding but far more functional engineering. They were initially ignored or ridiculed by the media but later recognized when their technology proved undeniable.
The current eVTOL industry seems to be following a similar cycle of hype, heavy investment, and impending shakeout:
1. Excessive funding and media buzz – Many startups raise billions based on futuristic renderings and promises of “urban air mobility” but haven’t solved the core issues of battery efficiency, infrastructure, regulation, and profitability.
2. Inevitable failures – Just like early aviation experiments, some of these companies will crash—literally or financially. Their collapse may not be from lack of innovation but from overpromising, underdelivering, and not addressing fundamental aviation economics.
3. The real pioneers will emerge later – As with the Wright brothers, the true revolutionaries might not be the loudest or most well-funded but those refining the technology and making it truly viable.
Yet again I think the current eVTOL hype could be a distraction from:
? More incremental but practical innovations (e.g., hybrid-electric aircraft, improved battery tech, autonomous flight software e.t.c).
? The fact that traditional aviation is still dominant and isn’t going away anytime soon.
? A deeper push for air traffic automation, regulatory shifts, or new monopolies in air travel that people aren’t paying attention to yet.
I am also tempted to think what might be something interesting happening underground amidst the many crashes and near misses that catch and keep the medias attention nothwithstanding that Air Travel has been and still is the safest means of travel.