The Autumn Statement is nearly here, but what will the Chancellor announce?

Tomorrow the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, will outline the Government’s fiscal priorities in the hotly anticipated Autumn Statement. While there has been much speculation (and pre-briefing), any major policy changes have yet to be revealed. Will the Autumn Statement make a May General Election more or less likely? Here’s what to look out for:

To tax or not to tax… is what Jeremy Hunt has probably been asking himself post-shave each morning. Whether, what, who and how to tax remains a closely guarded secret. After the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave Hunt a slight nod, forecasting a higher-than-expected budget, it seems even more likely that tax cuts are imminent – but for who?

Last week was dominated by the possibility of cuts to inheritance tax, but some in the party continue to argue that exploring more immediate options to ease the strain on those at the sharp end of the cost-of-living crisis is more pressing. There’s no doubt that a move like this would be much more rewarding - economically and politically. Maybe we’ll revisit this topic in the Spring?

A more plausible solution, and one that has increased in likelihood since Monday, would be to cut personal taxes (either National Insurance contributions or income tax), which favour lower-income households. While cutting income tax may be the ‘sexier’ option, NI cuts carry lower fiscal risk, are less likely to spark further inflation and cheaper to implement.

Business needs a boom. A further possibility, and one that may come alongside other tax cuts, is a sweetener for businesses. And by sweetener, we mean raising the VAT threshold from ￡85k to ￡90k and extending “full expensing” for businesses. Both seem to have been briefed to journalists over the weekend and are increasingly likely given Rishi’s focus on “supply side” interventions in a speech on Monday.

Old news. In a move that will have no doubt unleashed a glaring scowl from Speaker of the House Lindsay Hoyle, No. 10/11 has already been busy briefing journos on some of the ‘smaller’ interventions. These include:

• Withdrawal of free prescriptions for some long-term benefit claimants
• Financial support for people living near pylons, with a possible reduction of up to ￡1,000 a year off energy bills
• Designation of West Yorkshire as England's third "investment zone" and an extension of the Freeports programme from five to 10 years
• Consideration to unfreeze housing benefit
• Announcement of a ￡3 million fellowship for tech venture capitalists
• Allocation of ￡10 million for veterans' mental health
• Possible allowance of 5% council tax rises in April 2024

#GeneralElectionWhen? With polls at their lowest since Sunak became PM, the government needs something that will stick; something that’s popular within the party, popular with the electorate that makes a significant, positive impact on the UK economy. Yes, inflation is falling, but the cost-of-living crisis continues to plague voters across the country. The economy remains sluggish so the question remains: will Jeremy Hunt manage to excite the economy? And what does that mean for the timing of the next General Election? We’ll soon find out.

Make sure you’re subscribed to Briefly to get our latest insights. Tomorrow, we’ll take a closer look at the Autumn Statement and what it means for the next General Election, whenever it is. ?