Are Autonomous Vehicles Ready for Prime Time?

A mere decade ago, autonomous vehicles were just a pipe-dream born in a world of science fiction and fantasy. Today, companies like Google, Apple, Tesla, BMW, Ford, GM, & Volvo are all joining this generation’s “Space Race”, vying to be first to market with a fully autonomous vehicle. Business Insider estimates that by the year 2020, there will be as many as 10 million self-driving cars on the road.

As the development and testing of autonomous cars - vehicles capable of sensing their environment and navigating without human effort – continues, it’s become abundantly clear that the way we view transportation is about to change in a major way.

However, before the revolution can commence, here are some key issues that will first need to be addressed:

Insurance

Insurance companies are data driven entities. Their actuaries rely on statistics and averages to calculate the financial consequences of a specific risk or group of risks. But what happens when there’s no historical data to work from?  Should an autonomous vehicle get into an accident (as we know they do), who is responsible? How much damage, to both passengers and equipment, should be covered? What premium should insurers charge owners of autonomous vehicles? With the recent announcement by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that the artificial intelligence system piloting Google’s self-driving car is, for all intents and purposes, considered a “driver”, we may be getting closer to having some answers. However, this is a subject that’s going to need to be fully fleshed out before we can truly move into the driver-free era.

The Ethical Dilemma

Imagine this. In the not-to-distant future, you’re the proud owner of a self-driving car. One day, while out driving, through a serious of unfortunate and unavoidable events, the car is headed straight towards a crowd of 10 people who happen to be crossing the road. There is no possibility of stopping in time, but the vehicle can avoid killing those 10 people by veering into a wall. However, this collision would kill you, the owner and occupant of the vehicle. What should the vehicle do? Should the vehicle minimize the loss of life, even if it that means sacrificing the occupants of the vehicle? Should it protect the occupants at all costs? Would you buy a car that could be programmed to kill you? I’ve included a graphic below to illustrate the point. Personally, this is something I’d need to know the answer to before getting behind the wheel.

Driver Safety & Regulation

One of the key selling points in the move towards autonomous vehicles is the notion that these cars will be safer. And I truly believe that they will be. Just look at the advancement in safety tech we’ve seen become commonplace over the past 5 years alone. Automatic braking, lane monitoring, blind spot assist, rear view cameras, the list goes on. All of these features have made driving inherently safer. In fact, a recent study by researchers at the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) found that rear end collisions have decreased 40% in vehicles equipped with automatic emergency braking systems. Couple that with Volvo’s promise of a “death-proof” car by 2020 and it’s obvious that we’re headed in the right direction.

However, there are many safety related questions yet to be answered by regulators:

• Will there be any specific training required in order to operate an autonomous vehicle? 
• Will these cars be able to break the speed limit or will they be governed?
• Will “distracted driving” be allowed?
• Will people who were previously precluded from operating a vehicle because of disability or punishment be allowed to operate an autonomous vehicle?

Unfortunately, only the government can provide the rules of the road, and there are many ways the regulatory process could take the industry off track.

Make no mistake about it, autonomous vehicles are the future. The technology is rapidly improving, I believe that in time, the demand will be there, and the manufacturers certainly see autonomous cars as a large part of their strategy going forward. But as with any substantial change, there are bound to be growing pains. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the coming years. Who knows, in a decade, you may be reading articles like this while your Google car drives you to work.

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About the writer: David Deslauriers is the Business Development Specialist for The Motorlease Corporation, a leader in providing automobile leasing services to small and mid-sized fleets.