The Automotive Industry in 2024: A Quiet Before the Storm?

I wanted to following up on my previous article about how over the last few years, we’ve faced countless challenges—SPAC crashes, economic instability, supply chain disruptions, and more. Innovation has slowed down, and for a while, it seemed like the whole industry was stuck in neutral.

In this article I wanted to focus more on why something has to give, and we will see growth soon!

The Push for Zero-Emission Vehicles

The pressure for zero-emission vehicles is growing from all sides—governments, regulators, and consumers. The European Union and the U.S. have set some aggressive targets for zero-emission vehicles/commercial vehicles by 2030. If you think about where we are now, we’re nowhere near hitting those targets. In fact, in terms of zero-emission trucks, they account for less than 2% of new truck sales today. So, something big has to happen—and soon.

The industry cannot afford to stay stagnant, and I do not predict the OEMs will be the ones to break. They have no choice but to adapt. If OEMs want to survive, they need to make significant changes—whether it’s adopting new powertrain technologies, investing heavily in digitisation, or preparing for the multibillion-dollar overhaul of the infrastructure required to support electric and hydrogen-based vehicles.

Why Zero-Emission Vehicles Are Stuck in Traffic?

So why are we so behind? It’s not as easy as swapping out a diesel engine for a battery. The transition to zero-emission vehicles is complex and affects the entire ecosystem. OEMs are dealing with the enormous task of developing new powertrains, and commercial fleet operators are hesitating to adopt because of the high upfront costs, uncertainty around charging infrastructure, and operational challenges.

Infrastructure is key, and it’s not ready yet. Charging and hydrogen refuelling networks are currently inadequate to meet the needs of a fully electrified or hydrogen-powered vehicle industry. It will take over $30 billion in investments across the U.S. and Europe by 2035 just to build the charging infrastructure required. And we’re not even close to that commitment.

In terms of commercial vehicles, fleet operators have their own concerns. Zero-emission vehicles currently come with a total cost of ownership (TCO) disadvantage compared to their diesel alternative. Even with subsidies, there’s still a gap, especially for long-haul operations where battery range and charging times become serious operational hurdles.

Hitting Regulatory Targets: What Will It Take?

Governments around the world have laid down the law, so to speak. The European Union has some of the toughest emissions regulations, aiming for a 43% reduction in sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks by 2030, and 90% by 2040. The U.S. is a bit slower, but even California is pushing for 30-50% zero-emission trucks by 2030. These targets aren’t suggestions—they come with hefty penalties for non-compliance, so OEMs are already shifting their focus.

But regulatory pressure alone won’t solve the problem. To realise zero-emission vehicles at scale, everyone—from OEMs to fleet owners to infrastructure providers—must act in together. It will require incredible cooperation and an understanding that we’re all in this together.

• OEMs need to build new zero-emission vehicle portfolios and rethink the design of their vehicles, moving away from traditional engine setups and optimising for electric or hydrogen powertrains.
• Supply chains will need a complete overhaul to meet the demands of new components, particularly batteries and fuel cells. New sourcing strategies are necessary, and existing suppliers will need to step up or be replaced by those more capable of supporting zero-emission technologies.
• Fleets will need to reimagine their operations, moving away from the “one-size-fits-all” approach used in diesel fleets. Electrified fleets, for example, require more tailored vehicle choices based on specific use cases, which could mean fleet owners need to diversify their purchases based on geography and driving patterns.
• Infrastructure players must take the lead in building out the necessary public and private charging/refuelling networks, which could take years of investment and development.

It’s a MASSIVE task, and right now, there are still so many roadblocks holding back widespread adoption.

Golden Carrot: New Opportunities in a Zero-Emission Future

While the challenges are substantial, the opportunities that will emerge thanks to zero-emission vehicles is something to take note of.

First, the focus on sustainability is already opening up new markets. Consumers and businesses are demanding greener products and services. As OEMs and fleet operators transition, there’s a chance to capture market share by being among the first movers in the zero-emission space.

New business models will emerge. With the transition to zero-emission trucks, services like Transportation as a Service (TaaS) will gain traction. Fleet operators could lease vehicles instead of owning them outright, while OEMs and infrastructure providers may bundle vehicles with tailored charging solutions, financing, and maintenance packages to make the switch more attractive.

Digital and data-enabled services will play a key role in the future of zero-emission vehicles. The more connected and autonomous vehicles become, the more data they generate, leading to new service-based business models for vehicle tracking, predictive maintenance, and advanced route optimisation. OEMs and technology providers who can leverage this data will gain a competitive edge.

There’s also the aftermarket to consider. Zero-emission vehicles will still need spare parts, maintenance, and repairs. While these vehicles may have fewer moving parts compared to traditional trucks, the complexity of the technology—especially around batteries and fuel cells—means that new revenue streams will appear from servicing and maintaining these components.

Lastly, energy providers will see new profit pools as demand for electricity and hydrogen grows. We’ll see utilities and fuel companies enter the market in ways we haven’t seen before, setting up charging and hydrogen refuelling networks to support the rise of zero-emission vehicles.

Going Forward

In the next few years, I fully expect the flurry of activity we’ve been waiting for. The push for zero-emission vehicles is inevitable, and the automotive industry can’t afford to sit still. OEMs, fleets, infrastructure providers, and governments are all getting ready to meet the challenge, but it won’t be easy.

We’re standing on the edge of a transformation that will change how we build, drive and think about mobility. While there are many challenges, the golden carrot of new opportunities and sustainable growth is too great to ignore.

Are we ready for the change? I believe so, but it’s going to take a collective effort across the industry to make zero-emission vehicles a reality. And once the wheels start turning, I expect them to move fast.