Automation

Is automation really taking over our jobs? Or could this form of technology perhaps be older than we think?

In August, the OECD published a report, which was quickly picked up by the World Economic Forum, warning that 14% of jobs across 32 countries were highly vulnerable to automation. A closer look to this report, gives a much more nuanced view. Its authors state that “…The variance in automatability across countries is large: 33% of all jobs in

Slovakia are highly automatable, while this is only the case with 6% of the jobs in Norway (Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018, p7 )”. They continue their argument with “More generally, jobs in AngloSaxon, Nordic countries and the Netherlands are less automatable than jobs in Eastern European countries, South European countries, Germany, Chile and Japan (Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018, p7 )”. And most interestingly write that “Automation is found to mainly affect jobs in the manufacturing industry and agriculture, although a number of service sectors, such as postal and courier services, land transport and food services are also found to be highly automatable (Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018, p8)”. But what intrigues me most, is that job automation as a concept, is not that new at all.

Not a 21st century thing

The last decade, we saw technology grow at an exponential rate. But robotic process automation is certainly not a 21st century thing. Since it’s opening in 1968, the Victoria line has been operated using automatic train operation (ATO). Drivers, renamed to train operators, only needed to open and close the doors or press the start button for the train to commence driving from one station to the other. Information about safety, speed and signals were received through the rails. Any system failure would lead to an emergency stop. Needing the train operator to take over (being always able to manually override the ATO if necessary).

Automated since 1 June 2014: the Northern Line (Camden Town, January 2018)

So, would it be technologically possible to run fully automatic and even driverless trains on the London Underground? Yes. Are there any ethical or moral objections to do so? Possibly, depending on your political views and economical stances. Without getting too much into those pesky politics, the former London Conservative mayor Boris Johnson was a very large supporter of driverless trains. Unveiling a range of driverless trains in 2014, for service on the Piccadilly line in 2022. In February of this year, however, London’s current Labour Party mayor branded driverless trains as ‘madness.’ Even though the unions where very pleased with this statement, speaking of ‘carnage’ by running unmanned trains on the network. The mayor of London didn’t gave a firm no.

The price of automation

Do automated or unmanned trains equal carnage? No, I don’t think so. Countries like Singapore have one of the largest fully automated underground networks in the world with only some trains having an attendant on board. The metro in Lille, France was the first fully automated, driverless underground system in Europe. In case of an emergency, and no staff present in a train, staff from a control room must coordinate any emergency situation or evacuation.

The elephant in the room is, of course, is that as a direct result of automation, you will need less or no staff to run operations or trains. Even London’s current mayor is well aware of those facts. As we speak, The Circle, District, Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan Automated systems can run trains closer between each other and thus more efficient than humans can. Against lower costs and better customer service. Leading to happy customers. But at what cost? 

One of the biggest dilemmas of automation will be the price we’re (not) willing to pay for it. One of the supermarkets I visit has recently installed self-service counters with only one shop attendant overseeing about ten counters. Still there are two regular supermarket cashiers for customers who don’t want to use them. It seems to me that the human psyche is one of the biggest constraints when it comes to automation. But automation will most definitely see a need for the work force and even customers to adapt or even change. But those who can’t, might find themselves winding their way down on Baker Street.

The iconic Tube roundel at Baker Street Station (January 2018)

Source:

Nedelkoska, L. and G. Quintini (2018), “Automation, skills use and training”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 202, OECD Publishing, Paris.https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/automation-skills-use-and-training_2e2f4eea-en 

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