Automated Driving: Why it will still take a while.

Automated driving and the factors of disruption.

A friend of mine is doing his driver’s license right now but he needs a lot of time doing it. Recently, he told me that if he is not able to get it till November, he will wait for the Google Car anyways. That was an interesting statement. Articles of the first e-hailing platform for automated driving launched in Singapore over people are saved or killed by using the autopilot of a Tesla. The media is reporting about this topic as if it is a near reality and that the releases of fully automated cars are only a matter of several weeks like the upcoming new version of the iPhone.

The reality is different though. We are still several years if not decades away from this scenario. A multitude of reasons make it impossible for automated driving vehicles to be realistic before 2030. This is also backed up by a study of McKinsey that presented the diffusion of automated driving and electrical vehicles to be mainstream.

The reality is different though. We are still several years if not decades away from this scenario. A multitude of reasons make it impossible for automated driving vehicles to be realistic before 2030. This is also backed up by a study of McKinsey that presented the diffusion of automated driving and electrical vehicles to be mainstream. The study suggests that roughly only 15% of the cars are able to drive fully automated.

AUTOMATED DRIVINNG: THE FACTORS OF DISRUPTION

The diffusion is highly dependents on different scenarios and the converse with several entry barriers. The most relevant are summed up here:

Regulatory barriers

Advanced driver assistance System and automated vehicles add a complete new type of traffic participant to the roads. Therefore new interactions between the new entrant and the established participant need to be tested and considered. Hence, we need a new set of rules and laws in order to deal with this technology.

Safe and Reliable Technical Solutions

This will probably cause the biggest delay in the diffusion of automated vehicles. The main scenario for many years will be the conditional driving where the “driver” still needs to be aware of the situation and need to be able to intervene. The condition in cities infrastructure and also the inter-vehicular communication, the awareness of cars of their surroundings and machine learning elements are important factors that are partly still in the fledgling stage. Safety is one of the biggest issues thus. The media effect of the recent accidents made this very clear. Moreover, it is a crucial buying criteria for consumers. Who would want to fall a sleep in a car, that is not secure?

Consumer enthusiasm and Willingness to Buy

This blends in from the last aspect. The consumer’s willingness to buy will become heavily influenced by the safety results and the “sexiness” of the cars. It also comes to efficiencies and costs. Those are all aspects that influence the diffusion of automated vehicles.

Hence, several studies show that the picture of an urban traffic environment that is completely automated is still years away and seems unrealistic to be possible within the next 15 to 20 years. There will be progress in conditional driving and isolated zones but not a fully automated driving experience.

#QOTD: Would you buy an automated vehicle? What are your criteria?