Australian agriculture: The next 20 years

Farm Policy Journal editorial - by Katie McRobert (MBA, GAICD)

Drinking from a firehose. Juggling chainsaws. Herding cats. It’s no surprise these well-worn metaphors are being liberally applied to describe how Australian farmers are feeling about the next two years, let alone the next two decades.

Mandatory requirements to report on the abstract concepts of social responsibility and good governance in addition to the more tangible environmental stewardship are creating industry-wide anxiety. Climate change repercussions continue to negatively impact the arability of key growing regions. Fearmongering about livestock production practices is spread more efficiently than ever via social media algorithms. Heightened geopolitical discord and protectionism jeopardise trade relationships and supply lines. While Australian agriculture is in pretty good shape overall, things feel grim.

So to this grab-bag of metaphors, let’s add the light at the end of a long, dark tunnel. Is that glimmer a burst of sunshine or the headlight of an oncoming freight train?

While this new edition of the Australian Farm Institute 's Farm Policy Journal can’t answer that question definitively, it brings a wealth of evidence-based research and insightful perspectives to the table. Collectively, these articles serve to inform stakeholders across Australian agriculture on the key issues facing the sector in the next 20 years.

Preparing for the future requires ‘embracing the grey’ rather than seeking black-and-white answers.

Over the past 18 months the AFI has been working with CSIRO on its multi-year program of work targeting transformational change to Australia’s farming systems. Ag2050 aims to provide an evidence-based picture of what farming systems could, should and must look like to be profitable, productive and sustainable by the middle of the century. The opening article in this edition, co-authored by the AFI research team and a cohort of leading CSIRO scientists, (including Kade Denton , Justin Maroccia , Rose Roche , Frank Sperling & more) reflects on the evolution of and outlook for Australian agriculture at a nexus of significant uncertainty.

Preparing for the future requires ‘embracing the grey’ rather than seeking black-and-white answers. By acknowledging and accepting the uncertainties, understanding historic and current contexts and exploring diverse potential future outcomes, we can learn how to build the agile agricultural systems which will be necessary in the coming decades. This first article contends that looking with an open mind towards multiple futures for 2050 can help orient stakeholders and decision-makers to aligned goals for a thriving agriculture sector at a time of profound change.

The second article examines a contentious concept: creating food outside traditional agricultural production systems. In an era where the environmental footprint of farm practices is under intense scrutiny, it is vital to understand not only the risks but also the opportunities presented by the potential for synthesised food.

Futuristic as it may sound, the idea of non-agricultural food is not novel. For example, during the Second World War German chemists synthesised an unappetising but consumable coal-based margarine to address food shortages. In the article ‘Food without agriculture’ a consortium of authors (primarily from North American academia) demonstrate that substantial GHG emissions and land use could be avoided per kilocalorie of dietary fats synthesised chemically.

Synthetic food production could potentially mitigate the environmental burdens of agriculture – but at what cost?

However, several significant caveats apply to the conclusions. These include the limitations of previously published estimates of the carbon and land intensity of agricultural and industrial processes and products, and the unquantified socioeconomic impacts of such a profound shift in food production. In addition, substantial barriers hinder the large-scale synthesis of foods for human consumption. Price is just one – especially while the environmental impacts of agriculture are externalised, prices for high-purity synthetic fats may never be lower than the prices of the cheapest agricultural oils.

More broadly, the concept of non-agricultural food invites reflection of humanity’s relationship with nature as a resource. We currently use the majority of the planet’s habitable land and drinkable water to grow food. Synthetic food production could potentially mitigate the environmental burdens of agriculture – but at what cost?

The subsequent article picks up on the themes of opportunity and risk, encouraging readers to consider the strategic benefits of increased transparency in sustainability reporting for agriculture. Matthew Coulton notes that conversations about the impacts on agriculture of mandatory reporting (introduced in September 2024) have focused on the reporting burden being pushed down the supply chain. This has drawn focus away from the benefits for businesses in assessing the opportunities and risks associated with climate change impacts.

Coulton’s expectations for Australia agriculture in 20 years’ time are for an industry which will be 100% transparent, with technology-enabled visibility for consumers across every part of the supply chain that feeds and clothes them. Australia will also still have the most productive agricultural systems in the least accommodating climate by 2045, but every farm business decision will be underpinned by highly automated, data-rich, integrated risk management processes.

When it comes to compliance activities, Coulton argues, businesses look to maximise efficiency and reduce costs. This essay advocates the benefits of agricultural businesses incorporating deliberate climate risk management into their business strategy – and highlights opportunities to do so.

This data-rich future will require thoughtful and considered approaches to data management, which is where the next article picks up. Andrew Skinner asserts that the future of Australian agriculture hinges on its ability to fully realise the potential of its data.

Skinner’s essay examines data management strategies, policy opportunities and some practical steps needed to evolve the industry beyond its current fragmented attempts to harness the benefits of data. Australian agriculture, he argues, simply cannot afford to continue with incremental adjustments but must undertake a radical shift in how data is managed, used, and valued. Data governance, interoperability, infrastructure, skills and collaboration all need to be proactively strengthened. To implement a national data strategy for agricultural benefit, all stakeholders must be willing to challenge the status quo, embrace new ways of working, and look beyond the nominal borders of the industry.

We need to ‘drop the handbrake’ and actualise the potential of ag data in the next two decades.

Skinner notes that the Australian agricultural sector has been on the brink of a data-driven transformation driven by data for the past 20 years but has thus far failed to fully realise this potential. We need to ‘drop the handbrake’ and actualise this latent potential in the next two decades. There is much more at stake, he writes, than the business of farming.

The fifth article explores the latest developments, obstacles, and future pathways for climate-smart agriculture (CSA). As other articles in this edition attest, CSA is a BAU mindset for Australian farmers. However, there has been limited critical examination of the advances made in CSA within emerging and developed nations. This review, produced by academics from Bangladesh and Malaysia, provides valuable context on the state of CSA adoption around the globe, from Pakistan and Zambia to California and Switzerland.

The authors highlight policy and legislative frameworks which can enable CSA, as well as potential technological applications. Areas within which policy could facilitate CSA include market-based mechanisms (e.g. subsidised loans and compensation for environmental services) and investment in technology and research initiatives. Integrating meteorological services and internet technologies, raising the bar for agricultural services, and making it easier to implement agricultural weather index-based insurance are important next steps, with the ultimate goal of strengthening nutrition security and environmental sustainability. Realising CSA will also require innovative ?nancing structures that link climate and agricultural funding from the public and private sectors.

Understanding this situational perspective is key for Australia as we look to retain our comparative advantages in a climate-constrained global system.

To complement these essays, we have invited key stakeholders to provide their unique perspectives on the next 20 years. In the first perspective piece, ABARES Executive Director Jared Greenville sets a challenge to the industry: in this time of unprecedented flux, how can Australian agriculture be competitively sustainable?

Land use change and the role that policy plays will be critical to managing the transition to a decarbonised economy.

Australian agriculture continues to grow despite obstacles and setbacks, with the gross value of production setting consecutive records in the past three years. Much of the industry’s success derives from its ability to respond to consumer and market conditions, enabled by both domestic and trade policy approaches taken over past decades. However, Greenville notes, as sustainability concerns heighten the rules that govern trade, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have been increasing. These NTMs can promote trade by building trust or create barriers through excessive compliance costs. NTMs represent a multi-billion dollar burden on Australian agricultural exports over time, and warrant concerted and strong efforts to combat their rise.

In addition, Greenville highlights a topic of increasing focus for the AFI’s research agenda as a key concern: land use change. Research around land use change and the role that policy plays will be critical to managing the transition to a decarbonised economy, he writes. Creating opportunities for enterprise mix changes has the potential to deliver greater resilience for producers, continue Australia’s strong contribution to national and global food security, and deliver on necessary emissions reductions.

NSW Farmers representative Stephen Mudd echoes themes clearly evident in the AFI’s recent publications. Change is an ever-present force for agriculture, he writes, and should not be avoided or ignored. Australian farmers lead the world in innovation, with the notoriously tough physical and economic environment forcing generations to get good at doing more with less. As we face down a future driven by climate change, geopolitical shifts, and evolving consumer demands, this innate inventiveness must be brought to bear.

Agriculture will, by necessity, continually evolve to remain viable and competitive – provided that the supporting environment of policies which enable flexibility, support risk management, and encourage long-term investment is firmly in place. This requires bringing more Australians ‘on board’ with farming, Mudd concludes, to understand the true value of the industry that literally feeds and clothes us.

Grain Growers Limited Policy Manager Annabel Mactier takes on the perennial issue of infrastructure as a key enabler for advancing Australian agriculture in the next 20 years. The grain freight supply chain stands at a crossroads, Mactier writes. The coming decades present an unparalleled opportunity to adopt transformative technologies – such as artificial intelligence (AI), automation, and low-carbon liquid fuels – which could address long-standing industry challenges such as driver shortages, safety risks, and carbon emissions. However, realising this opportunity requires decisive action from government and industry. Collaborative efforts to reform regulation, modernise infrastructure, and support the development of low-carbon fuel solutions are essential to ensuring that the grain freight supply chain evolves to meet the needs of the future.

Those who persist in the next two decades will be those who embrace change.

Capping off this outstanding edition of the Farm Policy Journal, General Manager Rural Futures for AgriFutures Australia Simon Vincent succinctly articulates the period of transformational shifts Australian agriculture is facing. Artificial intelligence will shape the future. The changing climate will test our resilience. Biosecurity risks will remain ever-present. Diverse export markets will be pivotal amid global uncertainty. Those who persist in the next two decades, he contends, will be those who embrace change.

Emerging technologies, evolving environmental and societal pressures, and the reshaping of global markets will influence how Australia produces, markets and consumes its agricultural products. The reimagined future will call into question what it means to be a ‘primary producer’ – the deep-rooted identity of the thousands who work on the land. The farmers of tomorrow will employ skills which today’s farmers don’t yet know they need. Staying ahead of trends and proactively addressing challenges will be key. Likewise, diversification and innovation at the farm level is an important buttress against adverse events.

Persistence has long been a hallmark of the Australians who produce food and fibre for the world, Vincent notes, and the coming decades will require stamina in spades. But they’ll also require transformative, sometimes uncomfortable, change – and herein lies the challenge to which Australian agriculture must rise.

The future is a foreign country: they will do things differently there.

After opening this foreword with metaphors, let me close on an aphorism. The future is a foreign country: they will do things differently there.

We cannot plan to keep working, growing, trading and managing in the agricultural systems of 2045 with the same methods and expectations we apply today. And we are not talking about a distant future in which others will take on the problems we were unable to solve. The next 20 years are in our hands.

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