August 2022 Investment Commentary
Written by Ayako Yoshioka, CFA
Executive Summary
A better-than-feared earnings season, combined with a market narrative where inflation may have peaked and future interest rate hikes may not be as large, provided some relief to markets. However, with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, questions still linger about the timing of a potential recession. Despite the uncertain backdrop in the near term, we continue to focus on investments over a longer time horizon.
What Piqued our Interest
After the worst six-month start to a year since 1970, the S&P 500 Index climbed 9.2% in July, despite the hot headline number from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that showed inflation at 9.1%. The market seemed to focus on the potential that inflation may have reached a peak and start to decelerate in magnitude in the coming months. This narrative was further supported by the University of Michigan’s longer-term inflation expectations survey, which dropped from 3.1% to 2.8%, helped by the drop in gasoline prices.
Market Recap
During earnings season, we saw that higher prices led to better-than-expected revenues for many companies. Inflation’s impact on corporate profits were also better than feared, as companies protected their margins. Growth stocks performed better in July versus their Value peers, but Value remains well ahead of Growth for the year. Despite the earnings relief and concurrent market rally, the outlook for earnings in coming quarters...