AUG 2024 THE WEAVE – THE REAL STARTUP COMMUNITY FIGHTING FOUNDER BURNOUT AND KEEPING DREAMS ALIVE
“Optimism is the force that enables you to create a new reality… it is a necessary input to meeting a new? challenge.” Christiana Figueres & Tom Rivett-Carnac
CATCH THE WAVE
A HORIZON SCAN – WHERE RISK AND OPPORTUNITIES RESIDE
People, Planet, Pint: Thank you to all who attended. We will announce the next one shortly.
We came, we saw, and we talked about sustainability, but more than that, we got a general view of our future opportunities to deliver something practical for the region. The meetup was full of optimism and a willingness to share – we all agreed that just simply talking about was not enough – so let’s see where this takes us.
We thank Bailey Bryan ,? Jonny Ruffell , Andrew Wright , Joey Stephens , Matt Miller , Michael Wadham and Madeleine Last for coming along. We are excited to see you at the next event. People Planet Pint is a global network of sustainability activists eager to come together and respond to a collective call to action to become' stubborn optimists’. ?
If you want to join the community and share in our positivity, then click this link now!
The Weave welcomes Catherine Damisa to our leadership team.
We met Catherine on an iTeams challenge and were blown away by her enthusiasm for business and belief in what The Weave could do. She is skilled in project, product, and operations management and excels at turning strategy into actionable outcomes focused on the customer. As a Chartered Accountant with a strong finance background, she has led numerous successful projects and product innovations within the fintech sector. We are delighted to have her join us – and if we can manage to get the FinTech Hack sorted – she will be an excellent lead.
THE TED LASSO APPRECIATION CORNER
#7 The Wisdom of Ted Lasso – just for you!
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC
“It’s never too late to start all over again.”
You have to believe that – I am 63 years of age as I write this, yet I have not lost any passion for delivering The Weave. I was in a discussion with someone the other day talking about business development, and all I could think about was how we could move the needle by working closer together. Ted is younger than me, but this advice is as relevant to a person in their late thirties as it is for someone in their mid-sixties. You can down tools if you like, but we have one chance to move that needle, so don’t waste it.
If you haven’t seen Ted in action, then watch Apple TV and download an inspiring series that underpins servant leadership as a philosophy.
On that note, it is with sadness that we learn of Susan Wojcicki's death today, August 12th. She was an Internet Pioneer at Google and took YouTube to the forefront of digital entertainment—she died at 56. Starting over was too late for her, but having done so much in such a short period, we can only admire her achievements.
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TRENDS
A monthly horizon scan as we look around at what’s being talked about Nationally and Globally. We identify potential threats and opportunities that should appear on all our radars.
Headline of the Month
By Helen Coffey of the Independent 12.08.2024?
I chuckled as I read this in temperatures of 34°C because it crossed my mind that I was that proverbial British wimp who melts in anything about 21°C. I have only ever been skiing once; a blood wagon return from the slopes discouraged me from doing it again, but I remember that even though it was cold (minus something), I never really felt cold, which I put down for two reasons. First, we were prepared for it; there is no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing. Second, it was dry cold instead of cold and damp, which is the normal cocktail of the UK climate. Two areas are equally important in rising temperatures. Dry heat allows our bodies to sweat and cool naturally; humid heat decreases the effectiveness of sweat. Secondly, clothing in the UK is still less accommodating to heat than in high-temperature environments. I long for the time when working practices accommodate 5 AM starts, long siestas leading to closing in the mid-afternoon and extended evening work encouraging social connections at the end of the day. Could this be a recipe for reduced heart attacks and extended life expectancy? When Josh Ellis, a social media commentator and an American who has lived in Texas and Las Vegas, suggested that the British are not wimps, I thought I would read on.
The short article is observational, taking the common stereotype of the British as a nation entirely preoccupied with the weather and then reflecting on this pastime to consider if this is a deeply ingrained part of our national character. Complaining about the weather and observing the weather is portrayed as almost a national pastime, reflecting a sense of dissatisfaction that persists regardless of the actual conditions we experience. This aligns with the broader perception of British stoicism and a somewhat humorous approach to adversity—whether it's rain, snow, or sun, the British will always find something to moan about.
However, some serious issues need to be considered—not least climate change and changing social habits that could lead to various modifications and upgrades in planning laws, etc.?
Climate Change and Its Implications
Climate change is subtly woven into the piece's narrative, suggesting that rising global temperatures will force the UK to reconsider its approach to building design and urban planning. The article implies that the UK, like many other parts of the world, is unprepared for the increasing frequency of heat waves. The traditional British architecture, with its emphasis on insulation to keep heat in, is increasingly ill-suited to the hotter summers that are becoming more common.
As climate change progresses, there will likely be a growing demand for buildings that can maintain comfortable temperatures without excessive energy consumption. This may include innovations like better ventilation, reflective materials, and more widespread adoption of air conditioning—although the latter is also energy-intensive and could exacerbate climate issues if not managed carefully.
The Role of Data and AI in Architectural Innovation
I have just finished reading Fusion Strategy by Govindarajan and Venkatraman – which looks at how the industrial product space, which includes buildings, is starting to be reinvented through the interweaving of constant in-use-data production and AI. It’s a fascinating read that is relevant to the future of industrial products, including building design. The article hints at the potential for data and AI to play a crucial role in modernising building design to cope with climate change. AI can help model and predict temperature changes, optimise energy use, and even design more resilient buildings to temperature extremes. For instance, AI could analyse vast amounts of weather data to inform better architectural practices, such as optimal window placement, insulation materials, or shading devices that reduce the need for artificial cooling. Fusion AI could do this for every building, creating a deluge of combined data that could change the role of facilities management.
Smart buildings automatically adjust their heating, cooling, and lighting systems in response to real-time weather conditions, leading to more sustainable energy use and greater comfort for occupants. One building connected to a network of other buildings is forewarning them of oncoming weather changes to prepare the building proactively.
The urbanisation of the UK is placing increased pressure on architects to incorporate better heat exchange concepts into their buildings. In 2022, the Government upgraded planning laws to ensure that airflow for apartments and flats was considered to accommodate better heat management. As the UK gets hotter, additional planning will be responsive and offer new opportunities. We only resist the notion of the new because we are anchored to the past and see an imagined space in today's context. If we lift the anchors, our businesses will start repositioning themselves in the what-if world of opportunities.?
Could this stop the process of urbanisation? If so, how does the dispersion of the populace impact the marketing and distribution models that you depend on today?
Join the Weave and join the conversation.?
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POLITICAL TRENDS – July/August 2024
UK Politics: The appalling murder of the three children on the 29th of July led to violence, initially articulated as a protest but eventually ending up as mob rule. Fueled by misinformation and accommodated by social media, the unrest spread like wildfire, stoked by hot air. It is far from a fitting way to mark the loss of three innocent lives. There was a real mix of ambiguity in the reporting, with images of looting (Croc shoes carried away from smashed-up stores) and middle-aged men hurling racist abuse and beating isolated individuals based on the colour of their skin, to the statesmen like politicians expressing concern but smiling under their grimace. Why have they stopped? It is too early, and the evidence is unclear whether riots will return, especially if another event raises the temperature. However, according to the Economist leader, ‘How to respond to the riots on Britain’s streets’ , these riots have highlighted three major concerns.
The first is the state of the British criminal justice system, as observed by:
1.???? A lack of general distrust in policing
2.???? The judicial system is jammed, and like a broken photocopier, the paper feed continues to run.
3.???? ?Prisons – stacked to the gills and unable to accommodate the numbers, is no longer fit for purpose
The second concern is the power of social media to misinform, agitate and stoke the fires, especially when the information comes from those who hold the power. The third concern is that we cannot move forward in this country with a moderate debate on how the UK is managed. Immigration is not going away, whether people arrive here uninvited and on boats (as the Vikings did) or whether we manage their arrival through legitimate means. We cannot engage in the management process because the extremes control the narrative, and the populist voices are leaning into the deep concerns of many communities.
The article, which is a well-informed piece, calls for the unequivocal “condemnation of violence” from everyone involved, all sides. They see this as the starting point – certainly, it is the majority view, and very few people in Britain want to see a rerun of the last month. What we do need, though, is an appreciation of what could work and what needs to happen to make it work. Words are not enough – there is a need for action from all communities to create a more representative voice.
The legacy of these riots will not be over in a couple of weeks; the divisions run deep, and sentiments are hard to change. We are a tolerant nation; the UK is still an appealing destination for many to rebuild their lives. Can that continue? Should it continue, and if it does not, what are the outcomes we face? Public opinion supports the crackdown on violence, but many of those people would still like immigration to be much lower. The words of Voltaire have a significance we should not ignore:
“Toleration has never been the cause of civil war; while, on the contrary, persecution has covered the earth with blood and carnage.”
The UK hosted a European conference where defence was on the agenda. It was no fluke that Blenheim Palace, the birthplace of Prime Minister Winston Churchill, was the venue. It was a solemn reminder that the UK and Europe, on defence at least, need to be closely aligned.
US Politics: A lot can happen in a month. In the last Catch the Wave, we were expanding on our analysis, saying Biden needs to reconsider his position if the Democrats are to salvage their electoral prospects. On the 21st of July, Biden did just that. Less than a month later, Vice-President Kamala Harris accepted the nomination to run against Trump, and the tables were upturned. The Republican's biggest weapon, age and cognitive weakness, has just been turned on themselves. There are still three months to go, and the honeymoon may not run the course, but we have a contest between age and relative youth. Trump, who continues to defy the odds, could do it again, but Harris, for now, leads him in the national polls, turning Biden’s deficit into a net gain. What is more impressive is the swing in marginal swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin states.
Trump has just been interviewed by long-standing supporter and X owner Musk. In a rambling talk, he repeats much of the usual vitriol and talks about the attempted assassination. The real star of the show was Trump’s newly delivered lisp. The polls will continue to swing around – and all honeymoons eventually run their course, but at least we can debate the day's issues.
European Politics: The Olympics covered much of the newspapers in Europe for at least 16 days they were running. Paris hosted in style, and these ‘sustainability’ games met their ambitions and equalled the hype. At times, they were a challenging watch; at others, they were pure inspiration and cutting-edge innovation. They were though set against a backdrop of European conflict, concerns over the direction of the Ukraine war, and a reminder that boats carrying migrants and refugees were a real-world problem to face. In the middle of the Olympic headlines, we witnessed a reminder of the cold war of the past as a prisoner exchange took place between Russia and various countries, including the US, Norway, Germany, Poland and Slovenia. The Ukraine war took an unexpected turn as special forces entered Russia, and a highly risky tactical manoeuvre caught Putin’s generals off guard.
This increases tensions, accentuates concerns over NATO's future, and leaves Europe debating exactly how it can defend itself. Nuclear proliferation could be on the cards; increased defence expenditures would be a common drain on investment strategies, leaving national purse strings tightly drawn when the cost of living and environmental needs are rising. Europe remains hugely divided, with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán playing the bad boy and obstructing EU foreign policy. In an unprecedented move, the EU may well boycott the Hungarian Foreign Affairs summit planned for next month.
Global Politics – What happens when an incumbent government decides to shun the results of the elections?
Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, an authoritarian leader, chose to announce the election results, stating he had won with 51.21% of votes, compared with 44.2% for his rival Edmundo González. The problem seems to be that the opposition kept the tallies of voting and constructed a safe space to store them. This tally indicates that the opposition won 80% of the vote and won. There is a standoff where the judiciary calls for criminal prosecutions against the opposition, and the current president ignores the results. Democracy only ever works when there is a peaceful transference of power. The implications are likely to be a new surge in migration from Venezuela to the US, politically sensitive at the best of times, more so now. Any sanctions would hit oil exports, and it is clear that Brazil and other South American countries are walking a tightrope of diplomacy to counteract what could end up being a civil war on their doorsteps.
SOCIAL TRENDS – Picking up the news from July and August
It’s August, and we are infatuated with travel. As our regular readers will attest, we spend much time researching new trends and interesting developments in this area. Despite our desire to be environmentally sound, we are also adventurously inclined, which can sometimes make us feel guilty. We round the circle by looking for trends that align with our ecological credentials. I was, therefore, delighted when the wonderful people at Sifted created a white paper, ‘Above the Clouds, The Future of Flying’ in conjunction with Groupe ADP , the Paris airport operator.
The document focuses on how technology is reshaping the future of air travel, emphasising making aviation greener, safer, and more efficient. It discusses innovative ways airports and aeroplanes are being rethought to reduce emissions, improve customer experiences, and incorporate cutting-edge technologies.
The document explores sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen power, AI-powered operations, biometric technologies, smart infrastructure, and the integration of new technologies to enhance the passenger experience and streamline airport operations. It also delves into the prospects of air taxis, the importance of sustainability, the role of startups and innovative technologies in revolutionising airports, and the overall transformation of the aviation industry towards a more environmentally friendly and passenger-centric approach. Additionally, it highlights the efforts of Groupe ADP in addressing challenges such as decarbonisation, operational excellence, and passenger experience, as well as showcasing innovations in the industry, along with the role of airports and commitment to sustainability and environmental initiatives within the aviation industry.
Opportunities
·?????? Sustainable Aviation: Developing and promoting sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to reduce carbon emissions. Converting existing engines to new fuels could open up fresh opportunities in the engineering field.
·?????? Innovative Technologies: Meeting the demand for AI, biometrics, and smart infrastructure to enhance airport operations. Continuous data and AI are used to engage with the customer experience and exploit untapped capacity.
·?????? EVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing) and Air Taxis: Exploring opportunities in electric aircraft for urban air mobility. The future of logistics is in the sky and not on the roads, the future of commuting will be above the clouds and not below them.?
·?????? Customer Experience Enhancement: Improving passenger experience with personalised services and streamlined processes. Seeing passenger experience as a continuous process and not once they arrive at an airport.
·?????? Data-driven Decision Making: Utilising data analytics and AI for operational optimisation. Dynamic pricing and optimising capacity to increase load factors and lower prices.
·?????? Environmental Sustainability: Investing in renewable energy sources and sustainable operations. Constantly focused on circularity in fuels to remove dependency on carbon fuels and instead increase engagement with renewables.
·?????? Security and Safety: Addressing security challenges and ensuring passenger safety through advanced technologies.
·?????? Operational Excellence: Enhancing ground handling and aircraft operations efficiency, including extended air time to accentuate CO2 removal during flying times.
·?????? Partnerships and Collaborations: Collaborating with industry players and technology providers for innovation.
·?????? Global Expansion: Exploring opportunities for expanding businesses in new markets. Linking data across the waters to enhance safety and improve the experience overall.
·?????? Digital Transformation: Embracing digital technologies to meet evolving traveller needs.?
Is there something your business could respond to? The future of air travel is regenerative, and we need to respond to this challenge.
We would love to hear your thoughts and share them with the community.
Technology Trends 2024
The McKinsey Tech research report came out this month – looking at established and future trends for 2024. The synopsis of the 100-page report indicates that AI is in for a period of consolidation as the business models readjust to the advances in technology. The key trends discussed in the McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook encompass a wide range of advancements and challenges in various fields, including:
·?????? Future of Bioengineering
·?????? Future of Space Technologies
·?????? Electrification and Renewables
·?????? Climate Technologies Beyond Electrification and Renewables
·?????? Generative AI and Applied AI
·?????? Industrializing Machine Learning
·?????? Expansion of Corporate Climate Commitments
·?????? Growth in Agriculture Technology (AgTech)
·?????? Public Sector Support for Carbon Management
·?????? Increased Interest in Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS)
·?????? Immersive-Reality Technologies
·?????? Cloud and Edge Computing
·?????? Quantum Technologies
·?????? Next-generation Software Development
·?????? Digital Trust and Cybersecurity
·?????? Advanced Connectivity
·?????? Future of Robotics
·?????? Future of Mobility?
These trends highlight the significant developments and innovations shaping the technological landscape and driving advancements in various industries.
But how could a small business engage with each sector and generate differing value propositions??
Engaging in these cutting-edge sectors can be transformative for small businesses, especially within industries like Hospitality, Retail, Travel and Tourism, Education, and Health and Wellness.
Opportunities
Here's a breakdown of how such businesses can drive innovation in these sectors through relevant examples:
?1. Future of Bioengineering
-??????????? Health and Wellness: A small business in health and wellness could partner with bioengineering firms to create personalised wellness programs based on genetic testing. Offering diet plans or supplements tailored to individual genetic profiles can provide a highly customised customer experience.
?2. Future of Space Technologies
-??????????? Travel and Tourism: A small business could collaborate with space tourism companies to offer exclusive travel packages that include suborbital flights or zero-gravity experiences. These could be bundled with luxury hospitality services, making space tourism more accessible to a broader market.
?3. Electrification and Renewables
-??????????? Hospitality: Hotels and resorts can implement advanced renewable energy systems like solar or wind power to run their operations. They could market themselves as fully sustainable, appealing to eco-conscious travellers and setting a standard for green hospitality.
?4. Climate Technologies Beyond Electrification and Renewables
-??????????? Retail: To reduce environmental impact, a retail company could adopt climate-positive packaging solutions, like carbon-neutral or carbon-negative materials. Small businesses could collaborate with startups focusing on biodegradable or regenerative packaging technologies.
?5. Generative AI and Applied AI
-??????????? Education: A small education-focused business can use generative AI to create customised learning experiences. AI-driven tools could generate personalised lesson plans, interactive quizzes, and even virtual tutors that adapt to each student's learning style.
?6. Industrializing Machine Learning
-??????????? Retail: Retailers can implement machine learning to optimise inventory management, predict consumer behaviour, and personalise marketing efforts. For instance, a small boutique could use ML algorithms to anticipate fashion trends and manage stock accordingly.
?7. Expansion of Corporate Climate Commitments
-??????????? Hospitality: Small hotels or restaurants can lead by example, making bold climate commitments, such as becoming carbon neutral or supporting reforestation projects. These efforts can be highlighted in marketing to attract eco-conscious consumers.
?8. Growth in Agriculture Technology (AgTech)
-??????????? Health and Wellness: A wellness brand could partner with AgTech companies to source organic, sustainably-grown ingredients for their products. Vertical farming or precision agriculture can ensure a consistent supply of high-quality, fresh produce.
?9. Public Sector Support for Carbon Management
-??????????? Education: Schools and universities could leverage public sector grants or programs aimed at carbon management to create sustainability-focused curricula or campus initiatives, making education a key player in promoting environmental stewardship.
?10. Increased Interest in Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS)
-??????????? Travel and Tourism: A travel company could invest in or promote tours to destinations actively using carbon capture technologies, educating tourists about climate action. They could also implement carbon offset programs where travellers can offset their trip’s emissions.
?11. Immersive-Reality Technologies
-??????????? Hospitality: Hotels and resorts could use virtual or augmented reality to offer virtual tours of their properties or destinations. This technology can enhance the booking experience and help guests visualise their stay before they arrive.
?12. Cloud and Edge Computing
-??????????? Education: Educational institutions or startups could use cloud and edge computing to offer remote and distributed learning experiences. This would enable real-time access to resources, interactive classes, and collaboration from anywhere worldwide.
?13. Quantum Technologies
-??????????? Health and Wellness: Quantum computing could revolutionise drug discovery and medical research. A small health-focused business could collaborate with quantum tech startups to develop new wellness products or treatment methods based on quantum-enhanced simulations.
?14. Next-generation Software Development
-??????????? Retail: Retail businesses can innovate using next-gen software development tools to create highly customised e-commerce platforms or apps that provide a seamless, personalised shopping experience.
?15. Digital Trust and Cybersecurity
-??????????? Education: Schools and educational platforms can prioritise digital trust by implementing cutting-edge cybersecurity measures. This ensures the safety of student data and builds trust among users, which is crucial in the digital age.
?16. Advanced Connectivity
-??????????? Travel and Tourism: Small travel agencies can utilise advanced connectivity technologies, like 5G, to provide real-time travel updates, augmented reality city guides, and seamless booking experiences, enhancing the overall travel experience.
?17. Future of Robotics
-??????????? Hospitality: A small hotel chain could implement robotic concierges or room service robots to improve service efficiency and create a unique, modern guest experience.
?18. Future of Mobility
-??????????? Travel and Tourism: Small travel companies could offer innovative mobility solutions, like electric vehicle (EV) rentals or partnerships with autonomous vehicle services, making sustainable and futuristic transportation options a part of the travel package.
These examples show how small businesses can leverage emerging technologies to innovate within their industries, create new value propositions, and stay ahead of the competition.
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Is Blockchain making a comeback?
Once the darling of the tech chatlines and after a period of scepticism and market downturn, blockchain is regaining momentum, driven by several factors:
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?1. Maturing Use Cases
-??????????? Blockchain is increasingly being adopted in various industries beyond cryptocurrency. These include supply chain management, healthcare, finance, gaming, real estate, and more. Companies are exploring blockchain to ensure transparency, security, and efficiency in processes like tracking goods, verifying credentials, and streamlining payments.
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?2. Enterprise Adoption
-??????????? Major companies, including IBM, Microsoft, and Amazon, are integrating blockchain into their service offerings. They are providing blockchain as a service (BaaS) platforms, making it easier for other businesses to adopt blockchain solutions without building from scratch.
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?3. Decentralised Finance (DeFi) and Web3
-??????????? The rise of decentralised finance (DeFi) and Web3 has spurred renewed interest in blockchain. DeFi platforms allow users to access financial services like lending, borrowing, and trading without intermediaries. Web3, the next generation of the internet, leverages blockchain to give users control over their data and digital identities.
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?4. Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)
-??????????? The explosion of NFTs, digital assets representing ownership of unique items (e.g., digital art, music, collectables), has brought blockchain back into the mainstream conversation. The NFT market surged in 2021 and continues evolving with new applications in gaming, entertainment, and beyond.
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?5. Government and Regulatory Interest
-??????????? Governments and regulatory bodies are paying closer attention to blockchain technology. Some governments are exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that leverage blockchain, while others are creating regulatory frameworks to address issues like security and compliance, giving blockchain more legitimacy.
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?6. Environmental and Efficiency Improvements
-??????????? In response to concerns about the environmental impact of blockchain, particularly in energy-intensive proof-of-work models like Bitcoin, new consensus mechanisms (e.g., proof-of-stake) and blockchain networks are focusing on energy efficiency. Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake in 2022, for example, significantly reduced its carbon footprint, contributing to its revival.
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?7. Investment and Innovation
-??????????? Venture capital investment in blockchain startups continues to grow, signaling confidence in the technology’s potential. Blockchain innovation is also expanding with advances in scalability (e.g., Layer 2 solutions), interoperability between different blockchain networks, and privacy-enhancing technologies.
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?8. Tokenisation and Asset Ownership
-??????????? Tokenisation of real-world assets (e.g., real estate, art, intellectual property) is gaining traction, allowing fractional ownership and improving liquidity. This trend is making blockchain a tool for democratising access to traditionally illiquid assets.
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While blockchain still faces challenges such as scalability, regulatory uncertainty, and adoption barriers, its comeback is fueled by its ecosystem's maturing, increasing institutional interest, and new innovations. The narrative around blockchain is shifting from hype to practical applications, solidifying its role as a transformative technology in various sectors.
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Want to know more about Blockchain? Then take a look at our Publication in the community and our musings on The Real Business of Block Chain by David Furlonger and Christopher Uzureau.?
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We would love to hear your thoughts and share them with the community.
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ECONOMIC TRENDS – Living on a knife edge
A mini crisis of confidence materialised in the marketplace at the start of August – the world exchanges took a significant battering as expectations that the FED were behind the curve started to weigh on the markets' patience. A weak jobs report was the catalyst, with traders' inboxes discussing policy errors and the FED letting the economy drift into recession. There was also the in-built euphoria around AI and some discussion about whether consolidation was the order of the day. All of these reasons are valid, but the unwinding of a short bond long equity position in highly illiquid markets did all of the real damage. Short-term interest rates fell, and government bonds benefitted from safe-haven flows, a double whammy of owning what has until recently been seen as an undesirable investment given inflation and the trajectory of interest rates.
The US yield curve, the interest rates applicable to different durations, has now started to invert, which doesn’t normally bode well for the economy. There was also a large withdrawal of investment from China in the first part of the year. Warren Buffet further did some damage by unloading huge amounts of Apple shares, undermining confidence and garnering praise from many.
It is time for the Government to be bold in changing the Bank’s remit
The real economy is proving hard to read, and we sit on a knife edge. It feels like a summer slowdown, but we remain optimistic that growth will remain above expectations and inflation will be sticky but trending lower.
However, we think there is a real possibility that the BoE's remit could change. This could well be a government initiative to foster a growth agenda.?
The Bank of England’s current focus is singular and primarily on inflation control. Specifically, the Bank of England (BoE) maintains price stability, which is defined as keeping inflation at 2% as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The UK government sets this 2% target, which is the central focus of the BoE's monetary policy.
While the Federal Reserve (FED) in the United States has a dual mandate—to promote maximum employment and stable prices—the Bank of England’s remit is more explicitly centred around inflation. However, the BoE does consider the broader economic context, including growth and employment, when setting interest rates and other monetary policies. Suppose inflation is above or below the target. In that case, the BoE may adjust its policies, such as altering the base interest rate to return to the 2% target or adjusting bond purchases and sales to modify the level of longer-term interest rates.
This move could be seen as political and dangerous, but it also could have a powerful psychological effect on the markets, causing some pain to holders of long-term debt.
US Economy – The US economy is slowing down, lowering inflation, which is not bad if you are indebted. The FED rate cut, which we favoured surprise over predictable, is now all but a slam-dunk in September. The problem with flagging your moves and leading a market to them is that when they happen, the impact has all but dissipated into the real economy, and a force at work demands more. Compare the Fed’s rather statesmen, thoughtful approach to the news, direction, and focus New Zealand’s gained by cutting by 25 basis points, but as a surprise. It leaves people guessing, but it firmly says we have noticed a domestic and global trend we want to avoid.
The concern for the US is that the economy, with three months left to drift and amble into the elections, takes a significant nosedive by November. Then, it is a question of the economy leading the swing votes, not the sentiment. The last jobs report was an unpleasant catalyst for the drop in equity markets and the move into bonds. The US yield curve is inverting (longer interest rates lower than shorter rates), all harbingers of a recession.
SOCIAL TRENDS – The Olympics is now setting fashion trends with the inclusion of surfing, breaking, BMX and skateboarding
Love it or hate it, the Olympics of 2024 addressed the falling audience participation of the younger generation, including Gen Z staples and early Gen A, with the inclusion of these sports. Audience numbers for younger watchers grew by 70%. My only thought was, why include something like Breaking in Paris and remove it from the events when it goes to LA next time? The ending ceremony, which culminated with Red Hot Chili Peppers, lent itself to the transference of the flame and the general direction of more relevant events to encourage this participation. ?As an older watcher, I admired the agility and bravery of the skateboarders and BMXers, but the stalking aspects of the breakers challenged me. I felt engaged with the process and admired the clothing designs that continue infiltrating mainstream fashion.
The likes of Nike and Addidas are producing ranges that they class as streetwear, but their attempts to stay connected to the ‘kids’ could backfire when it comes to authenticity. Street fashion has many designers and brands, all of which originated not in the corporate workshops of these companies but at the silk screen presses and cutting tables of artists' conclaves. This connection is part of the culture, and the Olympics may make things mainstream, but it could also drive the core of fashion back underground. Unlike punk, who had Vivienne Westwood drive it onto the catwalks, who is leading the charge on urban clothing?
Shawn Stussy, the entrepreneur and surfer, could make the transition. One final point: e-sports are on the menu in LA. To get ahead of the fashion trend, expect to see e-sports clothing become more prevalent and better designed.?
A-Level results – The memory of failure comes rushing back
I sat my A-levels in the late 70s, so I appreciate that the world has moved on in many ways but not in others. For some, the exhilaration of success is a wonderful thing, and having had some very academically bright friends, when those results came through, it was genuinely heartwarming. Their first choices came to fruition - the future mapped out for them could now start in earnest. For others, myself included, we had to reassess our options. In today’s job market, it is rare for anyone to assess candidates on character rather than academic attainment. That’s brutal because so many of us do not have an academic brain at a young age where theoretical knowledge can be retained. I was fortunate in many ways because failure at one thing motivated me to attain another. Also, at that time, people were less focused on results and seemed more focused on potential. Maybe that’s an assumption informed by a personal experience rather than something well-researched and documented. In the City, where I spent many years working, what started as a meritocracy (I did work with East-End barrow boys) became an academic hierarchy. This begs the question – where is the opportunity for those who don’t make the grade?
Perhaps this is why entrepreneurship, a character-building opportunity, ranks highly in young people’s aspirations.
ADVICE FOR THOSE WHO ARE DISAPPOINTED BY THEIR RESULTS
-??????????? Take a deep breath – this won’t define you unless you let it.
-??????????? Congratulations—you are entering the growth zone and stepping out of your comfort zone. School was comfortable, and University will be the same. Uncertainty is the domain of the real world, and that is where personal growth happens.
-??????????? Grab a notebook – write down a vision of you in the future, draw it, and think about a better place than here
-??????????? Lean into your family – they love you regardless, so use that support and safe place
Get offline. Now is not the time to sit there and watch people celebrate. Be happy for them, but don’t let their success eat away at you. This is a rethink button, so press it.
-??????????? Find a neutral – families will put an arm around you, and neutrals will listen and offer impartial advice. Listen, be a sponge, and assimilate the information. DO NOT MAKE A RUSH TO JUDGEMENT DECISION.
-??????????? Get a job – OK, easier said than done – but I mean get a job, not a career. You will be confused about the future at this stage, and getting a job will help you grow your life skills, put money in the bank, and bring back some confidence and self-worth.
-??????????? Create a learning contract – Make a bargain with yourself – use the next three years to learn as much as you can about life, business, anything. Take courses, modules, and anything for free. ?Join The Weave Community – where lifelong learning is a passion of ours.
Sustainability News – Google has stopped buying carbon offsets and recognises that AI is a resource-hungry beast.
Google’s shift from offsets to carbon capture is a major step towards a cleaner future and a recognition that offsetting the harm done is far more ineffective than one would like. According to an article on Bloomberg , Google is targeting zero emissions by 2030, an ambitious target given that they are generating 48% more in 2023 than in 2019. This growth in emissions is on the back of AI, which is deemed resource-hungry and cannot be offset by cheap purchases of carbon-offsetting activities; what needs to happen is a change in the practices, investment in better business design and cutbacks on travel, all of which are being targeted by Google.
To evidence the environmental cost of AI, bear witness to the phenomenal land grab for data centres. According to Bloomberg, the green fields in Northern Virginia, known for horses and Civil War battlegrounds, are now covered with data centres, 7,000 at the last count. It’s not just the loss of land; it is the energy each centre uses to keep AI technology working. The UK estimates that the energy needed to support AI will grow demand by 500%. The need for renewable energy has never been greater.
Opportunities, far from being overcooked, are probably only just starting, hence the interest in technologies like CorPower Oceans C4 Wave Energy Converter.
How can you get involved? What are the opportunities for small businesses in the world of renewable energy?
The world is changing rapidly. A few months ago, we reported that bifacial solar panels increased production capabilities by 30%. Now, a group of Oxford scientists has developed a surface-coating power-generating material that could be applied to the surface of anything, from backpacks to cars, from tents to buildings, thus removing much of the sunk costs associated with wind farm production.
As a business, staying informed of the latest trends means staying connected to university content and patent applications. It also means looking at potential partnerships that link your value proposition to the latest technologies.
A small business can get involved in producing, delivering, and selling renewable energy through several avenues, depending on its resources, expertise, and market environment. Here are some potential ways to enter the renewable energy sector:
1.??? Production of Renewable Energy
Install and Operate Small-Scale Solar or Wind Farms:
-??????????? Small businesses can invest in solar panels, wind turbines, or other renewable energy technologies and produce energy on a small scale.
-??????????? They can sell the electricity produced to the local grid through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) or feed-in tariffs.
Community Solar Projects:
-??????????? Small businesses can develop community solar projects where multiple households or businesses invest in a shared solar installation.
-??????????? Participants receive energy credits proportional to their share in the project.
?2. Delivery of Renewable Energy
Electricity Brokerage:
-??????????? Small businesses can act as brokers, buying renewable energy from producers and selling it to consumers. This involves aggregating renewable energy from different producers and reselling it to customers at competitive prices.
Energy Cooperatives:
-??????????? Forming or joining an energy cooperative allows small businesses to pool resources with other stakeholders to deliver renewable energy to members. These cooperatives can generate, purchase, and distribute energy directly.
3. Selling Renewable Energy Products
Installers and Contractors:
-??????????? Small businesses can offer installation and maintenance services for solar panels, wind turbines, and other renewable energy systems. This can include residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
Resell Renewable Energy Systems:
-??????????? Becoming a distributor or retailer of renewable energy products such as solar panels, inverters, batteries, and wind turbines can be a profitable avenue.
?Energy Efficiency Consulting:
-??????????? Small businesses can offer consultancy services to help other businesses and homes reduce energy consumption and switch to renewable energy sources. This can include energy audits and advice on integrating renewable energy.
4. Providing Support Services
Software Development:
-??????????? There’s a growing demand for software that helps manage and optimise renewable energy systems. Small businesses can develop platforms for monitoring energy production, consumption, and efficiency, as well as software for electric vehicle (EV) charging management or smart grid integration.
Financial Services:
-??????????? Small businesses can offer specialised financial services, such as helping customers finance renewable energy projects through leasing options, loans, or power purchase agreements.
?5. Microgrid Development
Microgrids:
-??????????? Small businesses can get involved in creating microgrids, which are small, self-sufficient energy systems that can operate independently or in conjunction with the main grid. This is especially useful for remote areas or communities seeking energy independence.
?6. Manufacturing Renewable Energy Components
Manufacturing Components:
-??????????? Another pathway is to enter the supply chain by manufacturing parts for renewable energy systems (e.g., solar panel components, wind turbine blades, and battery systems).
?3D Printing of Parts:
-??????????? Using advanced technologies like 3D printing to produce custom parts for renewable energy installations.
?7. Educational and Training Services
?Workforce Training:
-??????????? Offering training and certification programs for renewable energy technicians and installers.
Public Education:
-??????????? Running campaigns or workshops to educate the public about renewable energy options and sustainability practices.
?8. Electric Vehicle (EV) Infrastructure
Charging Stations:
-??????????? Installing and managing electric vehicle (EV) charging stations powered by renewable energy.
EV Fleet Transition Consulting:
-??????????? Consulting services to help businesses transition to electric fleets, coupled with renewable energy charging solutions.
?9. Renewable Energy Startups
Innovative Solutions:
-??????????? Small businesses can focus on niche areas such as developing new technologies for renewable energy storage, bioenergy, or hydrogen fuel cells.
Partnerships with Larger Companies:
-??????????? Partnering with established renewable energy companies can allow small businesses to focus on specialised services or products while benefiting from the infrastructure and expertise of larger firms.
Key Considerations for Small Businesses:
Local Regulations and Incentives:
-??????????? Understand and leverage government incentives, tax credits, and grants available for renewable energy projects in your region.
Initial Capital and Funding:
-??????????? Renewable energy projects often require significant upfront investment. To raise capital, explore financing options, crowdfunding, or partnerships.
Building Expertise:
-??????????? Renewable energy is a technical field, so developing expertise either through hiring or partnerships with knowledgeable professionals is crucial.
Market Demand:
-??????????? Conduct market research to determine your area's demand for renewable energy products and services. Targeting underserved markets can provide growth opportunities.
Small businesses can effectively enter and thrive in the renewable energy sector by selecting a niche or a combination of these approaches.
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INNOVATION: LEARNING OPPORTUNITIES TO BRING ABOUT VALUABLE CHANGE
“Jack Reacher: ‘I assumed he was involved in killing Franzy and Swan.’
Frances Neagley: ‘What did you teach us? "In an investigation, assumptions kill."’
Too many businesses assume that the problem is understood in the same way by themselves, their customers and the teams designed to deliver the solution. This type of thinking stifles innovation and inevitably leads to shallow solutions that fail to create long-lasting or valuable exchanges. Like any good investigation, innovation must start with a premise that quickly becomes testable.?
Strategic Assumption Testing (SAT)
The concept stems from the work of Richard O. Mason and Ian I. Mitroff in 1981, specifically in their book Challenging Strategic Planning Assumptions: Theory, Cases, and Techniques. The authors introduced a structured approach to questioning and testing assumptions in strategic decision-making, which has become foundational in strategic management and innovation.
The Mason and Mitroff's Model (1981)
Mason and Mitroff’s model revolve around the idea that assumptions underlying strategic decisions are often taken for granted, leading to flawed decisions or strategies. They argued that decision-makers should identify and challenge their assumptions and systematically test them to ensure they align with reality. Their model includes several key ideas that are still relevant today:
1. Identification of Assumptions:
·?????? Entrepreneurs often make an implicit assumption about the external environment, market conditions, resources, and other factors based on their lived experience. Mason and Mitroff emphasised the importance of surfacing these assumptions and making them explicit.
·?????? Looking for causations is part of thinking, so because X happens, Y is the result, and this is an assumption. You can document this by stating, “We believe that …” which makes the assumptions explicit.
2. Testing Assumptions:
·?????? Once identified, assumptions need to be rigorously tested. This involves gathering data, analysing evidence, and using various techniques to determine whether the assumptions are valid or need to be revised.
·?????? Haven’t got customers yet? Don’t fret; at the beginning, we look for evidence of delivery via how people are dealing with the challenge today; we also reach into any community aligned with the problem and start poking around.
·?????? We will test the assumption and define the experiment—and ask ourselves: If the assumption is correct, we would expect this to happen… If it does not happen, we ask ourselves, “Why?”, recording the results as we move forward.
3. Iterative Process:
·?????? Their model is iterative, requiring constant refinement of assumptions based on testing and new information. This process ensures that strategic decisions remain aligned with changing realities.
·?????? Testing is not one-and-done – testing needs to vary the inputs and look for patterns to identify what could happen. You must be scientific about this, set up controls where possible, and keep one set of variables fixed while changing the other.
4. Holistic Approach:
·?????? Mason and Mitroff also introduced the idea that assumption testing should be holistic, considering not just economic or technical factors but also human, political, and cultural dimensions. They argued that a failure to test assumptions across these multiple dimensions could lead to strategic blind spots.
·?????? What are the most significant performance indicators for success? Be clear on how to measure these and capture outcomes.
·?????? Use the PESTEL model to view the opportunity from multiple angles. Not doing the work now will cost money and time, and it will also cost you some of the advantages attained from being the first mover.
Comparison with Modern Strategic Assumption Testing
While the core principles of Strategic Assumption Testing today remain aligned with Mason and Mitroff’s framework, modern applications often emphasise more dynamic and agile methods, particularly in the context of innovation and rapidly changing environments. However, the foundational elements, such as identifying critical assumptions, testing them, and iterating based on feedback, align with their original model.
In contemporary innovation frameworks, SAT is often linked with lean methodologies, design thinking, and agile approaches. These approaches build on Mason and Mitroff's ideas by incorporating real-time testing, rapid iteration, and customer feedback loops. The focus is quickly validating or invalidating assumptions to guide product development and strategy.
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WE NEED YOUR HELP
Founder burnout is real. It costs the UK around ￡11 billion a year, but more importantly, it costs the founders and entrepreneurs trillions in lost dreams.
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Weave and Recreax are partnering to develop an app to support ALL founders in spotting the signs of burnout and taking action that can potentially change outcomes.
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