Aug 2023 - Catching the Wave

“It is our choices… that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities.” –?J.K. Rowling.

A CHANCE TO WIN URI LEVINE'S BOOK AND SIGN-UP FOR THE COMMUNITY BOOK CLUB – READING ROOMS

We are doing this! No, believe me, we are! We are thinking this through. It is not just that we want to stimulate learning and engagement; we want you to experience an end-game moment. That is why Reading Rooms, our book club, will go the whole 9 yards and present you with a formidable opportunity. We learn from what we read; we appreciate what it takes to get a book into the ether, overcoming personal inertia to do it. What if The Weave could help? In our community ranks, we have an expert in the publishing field – a writing coach willing to help us make this breakthrough. We also have the means to help you write and publish the book! Yes, think of that moment when a box of crisply presented books arrives at your home with your name on them. Quite a moment – and The Weave can make this happen.?The course is coming, it won’t be free, but it will be immense. In the meantime, if you want to experience the joys of collective reading, then engage with us – this is our first book:??‘Fall in Love with the Problem, Not the Solution: A Handbook for Entrepreneurs’ by?Uri Levine, the Founder of Waze,?a billion-dollar business that takes the stress out of driving.

Launched this year, the book is packed with smarts and wisdom. I first encountered Uri as a mentor on the Power MBA (great program) and listened and learned intently from him. This is our chance to do the same.

So, if you want to join the book club, which is limited to 15 places, join the community (it’s FREE), and send me a DM in the chat function. I will enter you into the prize draw to win a copy of this book. What have you got to lose? We will then announce the opening of?Reading Rooms,?and those that register first will get in. So,?‘Good luck – Bonne Chance - Buena suerte- Viel Glück - In bocca al lupo - Boa sorte - Lykke til – Powodzenia’ – more about our values of inclusivity.

TRENDS

A monthly horizon scan as we look around at what’s being talked about on a global stage, to what is happening locally. We aim to present fresh opportunities and identify threats we should consider for our businesses.

Headline of the Month?

“Japan’s population drops by nearly 800,000 with falls in every prefecture for the first time.” –?The Guardian 26th?of July 23

Why does this matter? It is a crisis in the making and asks whether Japan can afford to deliver societal support as the birth rate plummets and longevity increases. This is about 1 million people a year that Japan is losing, and by 2070, the population will have fallen from 122 million to 87 million, of which nearly half will be over 65.

The impact includes school closures and small business extinction, as 1.2 million businesses have owners 70 years of age without succession planning. It is even affecting the world of the Yakuza, with geriatric gangsters ruling the roost and senior porn dominating the adult entertainment industry.

According to the IMF, Japan’s demographic shift is a “leading exemplar” of what the Western world can expect. It is proving to be a “test kitchen for shrinkonomics” – a demographic phenomenon changing every aspect of life and determining the future we will face here.?

In the UK, fertility rates have fallen from 1.94 in 2010 to 1.55 in 2020, it is levelling off here, but younger women are showing more signs of slowing, whilst older women have seen a moderate increase. Anecdotally this might imply the shift in choosing to have fewer children and leaving it to later in life.?Japan, though, is not us. That’s true; their baby boom lasted less time than ours. Coupled with a life expectancy that is greater than ours and immigration flows which are less, the mix appears less potent. Despite the anomalies between the two and considering each of those elements, the trend is still worrying; we are producing fewer babies and dying later, becoming economically inactive in the process – and now, we are fighting the forces of immigration. The great growth Ponzi scheme could come off the rails unless we maximise the effectiveness of our talent pool.

To respond, we must create a strategy for talent.

I recently read an HBR piece encouraging us to consider talent like any supply chain. In the article by Joseph Fuller, an academic and Matt Sigelman, a consultant involved in Harvard’s Project on Workforce and published on Nov 21, observed that “since the 1960s, we’ve witnessed a slide toward increasingly transactional employment relationships”, a comment that surprised me. It is not that we haven’t seen transactional employment become commonplace, hire and fire is essentially a strategy for survival, but that this trend is continuing.

When a business hits the growth buffers, the first button pushed is the re-organisation one. We expel those once deemed positive contributors to sit on the pile now labelled ineffective. The challenge is that the workforce is shrinking. The Japan situation, mirrored here in the UK and the West, is seeing a declining pool of available people, increasing the price for labour and placing upward pressure on prices.

The authors’ argument is this: if you were a Ford Motors and wanted to line up a supply of ball bearings, you wouldn’t start the process a month before the need; you would be planning way in advance. The case for talent is the same – we must plan our pipelines, lubricate channels and ultimately align our roadmap to what we plan to need. In the past, tight labour conditions have been alleviated via rising interest rates and recessions, forcing businesses to push the button and shed labour only to rehire when things return to growth quickly. A declining supply chain keeps things tighter for longer; meaning rates are incompatible with the next inflationary bubble.

In the UK – we are adding petrol to a smouldering fire by turning off the immigration hose. Yes, politically expedient to get reelected, but it is not economically prudent when the world is competing for available talent.

The authors offer three strategies to alleviate the problem:

• Widen your net?– inevitably, we seek talent from a contained pond when we should be swimming in the ocean. There has never been a better time to consider how to widen the talent pool. The neuro-diverse community are a hidden workforce, as are the disabled. Today’s remote working environment works best with those less mobile and perhaps less willing to engage. One business you could contact is?Startup Sherpas, which works with young people and people from neurodiverse backgrounds. I met with their Director of Strategic Partnerships,?Felix?Trusler, who was knowledgeable and helpful.
• Employers must invest in “growing their own?– A drum we keep on banging, but years of experience in hiring people has taught me one thing, when we act under pressure, the wrong metrics of availability and price dominate selection rather than alignment and passion. You are the leader of your business, so be the leader of others. The jobs we create are not fixed; they must offer development opportunities. Let your employees design their roles, explore ways to grow their capabilities, and add value directly to you.
• Employers need to implement fundamental principles of supply-chain management?– How? Build the talent pipeline by engaging with colleges, universities and schools. The weave is working with a university student and building an internship model with Kingswood Group and the University of Essex. I want to see businesses nurturing a pool of talent from multiple sources. If you do not believe in the future of the business, why should anyone else? To grow, you need a mix of technology and talent; invest in your supply chain, nurture it, and pay it forward.?

To see our businesses, prosper, we must recognise the challenges and headwinds we face. What can you do to your business model to make it far more relevant for the shifting sands of demographic change? Not an issue – well, if you have aspirations to grow, it soon will be.

FINANCIAL TRENDS

The Funding Landscape is becoming increasingly dynamic – here’s what you need to focus on.

Two topics garner the most attention from investors, the first, AI and the second carbon removal.?If you combine both elements in a punchy, platform-based solution, you could be in for a few million of investment. According to CrunchBase news, AI is becoming the condiment of choice; much like salt adds flavour to almost everything, AI is a must-have ingredient when added to the startup stew. When AI meets carbon, the lowly stew becomes a cordon-bleu experience.

AI is seen through the lens of human productivity, it does the analysis and presents some clarity to the data it devours, but in the world of carbon removal, AI can police itself.?The article, written by Joanna Glasner and published on the 3rd?of August, analyses 15 companies that are attracting the big bucks operating in this space. Over the last two years, $400 million has been put to work in the AI Carbon removal world. From unmanned surface vehicles to tracking and offsetting, AI is doing the heavy lifting and could save the planet from a meltdown.

Look at the work of?Small99?and get involved in their Carbon Reduction planning process. As embryonic businesses eager to get to the next stage, you have to have a plan for the future.

SOCIAL TRENDS

Financial hardship and the fallout of interest rate rises.

The Bank of England (BoE) maintains its hawkish stance over the economy despite recent falls in inflation.?It is unlikely to be modified as a stance unless the bottom drops out of the global markets and we walk headlong into another unforeseen crisis. I am not predicting anything dramatic, but I did not foresee the war in Europe, though we identified inflation as a threat post-pandemic.

On that score, we should count ourselves fortunate that we are not suffering what Argentina is. Inflation there has just busted the 100% Y-o-Y number - this hyperinflation, though a distant memory in Europe, and dismissed as wholly unlikely in the UK, carries with it social consequences and real human hardship. The political landscape is also hardening as the far right takes another big bite of the electoral pie. For us in the UK, we could see a few worrying headlines around the Falkland Islands and ownership. Still, for Argentinians, the consequence of buying power collapsing is a negative spiral we want to avoid. The Central Bank is being blamed as the money supply is out of control, and the printing presses have been hard at work.

For those with a long memory, rates of 5.25% are not high, but for those whose only experience is having a BoE driving base rate of near zero and beyond and keeping them there for a crazy length of time, this is penal. I have always wondered what quantitative easing looks like without a clear strategy for quantitative tightening. Isn't that printing press stuff? The BoE is busy selling assets it bought when rates were low, and it cannot truly reverse the QE with QT without destroying the bond markets. Buying assets at all-time highs and selling them at lows is another cheque the exchequer is writing to the banking sector.?

The consequences for the economy are becoming more real. A recent FSB survey highlights the downward impact of this on confidence in the small business sector. We tend to talk ourselves into things here in the UK; that’s not to say we shouldn’t be concerned. The opposite is true, where we go to hell for leather and overreach. So, what should we do?

Triad of Financial Bliss

We have a philosophy at The Weave called the Triad of Financial Bliss. Three areas of work that, when we focus on them, we build resilience and opportunity into what we do.

Let’s consider two primary areas of activity in this tight liquidity situation.

Obtain?– where are our sources of cash? This isn’t just about extended lines of credit, which sometimes works, but about areas of activity we can control. The first thing to do is reevaluate your existing business model and revenue streams, yes, plural! Too many businesses have one mode and fail to realise that they need an ecosystem of revenues to build resilience. There are many ways of innovating revenues, not least by modifying your value proposition, dynamic pricing models and listening to what our customers want. If you want more information on this, contact us via the community. Other areas to look at are investment strategies, from crowdfunding initiatives to investment readiness. It takes time to turn the tap on, but preparation ahead of need pays dividends.

The second area of work is?control. We cannot manage what we do not measure. Therefore, we need to implement some key measures and adhere to them. When do you normally run dry of cash? What are the catalysts for this, seasonality, poor terms of trade, and ineffective cash conversion cycle (if you do not know what that is, talk to your accountant)? Have you lost control of your expenses and spending too much? We teach the Profit First system in The Weave, not from the textbook but because we adhere to it, and have experience of how it can help.

Get these systems in place and see that marginal changes make a real difference to the cash flow of your business. Get in touch if you want to know more.

TECHNOLOGY NEWS – ADVICE & GUIDANCE?

BY ADAM ROXBY CTO

How to get the most out of Generative AI?

Harnessing the limitless potential of generative AI, Adam Roxby presents an informational guide to accessing maximum benefit from this groundbreaking technology. Beginning with basic tips on specificity and grammar input, the mastery of ChatGPT is masterfully demonstrated through targeted questions, contextual awareness, priming, and personas.

Take heed—rubbish in, rubbish out. Detail your requests carefully, be aware of your target audience, and provide pertinent context for the AI to draw upon.

Could you explain the power of priming? Please provide relevant examples or prepare them by exposing them to your writing style.

Personas can also be beneficial–assign one to your AI assistant for realistic conversational interactions.

Finally, credit to YouTube educator Sergio, whose poignant suggestions helped inform our approach to working with

Heed this advice and unlock the vast potential of generative AI.

Read our blog for the complete picture.

EVENTS AND PROGRAMMES?

AS SOON AS THE ESSEX BUSINESS ACCELERATOR IS UP AND RUNNING, WE FIND OURSELVES HEADING TOWARDS THE FINAL PITCH.?

The Essex Business Accelerator is a unique cohort-based systemic learning journey. We build confidence, and we holistically build businesses. The journey outlined here touches upon the route, but the confidence our methodology provides is a real game-changer for me. We are delighted to be working with such a diverse crowd once more. We now have a break and come back together on the 22nd?to practice the pitch for delivery on the 28th. If you want to know what this program can deliver, you have one more chance to engage with it as the final iteration starts in October. Then we will revamp it and find a way to deliver this as a core of our educational program.

If you?JOIN OUR COMMUNITY,?you can see who else is inspired to get involved.

MENTORING – OUR CALL TO ARMS?

It took courage and self-belief to start offering my services as a mentor. Not least if anyone would find my experiences relevant to their own, did I have a deep enough network to share, and would anyone value, let alone pay for, what I had to offer? After redundancy, when my confidence was low, and I struggled to find a place for myself, I reached out to others for guidance. Each interaction was a learning moment and shaped a fresh direction in my mind.

A few years since that event, I have many years of supporting and guiding people along a new pathway. The Weave believes mentoring is vital for any startup and entrepreneur. It is a tricky journey, full of change and uncertainty; we do not mentor to impose; we mentor to facilitate choices, shine a light on the road ahead, and not direct the traffic to a specific point.

You need to join our mentoring team if you see yourself as wise, full of experience and with limitless empathy. This is a journey of self-discovery that you will not regret, it becomes a passion, and when you see the good you can do, it will fulfil you.

Reach out to us at?[email protected]?– place Mentor in the subject line, and we will arrange a call.?

STILL TAKING THE TEMPERATURE AND THANKS TO THOSE WHO HAVE TAKEN OUR SURVEY - WE ARE ON THE ROAD TO HELPING THE NHS CELEBRATE 75-YEARS

We have a passion to get it right – a belief that we can convert aspiration into economic gain for you, the region and the next generation. To help us shape what matters and learn more about every one of you, please take our survey?https://the-weave.mn.co/posts/38811828?utm_source=manual??

PROJECTS, NEWS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS?

We remain focused on the community and have started to put into place some of what some of you have asked for. The first ask was about clarity – why The Weave? Well, the first thing to say, and perhaps we have not made this clear, is that the community IS YOUR COMMUNITY, not OURS. What we mean by that is that as the numbers grow, so do the opportunities to engage with each other. We call that the Network Effect. There is no reason why you can’t guest blog here, sell your services and products through the medium of the word, or test out new ideas and gain feedback. We are open to distributing your podcasts; if you want to cohost an online event, we can help and have the technology. If you need some advice and feedback about the website – we will give it, and if you want to learn something specific, we probably know a few people who could help. Our role is to facilitate the community – we don’t own it – we manage it. This message will take time to percolate through – but we are sure, bit by bit – you will see the value of it. That’s why it’s FREE –we cannot nor would not charge for your safe space.?

What’s next??

• Launch of Episode Three of Interwoven features an amazing interview with?John Elkington, the godfather of sustainability. No joking – this guy has written 20 books, talked to world leaders, and spoken with us. We want to get this podcast spot on – so it may take a little longer to put together – but it will be amazing. He is a former alumnus of Essex, a radical thinker, and we will give away three copies of his latest book Green Swans, to three lucky Weave Members – those who have spread the word!
• More meetings for the Planning stages for a 2024 sustainability event in partnership with a number, yet to be confirmed, sustainability gurus – a practical delivery piece. Small99 and Climbing Trees are in partnership with us, and we are in discussions with Sarah Brockwell about how we might use the Novo Awards to encourage sustainable and social innovation.?
• End of summer open-innovation event – who is up for a face-to-face? We are considering organising a networking event at the University Innovation Centre – Build a Social Business Pizza Party. If you are interested, send a message to?[email protected]?and headline it Up for It -??

See you next month - Please share and join the community. It's free to join and packed full of the really good stuff

James & The Team at The Weave